Posted on 04/11/2016 9:32:26 PM PDT by AmericanInTokyo
CASPER – Study a map of presidential primary results and you’ll see Donald Trump dominating in the northeast. You’ll see him beating more established candidates in Arizona and Nevada and stunning pundits with dominance in the South.
But where you won’t see Trump winning big, or winning much at all, is in Wyoming, Utah and Idaho, three of the nation’s reddest states. There, the real estate mogul and famed reality star has struggled to connect with voters.
Trump is still the front-runner for the GOP nomination, but he has failed in the Northern Rockies. He lost to Sen. Ted Cruz in Idaho and Utah and has claimed only one delegate so far in Wyoming – the same number as U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who has since dropped out. Cruz, in comparison, earned nine.
Several factors have contributed to Trump’s lack of success in the Northern Rockies, political observers say.
His top opponent, Cruz, has more often discussed issues that resonate with voters here – land issues, energy and gun rights.
Cruz also has made deeper inroads in the region. He has visited Wyoming once and will return Saturday. Trump has yet to visit.
And Trump’s brash style also may be hurting him, especially with Mormon voters who make up a sizable voting bloc.
Ground game Cruz got nine of the 12 delegates at the GOP county conventions in March and is expected to do well when the state’s final 14 are chosen Saturday at the Wyoming GOP Convention in Casper.
The Cruz campaign has been on the ground in here since October. But the Texas senator’s success in the Cowboy State is the result of more than his ground game, said Ed Buchanan, former state House speaker and chairman of Cruz’s Wyoming efforts.
“The positions that Trump has held over his entire career just don’t resonate with Wyoming voters,” Buchanan said. “I don’t think he shares the values and lifestyle of Western people. I don’t think he’s really in touch with what drives the economy out West – with agriculture, with natural resources, with energy production.”
Cruz, on the other hand, is from Texas, a state that has much in common with Wyoming, Buchanan said. And Cruz has been steadfast on the Second Amendment, which is important to Wyoming.
The senator first spoke in Wyoming, frequently treated as a flyover state for presidential elections, on Aug. 20 for a GOP fundraiser. When he returns for the state GOP convention, he will be the only major GOP candidate to make the trip.
The Trump campaign is sending Sarah Palin in his stead. And Idaho Gov. Butch Otter will speak to Republicans on behalf of Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Libertarian streak Trump’s most intense support comes from white voters with lesser educations and lower incomes. In theory, that might help Trump with blue-collar voters – especially in parts of the state hammered by the energy downturn.
But Wyoming possesses more of a libertarian streak rather than Trump-style nationalism, said Matt Dallek, a professor in the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University.
“It is possible that Trump has continued to damage himself,” Dallek said. “There’s a sense that, look, we want a Republican, but it’s not necessarily Trump.”
In the Western and more conservative parts of the country, Dallek said, Trump may not be playing well to voters because of questions about his personal morality and whether he’s truly committed to limited government.
Also playing into Trump’s lack of popularity here are Mormon voters.
Nine percent of Wyomingites are members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, according to a recent Pew Research Center study.
Mormon voters have rejected Trump in Idaho and Utah because they are uncomfortable with his anti-Muslim comments, which stir memories of persecution of the LDS in American history.
Teton vote During last month’s Republican county conventions, Trump won in only one place – Teton County. And even that might be more of a fluke than a sign of deep-seated support, says one prominent Republican.
Keith Gingery, from Jackson and an ex-legislator, said many at the Teton County Convention were pushing for an undeclared delegate.
“We thought it that would give us much more of an advantage because people would woo them,” he said.
But the undeclared candidates couldn’t get a majority of the vote. After several rounds of voting, Jon Baker, a delegate supporting Trump, won.
Although Cruz has so far come out on top in Wyoming, Trump has started a conversation that has energized voters, said Campbell County Republican Party Chairman Chris Smith.
Faith appeal Some of Cruz’s support comes from his ability to appeal to the faith-based community, Smith said, while Trump’s aggressive views on immigration, nationalism and employment have jumped out to Wyoming voters in an election year where unemployment in the state is rising and the energy industry is in a slump.
Some Trump supporters say their voice hasn’t been heard in the process.
Clarence Vranish is one. The ex-state legislator said there was no vote, no debate on who they would support in Uinta County. His county went to Cruz.
The list of politicians Trump has vanquished is already lengthy and could grow to include Kasich and Cruz before primary season is over.
But Trump could still fall short of the necessary number of delegates, about 1,237, to secure the nomination. If that happens, his poor showing in the Northern Rockies will have played a role.
Why has he had to explain or walk back (retract) no less than about 12 gaffes now in the last six months??
Apparently, being a tax and spend democrat is a good thing now, as long as it is Trump doing it.
So are you trying to insure that no Trump supporters will back Cruz in the unlikely event that the GOPe is able to steal the nom from Trump ? If so , you’re doing a great job ...keep poking that bear, genius ...
“Ya, it’s called the gopE.”
Yes. See post 3!
>Why has he had to explain or walk back (retract) no less than about 12 gaffes now in the last six months??
He’s not a professional politician.
Why did Cruz lie about not he didn’t have health insurance due to Obamacare in New Hampshire? Because it was a political stunt.
I see. Well bless your heart, then—where I come from.
Wyoming is neo-con Cheney territory ..no way they will let Trump win there ...another rig job ...are we ready for Hellary ?
You might just get your way, but rest assured a DIM , any Dim will win the election if they steal it from Trump...enjoy
Exactly. Eighty posts in and not one Trump supporter has admitted that Donnie’s bone-headed stance on Federal lands may be to blame for his poor showing in the Mountain States.
Trump acting like a Manhattan elitist and refusing to trust locals and states to do the right thing doesn’t play well in the conservative West.
Not too hard to figure out.
>Wyoming is neo-con Cheney territory ..no way they will let Trump win there ...another rig job ...are we ready for Hellary ?
Not so. Trump’s message doesn’t resonate with people in the west and they largely vote on identity which Cruz fakes in spades. It’s just not a good area for Trump’s message and tactics. I’d hope he’ll win something, but it will probably be another #NEVERTURMP screw job like Colorado.
>> The rules were in effect before the election
Not arguing that nor the ‘whining’ as you describe it.
It’s simply difficult to appreciate fellow FReepers parading misrepresentation as a viable path towards victory.
It isn’t “stealing” it if he loses under the rules in effect at the time of the election.
You don’t seem to have a lot of confidence in Trump’s ability to win this election if you keep talking about how Cruz is trying to steal it.
Actually it might be more correct to resurrect sore loserman for Trump, I doubt he would go into a business deal without knowing absolutely everything, but he didn’t apply the same standard to the delegate situation.
Are you talking about Lying Ted or Lying Don?
Like I said , are we ready for Hellary ? ...no way Cruz can win the general , nor can any other puppet they put up ...the GOPe just gave Colorado to the DIMs for the general ... the damage has been done
The problem with Trump going 3rd party now is 3rd party ballots are NOT on all states!!! Libritarian is in 48 states but I think they have the most representation in the election process!!! That party hates Trump!!! The ONLY way for us to blow this election sky high is 3rd party but I believe it is to late for that!!! Trump should have jumped along time ago!!!
Good post.
“All politics is local” ~ Tip O’Neill
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/WY-R
Wyoming, like Colorado, had their local caucus meetings awhile ago. It looks like they may have a similar way of electing delegates based on a raise-your-hand vote or whatever so no actual vote. And hence the delegates are “soft” delegates meaning they can change their choice later on.
But - the people of Wyoming did have the chance to elect delegates. Cruz won 9 delegates, and Trump got one delegate. I imagine that, like Colorado, most all of the delegates sent to the national convention will be Cruz supporters based on the caucus results.
Great, Cruz is big in red states with hardly any electoral college delegates and arcane opaque delegate selection processes. That really bodes well for his chances in the general election.
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