Senator Cruz, Governor Kasich, It's Decision Time

My own workup | 03/16/2016 | DoughtyOne / for Free Republic

[DoughtyOne]

The long 2016 presidential campaign trail is nearing the end.  One person now has a chance of winning the delegates needed to avoid a floor fight at the Republican Convention this July in Cleveland, Ohio.  That man is Donald J. Trump.

Out of a field of seventeen, three men are left standing.  Two of them have a question to ponder.  That question is this.

Senator Cruz, Governor Kasich, what do you two want your legacy to be?

At the current time, Senator Cruz needs 84% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot.  Governor Kasich needs 111% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot.

Kasich is mathematically eliminated from any chance of a first ballot win.  Ted Cruz is almost certainly in the same boat.

For Ted to win the delegates necessary, Kasich would have to drop out now, and Trump would have to win less than 16% of the remaining delegates.

Trump needs 57% of the remaining delegates.  For him not to get them, Kasich would have to stay in and between him and Ted Cruz, they would have to win more then 43% of the remaining delegates.  That is not going to happen.

This leaves these men with two choices.  Here they are.

1. These two men can stay in the race until the bitter end mid-June, and be seen as trying unsuccessfully to deny Donald Trump a victory he has earned.  Failing miserably, they will not even bring this to a convention floor fight, the only remote possibilty they have.  If they do this, they will forever be seen as GOPe waterboys.

2. These two men can recognize the futility of remaining in the race, suspend their campaigns at once, and graciously congratulate Trump on a well fought victory.  Thus they will be seen as two men who were gracious in defeat.

Each day these men opt for number one, they increase the public's perception of the outcome I outlined.  It is to each of their advantage, to accept option two at the earliest opportunity.

These figures make that very clear.



These figures will morph as more delegates are assigned over the next day or so...

[fooman]

Because Kaisch is speaking out against Trump’s slash and burn tactics.

Even Carson thought it was distasteful to endorse Trump.

Hard feelings for Trump could combine strange bedfellows.

[TexasCajun]

Haters Hate!

I take you don't want or need Ted Cruz's help to secure the nomination!

Ted Cruz sided with civility!

[Teacher317]

Cruz has no path to winning.

You wish, but with a 2-man race, and with Trump having a clear ceiling of 49% (his best result, in ultra-liberal MASS, and only 46% of delegates), Cruz can easily get to 1237 with all of the winner-take-all states coming up. Cruz's path to victory is simply Kasich dropping out.

OUR path to victory is Kasich dropping out. If he does, we get Trump or Cruz... if he doesn't, we get the Convention, and the GOP blows up when they name Mitt or Huckabee.

In every pathway, Hillary wins in the end... except against Cruz, and only if Kasich drops out really soon, and only if the Trump Ceiling exists. Otherwise, it is Hillary.

[Religion and Politics]

I hope that now, after last night (Trump, 5; Cruz, ZERO)...

Nice touch, and I agree since we are using Ted Cruz score keeping rules. So let's add the Mariana Island Caucuses and Trump spanked Cruz yesterday 6 to 0, a clean sweep!

[TexasCajun]

Such sore winners.

Haters gonna Hate!

[TexasCajun]

Ted Cruz was anti-establishment when Donald Trump was still a Democrat.

All you Haters were singing Cruz's praise while he was fighting Obama & Mitch McConnell.

..till you got distracted by the Celebrity Candidate.

Never seen a bigger bunch of Sore-Winners.

Never coming together for most of you.

[Solson]

Ted Cruz is a sitting Senator who has been tied to DC since 28 years old. He is a rule follower and, just like Ed Rogers said in the Halperin video, Republicans "get in line" and Trump, not Cruz, is interrupting this cycle.

That doesn't mean that Cruz is not a Conservative - he clearly is and a good one. But he is establishment.

[Velvet_Jones]

Cruz is in a race. He is the ONLY candidate to win over 50% in ANY state, and the GOP rules require 8 such simple majority wins. Trump has none.

You misunderstood the rules. They have to win 50% of the delegates, not 50% of the raw vote. Cruz has 4 qualifying states, Trump has 10.

[fooman]

amen

[Timmy]

Stupid post. Why would over half the party who vehemently opposes Trump simply stand down and allow him the nomination?

[spel_grammer_an_punct_polise]

“There is a meeting in DC today to start a conservative party.”

Do you have more information about that or a source?

[fooman]

Hannity’s Show. Eric Erikson is leading it.

They asked Mark Levin to go, but he said no.

[Belteshazzar]

Well, gg188, if Hillary wanted help in conducting her own version of “Operation Chaos” among conservatives she would want someone just like you to help her. Or are you already voluntarily helping her?

[Hawthorn]

Ivy League school, elite associates, three beautiful wives, a penthouse in Manhattan, a mansion in Palm Beach, donations to the Clinton Foundation, friends like Harry Reid, George Soros and Rudy Giuliani, you can’t get much more establishment than that.

[fooman]

Easy does it. While I dont agree with the premise, my hope is that by gaming out the scenarios, Trump and his supporters will realize they need to form an effective alliance.

Best win/win outcome is Trump/Cruz.

But that wont happen in a slash and burn environment.

[reviled downesdad]

Cruz is a statesman and an honorable man.
He will suspend as soon as it’s clear he either mathematical unable to gain the needed delegates or it’s unequivocally clear that Trump will.

Till then, it’s fight a worth fighting and I applaud him for fighting.

Kathy Kasich not dropping out shows that he is a man without honor.

[fortheDeclaration]

Keep repeating the mantra that only Cruz can beat Hillary, it might make it so!

Trump is going to crush Hillary in the general election.

He can actually force Democrats to defend Blue States, Cruz cannot.

[txjeep]

Exactly

[fortheDeclaration]

He wasn’t fighting the Establishment when he voted to give Obama Fast Track authority!

[fortheDeclaration]

I bet he doesn't drop out until Trump has the exact number to win the nomination.

Cruz has not shown himself to be an honorable man at all!