MY STATE NOW, PAL: Gov Scott Walker has solid polling numbers behind him among Republicans in Wisconsin. So why would Donald Trump come her to pick a fight?
Posted on 03/30/2016 4:10:53 PM PDT by afraidfortherepublic
MADISON, Wis. - Donald Trump just walked into a political buzz saw in Wisconsin.
The latest Marquette Law School poll, released Wednesday, just six days before the Badger State votes in the presidential primary election, shows Texas Sen. Ted Cruz with a 10 percent lead over the billionaire "anti-establishment" Trump.
But what the numbers might underscore more than anything is most conservatives in Wisconsin like Gov. Scott Walker, and a sizable majority don’t care for Donald Trump.
"Walker has an 80 percent approval level among GOP primary likely voters, with just 17 percent disapproving. That is strong support within the party," said Marquette Law School public policy professor Charles Franklin, who conducted the poll.
Trump's Walker bashing on conservative talk radio and at rallies this week probably didn't help his cause, although the poll was conducted March 24-28, before the candidates descended on Wisconsin full force in advance of the April 5 primary.
Cruz picked up support from 40 percent of likely voters to 30 percent for Trump, with 21 percent for Ohio Gov. John Kasich, according to the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.8 percentage points.
On the Democrat side, Bernie Sanders holds a 49 percent to 45 percent edge over Hillary Clinton among likely voters in the Wisconsin Democratic Party primary. That survey, however, has an error rate of plus or minus 6.3 percentage points.
And despite the salacious headlines of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and other mainstream news outlets, Supreme Court Justice Rebecca Bradley holds a 5-percentage point advantage in her race against appeals court Judge JoAnne Kloppenburg, at 41 percent to 36 percent. The number of undecided voters is significantly higher, at 18 percent, in a poll with a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.
Bradley's lead has only widened since a left-wing group pushed a story about anti-gay columns Bradley wrote while a college student and the Journal Sentinel published a misleading piece accusing Bradley of an extramarital affair.
After Walker gave his endorsement to Cruz Tuesday, Trump seemed to go back on the attack against his former political opponent. During Walker's short-lived presidential run, Trump went after the Republican governor on his handling of the economy, firing off faulty data to make his case that Wisconsin's economy was failing. The billionaire's assertions were shot down as erroneous at best, but after Walker announced his support for Trump’s bitter rival, Trump regurgitated the same false talking points on the airwaves and at rallies.
The latest Marquette poll numbers suggest a validation among Republicans for all things Scott Walker and a repudiation for all things not Scott Walker.
"Walker's support among Republicans still is very high... They still think he’s doing a good job," said Charles Jacobs, political science professor at St. Norbert College. "There is a miscalculation there if (Trump) thinks Wisconsin Republican voters have thrown Walker under the bus and he's done. Republicans still like him. They want him to run for a third term."
Jacobs attended the Trump rally at St. Norbert Wednesday, where at one point Trump began giving the approximately 200 students on hand a lecture on how to be successful in life.
Why would Trump want to pick a fight with Walker? That's The Donald, pundits say. The anti-establishment candidate persona lives on, even to the detriment of Trump's campaign.
Among likely Republican primary voters, 23 percent say they are very uncomfortable with the idea of Trump as president. Another 14 percent say the same for Cruz, while 5 percent are very uncomfortable with Kasich.
Trump's act might just be played out in the Badger State, Jacobs said, adding that he was a bit surprised by Cruz’s double-digit lead.
"What we have been seeing over the last several weeks is some of what is attractive about Trump might be growing a bit stale," he said. "He constantly has to outdo himself. He's like the showy kid in elementary school who one day blows milk through his nose and the next day has to find something new to do."
Could Wisconsin be Trump's political Waterloo? Perhaps. But like everything else in this contest, it's a numbers game.
"Trump gets 44 percent from those who disapprove of Scott Walker, and just 27 percent among those who do," Franklin said. "So maybe he knows his base and is playing to it."
That's probably not enough to win Wisconsin, but it has and may well play somewhere else, as the delegate chase moves on after next Tuesday.
MY STATE NOW, PAL: Gov Scott Walker has solid polling numbers behind him among Republicans in Wisconsin. So why would Donald Trump come her to pick a fight?
Trump miscalculates Wisconsin voters as he launches campaign here.
FReep Mail me if you want on, or off, this wisconsin interest ping list.
Well, Madison Wisconsin is probably the most liberal hell-hole in the country. No wonder they don’t like Trump.
So Cruz wins WI, the GOPe, msm, etc pile on Trump, Cruz gets the nomination and then loses to Hillary.
Great.
Cruz can’t win FL or OH.
He can’t win, the GOPe know it, when he loses they will blame Trump voters.
Donald Trump going DOWWWWWWN... Folks. And Wisconsin will be the opening salvo to stop him and also impediment him from the 1237 delegates. ;-)
get used to saying “President Clinton” again. It’s only 8 more years.
Can you explain what that means? Is English your second language?
The Marquette poll was 471 likely voters: 40% Cruz, 30% Trump, with 5.8 point margin of error.
The previous Optimus poll was 6182 likely voters: 31% Trump, 27% Cruz, with 1.1 point margin of error.
The Never Trump people have nobody to blame but themselves. They decided not to play fair with Trump or Trump voters, we owe them nothing. Cruz is the uni-party, offers nothing new.
I agree he’s been making mistakes for a week or two. Know what he needs to do but he’s not listening.
get used to saying “President Clinton” again. It’s only 8 more years.
If that happens the GOPe will blame Trump supporters. It’s already be formulated.
Dubya, the “compassionate conservative” won both of those states, but a stalwart conservative can’t? Sure you’re at the right website?
I live in WI and Cruz's support is a mile wide and an inch deep. These polls are meaningless. Trump is attacking Walker because he's trying to get Dem and union voters to crossover for him. It's simply smart politics and Walker is nowhere near as popular as he was in 2011.
Whenever Cruz is tanking, which is always, we are bombarded with endless polls and stories about how Trump cannot possibly win. Pathetic, actually.
Is WI an open primary? Or only registered Republicans?
“The Never Trump people have nobody to blame but themselves. They decided not to play fair with Trump or Trump voters, we owe them nothing.”
I agree totally. But that wasn’t necessarily my point.
The disenfranchised voters will be even further marginalized.
It’s being done on purpose. Bush said it a long time ago “win without the base”
Take it a step further: ‘Govern without the base’.
scott is a no one who cares
open
Bummer.
Time for Trump to employ his usual 3S strategy: Slander, Slime and Sue.
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