Poll: Trump dominating Rubio in Florida, Kasich in Ohio

Politico ^ | 3/9/16 | ELIZA COLLINS

[Ancesthntr]

“Rubio & Kasich are you’re best friends, why would any Trump supporter want them out?”

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Absolutely. I am PRAYING that Rubio stays in until the FL primary - it ENSURES a Trump victory and 99 delegates (plus, of course, even more momentum). WRT Kasich, last night’s results in Michigan clearly indicate that he’s not getting the traction that he needs to win OH. If Trump wins both FL and OH, it is pretty much “game over” for the nomination. Between actual delegates won (and there ARE other significant states on the line that day, too) and the momentum boost, Trump will be pretty much unstoppable. This will be pretty much over, for practical purposes, by the end of the month - I estimate that Trump will have over 800 delegates by then, roughly 2/3 of what he needs. By April 26, he will almost certainly be at around 1100. At that point, he only needs to win California (172 delegates) and it is all over (and Cruz won’t win CA unless Trump is dead or has dropped out, neither of which is likely).

[Ancesthntr]

Trump was up at around 48% in Michigan last night - WITH Kasich and Rubio in the race. Thus, I don’t believe in the “ceiling” that you’re talking about. At a certain point, the mathematics of anyone else winning become either prohibitive or outright impossible. If Trump takes FL and OH, which the polls seem to indicate is likely, then Cruz would just about need to run the table on everything else besides NY (which will NEVER vote for Cruz, and that’s 95 winner-take-all delegates). That isn’t going to happen.

You are also ignoring the momentum that winning produces. People generally don’t like to vote for someone who they believe will lose. That pushes people into Trump’s camp.

Anyway, it ISN’T a fallacious argument - the meme that the GOPe is pushing is what is fallacious. It automatically assumes that all those not voting for Trump now, when there are several other candidates, won’t vote for him (i.e. that he’s not their #2 choice), and that ALL of those not voting for Cruz now will do so. THAT is fallacious. FYI, Trump is the #2 choice for a LOT of voters who are just sick and tired of the GOPe and their betrayal of both the voters and the country over the last couple of generations.

[combat_boots]

I agree.

A ‘ceiling’ for anyone in a 5 or 6-candidate race is going to go up when others drop out. It’s math.

[Ancesthntr]

Correction: Trump wasn’t at 48% in MI, he was at 37% - my bad. However, I still contend that he will get a substantial portion of the voters from anyone who drops out. It isn’t an all or nothing thing.

[deport]

I hear that Rubio is going to run 3rd party, on the Foam Party ticket.

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Or we could have Rubio and Cruz on the same ticket and call it the SSP

Short and Shorter Party

[gogeo]

I do believe there is indeed a Trump “ceiling” of around 40 to 45%.

Well, that's progress, I guess.

[pine tree lover]

All I want before I die is too see a trump/hillary debate where he turns to her and in his best Chevy Chase voice says “ hillary you ignorant slut” He knows her laundry list well. Unlike most he will throw the bomb,not just nuzzle it

[Kenny]

Rubio is now begging supporters to give him another chance. He guarantees he can win.

Didn’t he just do this bit?

[Signalman]

I’ve heard more than a few Dems on Fox News claim that they would rather run against Cruz than Trump.

Cruz has no chance of taking any blue states like NY, NJ, PA or MA, but Trump does.

Trump can get millions of Reagan Dems to vote for him.

[Big Horn]

You mean they could defeat Clinton?

[The_Republic_Of_Maine]

Now that’s funny.

Thanks for the good laugh, lying Cruz + Kasich = victory, victory of what?