Posted on 04/22/2016 7:20:29 AM PDT by mac_truck
April 26:
Pennsylvania: Trump leads in every poll and is on pace to win the 17 pledged delegates that will go to statewide winner. The 54 unbound delegates will be selected in the primary and will be free to vote for whomever they want at the national convention. Even if they declare a candidate preference before the convention, they will not be formally bound to it in any way. That said, a large number of them are already committing publicly to supporting whichever candidate wins their congressional district – or at least to weighing the district result heavily in their decision. Trump may have trouble in a few districts around Philadelphia, but his wide poll lead suggests he’s on course to run up wide margins across most of the state. Practically speaking, it may be very hard for an unbound delegate who wins his or her slot by vowing to honor the results in his or her district to wiggle out of that commitment in the face of a Trump landslide. Target: 17 pledged delegates plus 36 unbound
Maryland (38 delegates): Trump leads state by a wide margin and should easily win the 14 delegates that come with a statewide victory. The other 24 are given out by congressional district – three to the winner of each of the state’s eight districts. Target: 32 delegates
Delaware (16): It’s a winner-take-all state and Trump leads big. Target: 16
Connecticut (28): If Trump can break 50 percent statewide, he should sweep state. Currently, Trump is running at 48 percent statewide. Target: 28
Rhode Island (19): Demographically, state is a perfect fit for Trump and should produce one of his largest margins. The bad-news: Its system for delegate allocation is highly proportional, limiting his potential gains. Target: 10
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.com ...
Rhode Island delivers the exact same number of delegates (19) as DC, which Rubio won. I wonder how they come up with these stupid formulas! Not only does Rhode Island have one more electoral vote, but in the last 55 years, the GOP has won there exactly twice (1972 and 1984) versus never for DC.
Assuming Trump wins the GOP nomination (which seems likely right now) two things are going to change very quickly after he secures it:
1) The media (with the exception of Trump’s diehard cheerleaders on Faux News) will no longer give him a free ride and it will turn aggressively against him.
2) Trump will move sharply to the Left, and back away from many of his newly acquired conservative positions he took during the GOP primaries.
It is going to be a whole new ballgame after DT wins the GOP nomination. And I don’t think most conservatives will be happy with our choices this November.
Ping.
Ted is done. The only people who don’t understand this are the Cruzlims here and the Ted himself.
The Rubio delegates are an interesting side issue, especially if they become unbound by the “rules”.
My guess is if Trump comes up short he’ll grab some of these delegates to put him over the top.
It’s a nail-biter.
...and i will vote for Jesus, only.
I agree about the importance of the Central Valley for Trump and according to some folks the key to winning that area runs right through Fresno.
The Trump train will be making a stop there...count on it!
Yep. While the Trump path may be narrow in spots, the Cruz path went over the cliff on Tuesday night and no longer exists.
It could go either way. Indiana and California will both play a big role. I think Trump will eke out a lead in IN, but he may not be able to cross the finish line in CA. Only time will tell.
If he keeps shifting left, he will probably lose much needed support of conservatives and fail to reach 1237. He ought to be reaching out to conservatives now rather than alienating them. Save the conciliatory comments to the Democrats for the general. He is being more friendly to the left than the right.
The following is a must see video and article for every American to see how all U.S. politicians have betrayed the USA and Americans for decades:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/04/17/trump_im_so_happy_china_is_upset_with_me.html
Trump:
“
I said, in the history of the world, this is the greatest theft ever perpetrated by anyone or any country, what China has done to us.
It is the greatest single theft. They have taken our jobs, they have taken our money, I mean I see the empty buildings all over Staten Island... I see them all over... Really really sad. That's not going to happen anymore with me...
Delegate Allocation
For jurisdictions with Constitutionally Elected Members of Congress:
10 At-Large delegates
3 District delegates for each U.S. Representative
3 delegates for the national committeeman, the national committee woman, and the chairman of each state.
Bonus Delegates
President: States casting a majority of their 2012 Electoral Votes for the Republican Candidate receive 4.5 + 0.60 × the jurisdiction’s total 2012 Electoral Vote in bonus delegates.
1 delegate for each of these Republican U.S. Senator
Republican Governor
Republican U.S. House members
Each Republican state legislative Chamber
States electing a Republican majority to all chambers of the state legislature
“Ted is done.”
Same thing the Trump supporters have been saying since before Iowa.
Hasn’t helped your candidate one bit.
Nor have the insults.
It is off message. It has been a continuous distraction from a positive message of Trump being the best candidate for the job of making America great again. Instead, the message has constantly been “Cruz bad. Trump not Cruz.” So what?
If Trump and his supporters had stayed on message, he would already have won the nomination. Instead, fear of losing to Cruz has driven the campaign, when Cruz should have been an ally.
Cruz should have always been the number one pick for a Trump VP. Their positions are very closely aligned. He still should be. He has the second most support among likely Republican voters, an incredible ground game, and great debating skills. There is also not much overlap between Trump voters and Cruz voters. In other words, Trump needs Cruz supporters to have any chance in the general. (Of course the reverse is true.)
Instead, he is the ENEMY for daring to run against Trump.
Predictions of Cruz’s early demise have been greatly exaggerated.
Sorry folks, that ain't gonna happen. For months, Trump supporters have claimed that they could win the general election without Cruz supporters, without Rubio supporters, without donors and the dreaded "GOPe". Well, if Trump gets the nomination, the rest of us can sit back and watch to see if they are right.
Delusional. Absolutely delusional. This thing is over and Ted and his supporters don’t see it. Ted’s getting thrown under the bus in about 1 week. GOP is slowly making peace with Trump. You and the rest of the Cruz crew will be moving onto the bargaining stage shortly.
There was a story though that for once Trump had out-hustled Cruz in the PA delegate fight and already had a lot of those 50 wrapped up.
It is a formula which seriously undervalues the performance of the state in delivering electoral votes in November.
Trump, despite all his whining, is playing the system well by steamrolling through the northeast states which will deliver zero electoral votes to the GOP in the fall, with the possible exceptions of Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Maine if it is a nationwide blow-out.
I think you’ll be very, very surprised. Trump knows that immigration and jobs are the focus. He has known this for more than a year.
He has stated, on several occasions, that he came into the campaign on the basis of economic recovery and jobs, but soon saw how key immigration was to both.
One thing people don’t understand is the government budget cycle. The longer this stupid primary goes on, the harder it is to have a program in place after winning. Reagan started in Feb. 1980 (!!) with his tax and budget teams for more than one year out.
What can be the case is that if Trump isn’t ready to hit the ground running, he will lose 25% of his presidency to the budget cycle and won’t have input til 2018. I have written Sen. Sessions about this. He called me, and we had a long talk, and his words were, “They need to talk to you,” meaning the Trump team. This was right before WI. So we’ll see.
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