Posted on 05/25/2016 3:54:23 PM PDT by MaxistheBest
The conventional wisdom is that Hillary Clinton will crush Donald Trump in the November election. As I detailed previously, a generic Democratic candidate begins the general election with a huge Electoral College advantage based on how states have voted in the last six presidential elections. The count in September 2015 stood at 257 electoral votes for the Democrat and 206 electoral votes for the Republican, with five battleground states worth 75 electoral votes.
Where is the race today as we near the end of the primary process? Based on current polling and primary results, Clinton likely would win the presidency with 284 electoral votes to Trump’s 248 electoral votes, with only Nevada as too tough to call. Clinton’s win would be the closest win for a Democrat since Woodrow Wilson’s 23-vote victory exactly 100 years ago in 1916.
------------------------------------------
Where Clinton Is Most Vulnerable Based on her primary vote totals, Clinton is vulnerable in the lean-Democrat state of New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) and the solid Democrat state of Pennsylvania (20). She also underwhelms in the lean-Republican states of Missouri (10) and North Carolina (13) and the battleground state of Ohio (18). She lost ground from 2008 to 2016 in all of those states. On a positive note, Clinton gained ground in the Democrat state of Michigan (16) and the battleground states of Florida (29), Virginia (13), and Colorado (9).
For Trump to win, he most certainly needs to do three things: firm up the lean-Republican states of Missouri and North Carolina; take the battleground states of Florida and Ohio; and pull the upset in Pennsylvania, which a Republican hasn’t won since 1988.
(Excerpt) Read more at thefederalist.com ...
She’s dead, Jim.
I’m thinking it will be an early night when Trump wins NY
The conventional wisdom is that Hillary Clinton will crush Donald Trump in the November election.””
You mean the Propaganda spewed by the Media in an effort to sway voters???? That is not Wisdom!
Oh man. They couldn’t build a college campus safe space big enough to contain all the butthurt if that happened!
In fact, the only one who has the construction wherewithal to build such a thing would be...Trump.
This year, conventional wisdom has been thrown out the window.
No could about it. It will shift towards Trump.
I’ve been on record as predicting a Hillary win.
Nice daydreaming by the author but if demographics don’t chip in for her, there’ll be massive vote fraud.
That’s a certainty if its close.
To beat the odds, Trump will have to win by double-digits.
We’ll see who is ahead in October.
I agree that 2016 is asymmetrical, but it is still going to boil down to Florida and Ohio. The 2012 electoral map still has to be the starting point for analysis as long as no more legal problems appear for HRC.
I agree. No Republican has ever won the WH without OH.
As the underdog, Trump has his work cut out for him.
Hillary is beatable but it’ll require a lot of hard work and dedication between now and November.
Trump could win Nevada and Arizona and New Mexico and California and Idaho and Montana even maybe Washington state. Not because everyone’s republican but because Hillary is so strongly disliked by Most D voters. I figure at least half of them could vote for trump if he campaigns well for them. Just like when Reagan ran — a charismatic R candidate ( now that’s been awhile, ha!) and an intensely resented or hated D (if Hillary is able to buy the D nomination). This doesn’t mean all these voters will forever remain in the R column, it’s not every election when the D’s nominate such a weak candidate as Hillary ( if they do — a tremendous gift !(
Trump could win Nevada and Arizona and New Mexico and California and Idaho and Montana even maybe Washington state. Not because everyone’s republican but because Hillary is so strongly disliked by Most D voters. I figure at least half of them could vote for trump if he campaigns well for them. Just like when Reagan ran — a charismatic R candidate ( now that’s been awhile, ha!) and an intensely resented or hated D (if Hillary is able to buy the D nomination). This doesn’t mean all these voters will forever remain in the R column, it’s not every election when the D’s nominate such a weak candidate as Hillary ( if they do — a tremendous gift !(
NV, AZ, ID and MT are solid Trump.
The Left Coast states of WA, OR and CA are a lost cause - no Republican will carry them.
NM is a possible toss-up but at the moment leans D.
Her crooked Hillary tagline is fulfilling as she runs, I think she is toast and will attempt a Sanders VP slot out of desperation.
This already is out of date given that Trump now leads in OH and NC and is tied in FL, VA, and PA.
Winning the national popular vote typically means winning the presidency; the Electoral College matters only in very close elections, and most of the time not even then. Trump is already ahead with the popular vote...
Hillary has almost zero real voter support in californication, polls notwithstanding she’s just not liked at all. A charismatic R could win there. Reagan did and if anyone says demographics have changed that’s not the whole story. The largest demographic shifts have been Chinese moving in and blacks moving out. The Chinese are mostly from communist prc and so start out leaning D. But they have mostly normal family and sexual values _ the D party alienates and disgusts them. Also they are largely very wealthy and tend to go into business and investments here. Such folks often , not always , discover conservativism when hit with califirnicstion’s extremely expensive business regs plus its astronomical state taxes on just about everything. The Chinese and Latinos for that matter are quite winnable. It’s just they no R has campaigned for them in so long that most of them don’t think about voting R anymore. If s charismatic R with $$$ campaigns seriously there, California is very winnable. It costs money, though, the media costs are sky high there.
Millions of Sanders supporters are going to stay home - watch.
Look for “smartphones” to come into play in regards to detecting any massive voter fraud because of the cameras on those phones.
Key states for me are:
Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada.
If Trump wins all of them, he wins the election. If he loses even one, it will be very hard to overcome.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.