Posted on 04/27/2016 8:37:22 AM PDT by Lazamataz
Tuesday night went about as well as possible for Donald Trump.
Two weeks ago, we issued a series of delegate projections that included something called a “path-to-1,237” projection, a set of targets that would allow Trump to clinch a delegate majority without having to rely on uncommitted delegates. With Trump’s terrific results in New York last week and even better ones in the five states that voted on Tuesday, Trump is running a little ahead of that path.
Based on provisional results,1 it looks as though Trump will sweep every pledged delegate in Maryland (as a result of winning every congressional district), Connecticut (as a result of winning every congressional district and getting more than 50 percent of the vote statewide), Pennsylvania (where statewide delegates are awarded winner-take-all) and Delaware (ditto), along with 11 of 19 delegates in Rhode Island (which is highly proportional). Combined with the New York results,2 that gives Trump 200 delegates since we issued the path-to-1,237 projections, five delegates ahead of his original targets.
While the Northeast appeared to be a strong region for Trump, the polls two weeks ago suggested it was a tossup whether he’d get to 50 percent of the vote in Connecticut; instead he won it easily with 58 percent of the vote. It looked as though he’d probably lose a couple of congressional districts in the Washington suburbs in Maryland even if he won the state; instead, he swept all eight districts.
(snip)
What it means for Indiana, which votes next week and awards its delegates winner-take-all (some statewide and some by congressional district), and which the path-to-1,237 projections had Trump winning. As much good work as Trump has done over the past two weeks, a loss in Indiana would mostly undo it.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
He wins without IN. He should get it on WV and CA alone.
He really doesn’t need IN, NE, MT, SD, OR, WA or NM.
We have both been at that number for a long time now.
“Trump surged to 9.9 million votes ... That’s already more than 100,000 more than Romney earned in the entire 2012 primary season [or] John McCain earned in 2008. ... [H]e’s positioned to easily pass the modern record-holder George W. Bush — who collected 10.8 million votes in 2000. ... [A]nti-Trump forces [are] attempting to thwart the candidate who is likely to win more Republican primary votes than any GOP contender in at least the last 36 years, and maybe ever.” http://politi.co/1XVYN9b
Read more: http://www.politico.com/playbook#ixzz472j3e4IT
Note to Nate: Reality sucks for you but deal with it. Trump will be the nominee and if you read Sundance over at Conservative Treehouse you will understand that Trump can lose Indiana and still get there.
Now have a nice day Nate...
Freegards
LEX
It’s Trump’s nomination to lose regardless of Indiana. Absent some industrial-grade shenanigans on the part of the GOP establishment at the convention I don’t see how Trump isn’t the nominee.
Why? He continues to point out that Trump has a path to the nomination. Ted the loser doesn’t
Who in the hell is this idiot and why would anyone care what he has to says?
Oh sure and if you on the first round vote against the guy who got well over half the votes in your district you will be considered so brave
Watch and see what happens.
Isn’t Nate Silver usually wrong?
Hopefully we are smart enough to see through the reality show that is the Trump phenomena, but who knows he has suckered a lot of people. They can’t all be brain dead celebrity cultist.
If we can’t do the right thing then I guess we have plenty of time to get comfortable with a democrat governor, Madame President, democrat senate and house and a USSC lost forever. Hey we don’t need no stinking guns and who says unborn children have a right to live. After all PPH does such great work says Mr. Trump.
Trump is a deductive thinker - he begins with the goal and works back from there - no wasted motion - only what contributes to the result.— Bill Mitchell (REAL) (@mitchellvii) March 21, 2016
Guys like Cruz are inductive thinkers. They are so obsessed with the ideological front end, the actual result is an afterthought.— Bill Mitchell (REAL) (@mitchellvii) March 21, 2016
Let not your heart be troubled.
Jedi.
The great Nate don’t sound so great any more. He used to know everything.
For Hillary and her party yes. It gives them an uninterrupted path to the White House. For the Nation, its people and freedom not so much.
My comment was made regarding his “live” election night blogs,not his delegate tracker.
Your post was unclear.
PA-district delegate candidates weren’t listed on the ballot with the name of the candidate they would support. While technically unbound, some indicated through other channels who they were inclined to support.
Trump did very well in winning district delegates. I’ve heard 40. I presume the media will start listing these as “soft” versus “hard” count delegates. Add to these a percentage of the delegates from the remaining proportional representation state and the delegates from New Jersey. At least another hundred.
Give WV to Trump, Nebraska and South Dakota to Cruz. We’re talking 1150 or so for Trump. Within a 100 of a first ballot victory. If Trump wins California, that’s it. Trump can lose Indiana and still win a first ballot victory. On the other hand, there is no realistic way for Cruz to stop Trump if Cruz loses Indiana. Even winning Indiana probably only prolongs the agony.
Yes, but he's right whenever he agrees with me.
So many articles about when and how Trump gets to 1237. They are nothing more than the writers writing to be writing. They have no new ideas just idle speculation that they hope people will debate over and over until the next deadline has to be met with yet more idle speculation.
Blah, blah, blah.
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