Posted on 06/26/2016 3:33:18 PM PDT by MaxistheBest
Putting Hillary over the 50% mark will be a big deal for her campaign to tout on the media trail, and a twelve point deficit is a rather glum number to saddle Trump with. And despite the sampling used (which we’ll get to in a minute) this is the same poll that had Trump up by 2 a month ago. Still, the methodology matters and this one will be open to some of the same questions. .
The survey was conducted June 20-23 and we’re going to see some of the same issues raised about this poll as with the Reuters one. The sample size is fine, at roughly 1,000 respondents, but the demographics are rather dubious. They included 36-24-33 Democrats, Republicans and independents for the full sample and 37-27-30 DRI among registered voters. Even granting the Democrats a built-in party advantage for the general election, that’s a pretty wide spread in Clinton’s favor.
You can also draw comparisons between the ABC survey and the new Wall Street Journal / NBC poll which came out at the same time.
This one has a far more balanced spread in terms of the sample rates, was held during the same time period and used the same number of respondents. (The WSJ poll reflects a roughly D+4 spread while ABC’s is up around a dozen.) but it’s still essentially within the margin of error, showing a very tight race. And people are noticing the disparity of of the party split between the two polls.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
Mark Murray ✔ @mmurraypolitics One difference b/w the NBC/WSJ and ABC/WaPo polls?
NBC/WSJ has party ID at D+4 advantage.
ABC/WaPo has party ID at D+12
Carter has huge lead over Reagan. Dewey defeats Truman. Abe who?
The sadder Hitlary does, the better the polling for her. The more that people agree with DJT, the worse he does.
Disconnect from the reality is going on here.
Yet another “junk survey.”
After the last 7 1/2 years NO ONE trusts the MSM anymore. No one.
Don’t trust the MSM with the news or polls.....you know what they want.
Is Jazz Shaw that transgender teen on TLC??
YIKES....who the hell is THAT??
Maybe this is a flawed poll, maybe it isn’t, however, we should take nothing for granted. We need to approach this election under the premise that we will have to fight for every single vote right up until the last polling place closes on election night. Hillary and her minions will go all out, and so should we. When you see a poll like this one showing Hillary in the lead, don’t immediately dismiss it as a biased poll. When you see a poll showing Trump in the lead, don’t sit back and relax and assume he’s got it in the bag. Don’t assume Hillary will be indicted and forced to drop out of the race - Obama has already made it clear that’s not going to happen. The next time Hillary has a coughing spell, don’t assume she will drop out of the race for health reasons. The Clinton crime family and their friends in the media will do whatever it takes to put Hillary in the White House. We have to fight them as hard as we can every step of the way. It’s better to fight hard right up until election day, and find out afterwards that Trump won easily than it would be to take things for granted and realize later that we made a horrible miscalculation.
Where is Hillary anyway? Seems based on these polls that her numbers get better the less she speaks.
Doesn’t matter whether the people trust the MSM or not. If they pitch the story that Hillary is the front-runner by a large margin, Trump is in trouble.
She hasn’t been exposed by the FBI and a common criminal yet.
I notice a misspelling of “millstone”
REMEMBER BREXIT POLLS!!! These polls are PURE BS!!!!!
“The Clinton crime family and their friends in the media will do whatever it takes to put Hillary in the White House.”
Including bombing us daily with junk polls. But you’re right: semper paratus.
Sympathy vote. You better believe it exists. If she is indicted, her standing will go UP. If by some miracle there was a trial and she was convicted before the election, she would win in a landslide of historic proportions.
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