Trump After New York: the Presumptive Nominee

Washington Times ^ | 4/22/2016 | Newt Gingrich

[GilGil]

The scale of Donald Trump’s victory in New York turned him from frontrunner into presumptive Republican nominee.

Trump is correct in asserting that a manipulated nomination defying the popular vote would be anathema to the Republican base. It would make Cleveland and the fall campaign chaotic and unmanageable.

Second, Trump is probably going to win the nomination on the first ballot.

Take a clear-eyed look at the numbers. After New York, Trump has 845 delegates. Cruz has 559, and Kasich has 147.

So Trump is 139 delegates ahead of the other two combined.

He is almost 300 delegates ahead of Cruz, his closest rival.

Every analysis of the next few weeks indicates Trump’s margin will widen and he will move steadily closer to 1237. Already, he is only 392 short before any undecided delegates, Rubio delegates, and the like are counted.

These are the numbers of a presumptive nominee, not a front runner. If this were any candidate but Donald Trump, the media would be saying his rivals’ efforts were hopeless and the establishment would be pressuring them to exit the race.

It is time for the GOP establishment to work with this new reality rather than wage war against it.

[GilGil]

Only 392 to go!

[mmichaels1970]

It would make Cleveland and the fall campaign chaotic and unmanageable.

Heh...sounds like Cleveland to me!

[orchestra]

Yeah, somebody tell Katie Packer.

[dynoman]

Ted cruz rally:

Packed house here for #TedCruz rally in #Scranton. All seats filled, standing room only. #CruzInScranton pic.twitter.com/noEVj6gy4Q— Joe Evans (@JoeEvansBlogs) April 22, 2016

---

Trump rally;

.@realDonaldTrump had a phenomenal day @IndyStateFair grounds w #TrumpTrain🚂💨🇺🇸
before going to Maryland. #Trump2016 pic.twitter.com/IXWB6kIOno— Dan Scavino(@DanScavino) April 21, 2016

#TrumpTrain🚂💨🇺🇸🇺🇸Maryland welcomed #Trump2016 for 15+ miles on every corner- en route to venue. TY! We saw you all🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/ENQJrXtYdQ— Dan Scavino(@DanScavino) April 21, 2016

[MaxistheBest]

I read yesterday that between his own fundraising and Pro-Cruz super Pacs, Camp Cruz has spent $122 million and that’s not counting Katie’s pac spending.

[brent13a]

Trump had 800,000 votes in NY, that was 800,000 people turned out to vote for him.

Hillary had 1,000,000+ votes and Bernie had 700,000+ votes in their NY primary.

The democrats had 1,000,000 more voters turn out than the Republicans.

That isn’t the only state to show such a voter turnout disparity in parties.

Who cares if the Donald won the NY primary. HE loses the popular vote come election time.

[GilGil]

Who cares if the Donald won the NY primary. HE loses the popular vote come election time.
__________________________

If you are that sure of this bet take all your savings and bet it against Trump. This is a no brainer and you will make a bundle but you won’t because you are simply not that sure.

[orchestra]

Club for Growth is also revving up the engines for Indiana. Trump wins there-it’s over.

[lucky american]

Bingo!

[brent13a]

Looking at voter turnout in liberal states I’m convinced that there is no republican candidate who can win this election via popular vote. The republican party has destroyed itself already and there is no one right now who can win against the establishment because the failure of the GOPe has only helped the democrat establishment.

Vote whoever you want, Trump will probably be the nominee. I’ll vote Trump when it’s time to cast my ballot. But don’t be surprised when he loses the general election because the democrat voter turnout ends up being 2:1 or 3:1.

[PA Engineer]

New York was a “very” closed primary. Almost 4 million were not able to vote. No Democrats were allowed to crossover and registration had to have been changed by 9/15.

[orchestra]

A...I think you forgot about all of the Independents who will be able to vote in the general.There’s 3 million of them.

[GilGil]

Vote whoever you want, Trump will probably be the nominee. I’ll vote Trump when it’s time to cast my ballot. But don’t be surprised when he loses the general election because the democrat voter turnout ends up being 2:1 or 3:1.
___________________________

I am not foolish like most. I would like to see Trump win; however, I also make my plans to protect myself. For me to hope that my life will immediately change because of who is in office is ridiculous.

If we get Hillary so be it. That seems to be the wish of a lot of people on this forum. I do not think she will win but if she does I can profit from that too. It just won’t be good for the country.

[brent13a]

Good points. I really hope the independents come out to vote R in droves.

But I don’t see any republican candidate having the right ground game to entice the maybe’s over to the R side.

The fact that the Donald has surrounded himself with GOPe establishment people on his campaign is enough to make me feel like this is 2008 all over again.

[napscoordinator]

The independents are key! They did not vote.

[orchestra]

Just wait for the July surprise.

[brent13a]

I see those who continually only tout Trump’s rally numbers and primary wins as proof that he’s on track to sweep the countryside as “those on this forum who want Hillary to win”. But looking at the whole picture, taking in all the numbers, and not just listening to sycophants has informed me that there is a high probability of us losing. Call me a pragmatist, call me a cynic but this election cycle has turned sucky and I’m not hyped about anyone on the right.

[mmichaels1970]

Who cares if the Donald won the NY primary. HE loses the popular vote come election time.

That sure is a lot of votes to try to overcome and I'd highly doubt Trump could do it. But keep in mind that this was a very "closed" primary. You had to register Republican over 3 months ago to be allowed to vote. I believe ZERO independent voters were allowed to vote in either primary. I believe that is why Sanders is claiming 3 million disenfranchised voters.

I would not dispute if we compared full party registrations in New York, the Dems have a huge advantage. But nobody got to see or count how independents would break in the state, nor cross-over from either party to the other.

I have absolutely no problem with closed primaries, by the way. However if you're going to use raw vote totals by party to determine who will win a state, a better measure would be to do that in states with open primaries.

[M. Thatcher]

Trump had 800,000 votes in NY, that was 800,000 people turned out to vote for him. Hillary had 1,000,000+ votes and Bernie had 700,000+ votes in their NY primary. The democrats had 1,000,000 more voters turn out than the Republicans. That isn’t the only state to show such a voter turnout disparity in parties. Who cares if the Donald won the NY primary. HE loses the popular vote come election time.

Look, genius. I KNOW you have read this information before, but like all Cruzholes, you can't absorb it.

New York is a closed primary. Trump gets tons of Independent and Democrat crossover voters – especially blue collar Democrats, of which New York has MILLIONS. (Think cops, firefighters, EMTs, construction workers, the trades. They are almost universally Trumpsters.) But those voters were dismayed to discover they couldn't vote for Trump in the New York primary – they had to have changed party registration by October 9, 2015. This is the most onerous state rule for party registration change in the U.S.

During the general election, no such rules apply, and virtually the entire New York working class will be voting Trump – PLUS the vast majority of long-registered Republicans, of which Trump garnered 60+ percent in the primary, over Cruz's pathetic third-place, zero-delegate showing.

Cruzholes have constantly sneered that Trump is a closet Democrat and can't get Republican votes. Well he has blown out the Republican vote (ACTUAL VOTERS) in most states, including New York. Including the Bible Belt.

Trump is getting voters across EVERY demographic, unlike the reptilian charlatan Cruz.

Trump will blow Hillary out in New York. Your boy Kray-Kray Cruz is done, kaput, finis.

[SamAdams76]

New York is a closed primary. Trump gets tons of Independent and Democrat crossover voters – especially blue collar Democrats, of which New York has MILLIONS. (Think cops, firefighters, EMTs, construction workers, the trades. They are almost universally Trumpsters.) But those voters were dismayed to discover they couldn't vote for Trump in the New York primary – they had to have changed party registration by October 9, 2015. This is the most onerous state rule for party registration change in the U.S.

Exactly right. I think Trump would have gotten 70% of the overall vote if Independents and Democrats were allowed to vote for him in Tuesday's primary.

I was almost a victim of this myself. I moved down to Connecticut a year ago and did not select a party affiliation when I registered to vote. I figured that I'd be able to pull a Republican ballot at primary time, like I was able to do in Massachusetts.

Somebody here on Free Republic tipped me off to that and I just made the CT deadline (yesterday) to change my voter registration to Republican so that I can vote in Tuesday's CT primary.

So rack up another CT vote for Trump this coming Tuesday.