The Trump over-the-top Delegate Countdown Thread

CNN and FR | My 9, 2016 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

Right now Trump is listed as having 1080 delegates.

This is on CNN's page, which I have found, despite CNN's other difficulties, to have about the most accurate election documentation.

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/candidates/donald-trump

1014 bound and 66 unbound delegates who have definitely announced for him.

That means:

Donlad Trump has 157 delegates to go to get to the 1,237 as of May 9, 2016.

Let's use this thread to keep trakc of Donald Trump's attaining the 1,237 now that he is the only candidayte left in the running and already the presumptive nominee.

[GOPJ]

Trump’s got to pull in every vote... None of us trust the Establishment.

[Guenevere]

Thank-you Jeff

[wita]

Thanks for the ping Jeff. So far none of the “never Trump” folks. We can only hope the self righteous, self serving come to their senses before Hillary or Bernie pull out a win.

[betty boop]

Dear Jeff, thank you so very much for compiling/monitoring the critical pledged delegate stats in the run-up to the Convention. This is a wonderful resource, and I’ll be visiting often.

That The Donald stands alone at this early point in the primary cycle -- especially as compared with the Hitlery/Bernie slugfest on the other side -- is really remarkable. Think of it: He had to eclipse sixteen other eminently qualified candidates to get to this point. And yet the #NeverTrump caucus seems unappeasable, including Speaker Ryan. Sigh.

WHY???

Rather than impute motives to such folks (none of whom I personally know, though many erstwhile have been highly respected political operators/commentators in my book), I thought it might be better to talk about my own shock, early on, about the Trump phenomenon. The #NeverTrump contingent would doubtless agree with me about the following:

Donald Trump is rude, crude, and socially unacceptable. He is ignorant of the sublime doctrines of (Neo?)Conservatism in all its rigorous particulars.

But I draw the line there: I wouldn’t call him a megalomaniac; I’d just call him an Alpha Male, Par Excellence.

Though he has no experience in public office of any kind, he is a man of tremendous accomplishment. He builds beautiful buildings. (Lots of people don’t bother to build beautiful buildings these days, just economical, serviceable, efficient ones.)

Plus there was the heart-warming story about how The Donald, evidently in the spirit of public service, donated the restoration of the skating rink in downtown Manhattan to the City, after years and years of city bureaucratic failure to fix the rink for public use. He did a video interview about this, and as he got talking, it was as if he had completely forgotten himself, he was so intent on telling you the story about how bureaucrats fail to accomplish much that is tangible to the public good.

He was totally guileless. He wondered about the penchant of the City to lay copper tubing as the base of the ice rink, when every night thieves would rush in and steal the copper. Then the City would lay fresh new copper tubing the next day to replace the stolen ones. Repeat cycle, ad infinitum. Think about the cost to NYC taxpayers for this debacle of bureaucratic incompetence.

So, with some reluctance, the City lets The Donald step in to fix things, and the first thing he did was fire the city-appointed contractor of the ice rink. Then he called a Canadian friend, who happens to be the owner of a major hockey franchise up there in the Great White North, and asked him, “who’s the best ice-guy you know?” So The Donald consults a professional ice-builder for the NHL, and starts laying rubber tubing instead of copper -- for the NFL does not build their ice rinks with copper tubing, but with state-of-the-art rubber. Why should NYC do otherwise? Problem solved. Rink opens to the public, on time and “under-budget.” The Donald picked up the tab for everything.

I just chalk this up to the difference between bureaucratic ideology (of whatever stripe) and real-life, hands-on experience with problem solving. I strongly suspect The Donald is very, very good with that sort of thing.

Which probably accounts for how he blew away sixteen other GOP candidates for POTUS. Personally, I would NOT ever sell The Donald short.

Still, early on, say back in late 2015, when I was boiling down my choice among Trump, Carson, Cruz, or Rubio, Trump did not appear to be terribly edifying, but I still couldn’t ignore him.

Mulling that over, in the holy spirit, the thought occurred that, absent God’s Will, there is no way The Donald could possibly be in the position he is now in. Which leads to the next question: Does God intend Donald Trump as a blessing, or a curse?

The #NeverTrump crowd clearly says The Donald is a curse who will take down all the “down-ticket” GOP candidates. (That’s what I just love about these characters: They are so certain they know exactly what is going to happen IN THE FUTURE.)

Personally, I think our Lord God is testing the discernment of his beloved children in this matter. The endgame now is We the People reasserting the rock-bottom constitutional principle of popular sovereignty in this nation. This IS the revolution, my friends.

And I daresay Donald Trump is the champion of this revolution, even though you may not like his social skills. He has already worked a miracle of sorts: The absolute delegitimation of “politically correct” speech. He says what he means and means what he says. Politically correct speech, in comparison, is pointless and risible. Drive a silver stake into its heart!!!

Thanks ever do much, dear Jeff, for the work you do, and for pinging me!

[Jeff Head]

Betty, as you know I was for Senator Ted Cruz. but after the New York primary, when it was clear that the forces angered by the establishment Republicans (and Democrats for that matter) were much more coalescing around Trump, I wrote him and encouraged him, for the good of the country to suspend his campaign, bury the war hatchet, and make peace with Trump and unit the party.

Ultimately he did, but not after a lot more anger and political blood were on the floor. Too much for him to make amends.

As it is, IMHO, this election is going to pit the establishment wings of both parties against the American people.

This election is making clear who is on which side.

The establishment republicans, who run towards conservative Americans to get their vote, but then ignore their promises and commitments once elected, are drunk on power. They view their “position” and power more important than the welfare of their constituents or the country.

They must go down.

The establishment Democrats are 3wanton liars, anti-American, anti-free enterprise, and anti-independence. They want all people and things depending on them and their power. They promise the world to the black Americans, Latinos, and all sorts of “interest groups,” whose overall position in society never really benefits from their policies...in fact, the get worse.

They must go down.

Donald Trump is the one candidate who can bring American together to fight these institutionalized entities which continue to play patty cake together and gut our nation.

I have talke to numerous African American friend, Latinos, long-time democrats, indepenedents, and those who have been relatively un-attentive to politics who are climbing aboard Trump’s trai

As it is, Trump’s stated policy statements on his web page are more conservative than most all of the GOPe candidates, and certainly far better than anything the DNC will do.

If he simply enacts the better part of what he has proposed, this nation will experience a dramatic turnaround similar to the one Ronald Reagan brought about.

I hope and pray, to God in Heaven, that the American people will rise up and deliver a staggering, dramatic blow to the establishment Politian’s and their elite donor class that will reverberate for a generation or two...or more.

As Andrew Jackson’s campaign slogan intoned...”Route the Vipers out!”

[betty boop]

Jeepers, Jeff -- I so agree with your analysis!!!

The problem is, I think Ted Cruz is still working behind the scenes to advance his candidacy. Not good, IMHO.

I think Donald Trump should put out the names of people he'd like to appoint to his cabinet, if elected, sometime around the July convention. I think it would be just the ticket for him to nominate Ted Cruz to the Scalia vacancy on the Supreme Court. Maybe then Ted Cruz would stop trying so hard to make something happen which I believe is not going to happen -- his own candidacy for president -- and be satisfied with the title of Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States. I think he is well suited to that position. He'd probably work his way into the Chief Justice slot in due course. He is an amazingly talented man, but just doesn't "play nice" with people as a rule.

Just a thought.

Thanks so much for writing, dear Jeff!

[Jeff Head]

Ted is just being ridiculous, and sadly, apparently cannot let it go.

His bus left the station, not to return this campaign, IMHO after the New York primary.

It’s last tail light was seen leaving town after Indiana.

Making a statement like he did about NE when he has already suspended is just foolish IMHO. What are we to believe? If he loses in NE (which he surely will) is he going to go on TV and again suspend a now already suspended campaign?

He should be using his skills to unite the party for the November election, both Presidential and down line. Not doing that is not just hurting the country...it is hurting his own career whether he believes it r not.

No at this date...at least to me...it is clear that this is not the Political Establishments of both parties and the elite donor class of people...along with the people whom they have completely bought up with all of their free stuff...against the American people in general.

I believe (and hope, and pray, and will work) that it is the American people who will win out...and hopefully in a very dramatic fashion.

[Jeff Head]

Tonight Trump won large majority victories in both Nebraska and WV. As was expected.

Nebraska was winner take all so he will get all 36 of those. I believe when all the counting is done in all of the counties/districts that he will also win all 34 West Virginia delegates.

CNN will have to catch up on that.

So add 70 to the 1080 he had and he is now at 1150. That means:

Donald Trump has 87 delegates to go to get to the 1,237 as of May 10, 2016

[Grampa Dave]

Hey ole Klamath Lake/Falls/River buddy, thanks for all of your hard work re the delegates and what is really happening.

Tonight Trump won large majority victories in both Nebraska and WV. As was expected.

Nebraska was winner take all so he will get all 36 of those. I believe when all the counting is done in all of the counties/districts that he will also win all 34 West Virginia delegates.

CNN will have to catch up on that.

So add 70 to the 1080 he had and he is now at 1150. That means:

Donald Trump has 87 delegates to go to get to the 1,237 as of May 10, 2016

[Irish Eyes]

So add 70 to the 1080 he had and he is now at 1150. That means:

Donald Trump has 87 delegates to go to get to the 1,237 as of May 10, 2016

That is very good news. Thanks.

[Jeff Head]

Thank you y Friend!

I am going to begin adding the popular vote totals to this tracking as well.

Donald Trump has the very real possibility of setting a new record for the most votes ever obtained by any GOP Presidential candidate in a Primary Election for the Presidency.

That record is currently at just over 12 million votes for George W. Bush in 2000.

Right now, Donald is in second place. Before last night he had 10.7 million, he added 250,000 (approximately) last night which now places him at 10.95 million.

With the upcoming elections in Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, California, Montana and New Mexico, it is almost assured that he will beat the record...perhaps by as many as a million votes depending on how big his win is in California.

This is being largely ignored...but it speaks to how his message is resonating and driving turnout.

[Jeff Head]

CNN now showing 1147...they still are waiting for final confirmation I suppose on 3 of WV’s delegates. But they will come.

Heck, Trump won WV with 76% of the vote.

I predict he is going to get all of Oregon and Washington delegates over the next two weeks too.

This means going into June he will have 1222 delegates, only 15 short of the needed 1237.

On June 7, he will certainly end up with as high as 1,450 delegates, maybe even 1,500 if he has as clean a sweep as he had last night.

[Jeff Head]

CNN now showing 1147...they still are waiting for final confirmation I suppose on 3 of WV’s delegates. But they will come.

Heck, Trump won WV with 76% of the vote.

I predict he is going to get all of Oregon and Washington delegates over the next two weeks too.

This means going into June he will have 1222 delegates, only 15 short of the needed 1237.

On June 7, he will certainly end up with as high as 1,450 delegates, maybe even 1,500 if he has as clean a sweep as he had last night.

[Jeff Head]

Here's an interesting graphic for you all.

It shows the 1st and 2nd place GOP Primary finishers in the last 10 residential Elections...40 years.

It is clear that this will be the largest turnout since 2000. In that year, Bush set the record for GOP Primary votes for any GOP Primary presidential candidate at just over 12 million. McCain got the most 2nd place votes in history to that point with just over 6 million.

In this campaign, Donald Trump is right near 11 million with seven more contests to go, including California. He is certain to break George W. Bush's record. In addition, Ted Cruz has alrady broken John McCain's 2nd place record with over 7 million votes. Her'es a commonality between 2000 and 2016.

In 2000 we were coming of 8 years of Clinton and the people were engergized.

This year we are coming off of 8 years of Obama and people are all the more energized.

This will easily be the largest GOP turnout in history. Probably 21 million or more. In 2000, we managed 18 million in the primaries.

[DollyCali]

BTTT

[Jeff Head]

Here's the latest update after Oregon and what CNN is saying an my own projections.

Currently CNN is showing Donald Trump with 1175 total delegates. But the counting in Oregon is not complete so they show him with 18, and Cruz and Kasich both with 3.

I believe Trump will end up with 20 delegates, so I am going to go ahead and call it that way, meaning Trump will have 1177 delegates.

So as of March 18,2016,:

Donald Trump has 1177 delegates. He needs 60 more delegates to clinch the nomination at 1,237.

In terms of popular vote overall, Trummp is taking Oregon with 67% of the vote. With 80% in, he now has 214,400 votes.

If that holds, it means he will end up with approximately 268,000 votes. Up to this point Donald had 10,925,000 votes total. If we add the 268,000 to that, we get 11,1930,000.

The record for the most votes for any GOP Presidential candidate in a GOP Presidential Primary is 12,035,000 for George W. Bush in 2000.

In the upcoming primaries, which include California, Donald Trump now needs another 842,000 votes to set the all time GOP record

[Jeff Head]

Here's the latest update after Oregon and what CNN is saying an my own projections.

Currently CNN is showing Donald Trump with 1175 total delegates. But the counting in Oregon is not complete so they show him with 18, and Cruz and Kasich both with 3.

I believe Trump will end up with 20 delegates, so I am going to go ahead and call it that way, meaning Trump will have 1177 delegates.

So as of March 18,2016,:

Donald Trump has 1177 delegates. He needs 60 more delegates to clinch the nomination at 1,237

In terms of popular vote overall, Trummp is taking Oregon with 67% of the vote. With 80% in, he now has 214,400 votes.

If that holds, it means he will end up with approximately 268,000 votes. Up to this point Donald had 10,925,000 votes total. If we add the 268,000 to that, we get 11,1930,000.

The record for the most votes for any GOP Presidential candidate in a GOP Presidential Primary is 12,035,000 for George W. Bush in 2000.

In the upcoming primaries, which include California, Donald Trump now needs another 842,000 votes to set the all time GOP record.

IMHO, he is going to break that record by as much as a million or more votes...and the amazing thing is that he is going to do it in a field that started with 17 candidates, and held numerous candidates until later in the primaries. Simply amazing turnout.

[SamAdams76]

Amazing turnout and we will see same in November

[Jeff Head]

I agree.

And I believe Trump is going to make some significant inroads into the Black and Latino vote. Probably get at least twice the Black vote that Romney got, and 10-15% more of the Latino vote.

Then there will be a LOT of rust belt and other Dems who cross over, as well as a LOT of independents.

We could be looking at a landslide...and I hope we are.

[Guenevere]

Thanks for the encouragement Jeff!!!!

We the People realize this is our last best opportunity to turn our nation around, Lord willing, and are passionate in getting out the vote!