Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Risk Analysis Group Says a Donald Trump Presidency Would Drag Down Global Growth
http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/03/16/risk-analysis-group-says-a-donald-trump-presidency-would-drag-down-global-growth/ ^ | 03/17/2016 | Alan Rappeport

Posted on 03/17/2016 8:41:56 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

click here to read article


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-79 last
To: SeekAndFind

We can only hope this guy is correct...It’s time we quit growing China and Indonesia and India...


61 posted on 03/17/2016 10:32:49 AM PDT by Iscool (Trump will Triumph)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LS
Thanks for chiming in with factual analysis. Of course there were many factors in the great Depression, and those simply blaming Tariffs are ignoring other factors, including some that are still in play--including exploding speculation on high margins.

It is certainly an interesting side note in the present campaign, how often it is the Trump supporters that rely on balanced facts--that is more of the actual context--than some of his detractors.

Cheers!

62 posted on 03/17/2016 10:39:47 AM PDT by Ohioan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 56 | View Replies]

To: central_va; LS; Ohioan

International trade was less the 5% of the American gross national product in the years before the Depression. We produced virtually everything that we consumed. Food. Steel. Oil. Coal. Clothing. Cars. Trains. Airplanes. Household items. America was full of factories.

Our main imports were things like coffee and bananas that don’t grow here.

If Smoot-Hawley cut off all international trade that would have affected a mere 5% of the GNP. And of course Smoot-Hawley did nothing of the sort, it was only marginally different from the Fordney-McCumber tariff that had been in effect since 1922.

The real cause of the Great Depression was the collapse of the American banking system that resulted in a 30% contraction of the American money supply. And this was the result of a series of very bad decisions by the Fed, the absence of FDIC insurance, and restrictive American branch banking laws.

Smoot-Hawley and Black Friday on the stock market happened around the same time and the popular press has focused on them as the cause of the Great Depression ever since. They weren’t the cause. It was a monetary and banking phenomenon, and much worse in America than anywhere else because it was our banking system and money supply where the problem originated.


63 posted on 03/17/2016 10:45:39 AM PDT by Pelham (more than election. Revolution)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 59 | View Replies]

To: Pelham
What particularly stands out in the flap over the effect of Tariffs, is that those making the attack on Trump only rely on their claims of the "macro" economic statistics. They show little empathy or concern for all the local dislocations in towns & counties across America, which are completely masked by macro aggregations of data.

It appears that the Trump haters simply do not care about what is happening to rooted American communities. This is just an academic argument over one type of taxation--and they ignore other types of taxation in that argument--to those willing to take the lowest possible road to tear down Donald Trump.

64 posted on 03/17/2016 10:46:16 AM PDT by Ohioan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 60 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

So what is better, continuing to add gas to a huge bubble, or finding a way to let some of the dangerous overfill out of it and rebalancing the system?


65 posted on 03/17/2016 10:48:16 AM PDT by Albion Wilde (Who can actually defeat the Democrats in 2016? -- the most important thing about all candidates.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Gamecock; Larry Lucido; PROCON; KC_Lion; FredZarguna

I don’t wanna date anyone who’s mentoring a Banya!

Well, I don’t wanna date anyone whose mentor is a Costanza!


66 posted on 03/17/2016 10:51:06 AM PDT by SaveFerris (Be a blessing to a stranger today for some have entertained angels unaware)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Don’t tell me, I’ll bet the study also predicted that women and children would be hurt most.


67 posted on 03/17/2016 10:58:54 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ohioan

“They show little empathy or concern for all the local dislocations in towns & counties across America, which are completely masked by macro aggregations of data.
It appears that the Trump haters simply do not care about what is happening to rooted American communities. “

You’ve hit the crux of the issue. This is one of the big divisions between conservatives and libertarians and it’s why Russell Kirk couldn’t stand them. And it’s not just empathy, although that’s important, there are real financial and social costs that result when employment vanishes. Welfare, drug abuse, family breakdown, crime all follow in its wake.

For libertarians of the social Darwinist bent none of this is a concern. In their comic book world communities are invisible. They are like the flip side of the materialism that they share with Marxists.


68 posted on 03/17/2016 11:04:21 AM PDT by Pelham (more than election. Revolution)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 64 | View Replies]

To: Pelham
You make an excellent point as to the side effects of what has been done to rooted American communities across the sub-continent. I would, however, disagree with your calling those without empathy--or real community identification--as "libertarians."

The Founders were libertarians, and they certainly understood the importance of strong local communities, each with a unique culture, values & heritage. The present notion that drug abusing, self-centered types who thumb their noses at the traditional moral compass in their communities, are actually "libertarians" as opposed to being amoral degenerates, needs to be challenged.

Put another way. There is no clearer example of actual libertarian thought than the understanding that a community has the right to impose the high moral compass that its founders and members desire on their unique communities. It is the fact that communities have different approaches to social issues, which is why--in my opinion--the Founders refrained from giving the Federal Government any say on what we call the Police Powers of the States: Health, Safety & Morals.

But, again, we are in complete agreement--labels aside--on the terrible social harvest from the contemporary economic dislocations; especially when coupled with the decisions of activist Judges, which take away the Constitutional Rights of communities to preserve their traditional moral compass.

69 posted on 03/17/2016 11:22:29 AM PDT by Ohioan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 68 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

A Slimes nothing burger. Yummy.


70 posted on 03/17/2016 11:22:51 AM PDT by TheStickman (If we don't elect a PRO-America president in 2016 we lose the country!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Pelham

Agreed. But don’t forget Hoover and his taxes, followed by FDR and his minimum wage disaster that halted ALL hiring after 1934.


71 posted on 03/17/2016 11:27:39 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 63 | View Replies]

To: Pelham

I remember that book.


72 posted on 03/17/2016 11:34:17 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 60 | View Replies]

To: Ohioan

“I would, however, disagree with your calling those without empathy—or real community identification—as “libertarians.” “

I qualified them as ‘libertarians of the social Darwinist bent’ for what that’s worth. I was thinking primarily of those who are hostile to the conservatism of Robert Nisbet and Russell Kirk, the sort who make an idol of the market. Limbaugh has a bit too much of that, although I’m certain he’s never read Nisbet and probably little of Kirk.


73 posted on 03/17/2016 11:34:54 AM PDT by Pelham (more than election. Revolution)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 69 | View Replies]

To: LS

Well those sure didn’t help, the same as Smoot-Hawley, but they are like flesh wounds whereas the banking collapse was the patient having his leg chopped off.

Without 30% of the money supply vanishing the Great Depression would have been just another bad recession, made worse by Hoover and FDR’s meddling much like Nixon and Carter with their wage and price controls.

Schumpeter is the first I know who spotted the role of the banking system and branch banking laws in particular. He wrote about this in the 30s IIRC. I can’t remember where I read it, I used to pick up every book of his I could find. It may have been his book on business cycles but I’m not certain.


74 posted on 03/17/2016 11:47:18 AM PDT by Pelham (more than election. Revolution)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 71 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Global growth is that the transfer of everything to Soros and friends?


75 posted on 03/17/2016 11:50:23 AM PDT by niki
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LS

I haven’t picked it up but I may. I used to follow Prestowitz’s writing back in the Reagan years and read his Trading Places. Read that and Manufacturing Matters and few similar books that convinced me that our trade policy was foolish beyond belief.

Our competitors use keiretsus and chaebols and were targeting high value added industries to provide valuable employment for their people. We had idiots who literally said it didn’t make any difference whether we made potato chips or computer chips (GHW Bush trade rep IIRC). The ancillary benefits of high value added industries are understood by our rivals. Our side doesn’t even know the idea exists.


76 posted on 03/17/2016 11:58:20 AM PDT by Pelham (more than election. Revolution)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 72 | View Replies]

To: Pelham
Those who fail to look at the fuller context of any species of human interaction--who fail to recognize the social component of all human interaction--need to be viewed as distinct from those who are able to view the interactive dynamic in its fuller context. Regardless of their emotional identification, they are seriously handicapped by a form of myopia.

While those emotionally on our side will still seek reality--however less effectively than those who appreciate the fuller context;--it is the handicap in perception, I think, which makes it easy for the Leftist to embrace the philosophic fantasy that drives all egalitarian collectivist movements.

77 posted on 03/17/2016 11:58:43 AM PDT by Ohioan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 73 | View Replies]

To: niki

The sort of transfer you refer to, of course, is masked in the world of macro economics. This point—and it is a slight exaggeration, but still valid—is lost on many who treat “free trade,” as something never to be questioned, even when it is not working out because of an impediment such as Soros, a man without a moral compass.


78 posted on 03/17/2016 12:03:30 PM PDT by Ohioan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 75 | View Replies]

To: Ohioan

“Regardless of their emotional identification, they are seriously handicapped by a form of myopia.”

Asperger’s Syndrome is what they make me think of.


79 posted on 03/17/2016 12:03:31 PM PDT by Pelham (more than election. Revolution)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 77 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-79 last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson