Posted on 08/05/2016 5:22:45 AM PDT by Tau Food
I have tried hard to not buy into the ‘polls are skewed’ argument this year...
But the polls are really just an echo chamber for the pollster’s predictions - and his predictions are used to shape his sample, and how he weights D, R, and I. And, the pollsters are logically using historical turnout to shape their demographic models.
But here’s the rub: There has never been a candidate quite like Trump.
I’m not going to try to calm myself by automatically dismissing the polls...but I do take them with a grain of salt.
In the Georgia primary, 1.3 million republicans voted, and 760k democrats voted...although HRC got more vites than Trump, 543k vs 502k, due to strong Rubio and Cruz totals.
And in 2012, it was Romney 2 million vs Obama 1.8 million.
What should I conclude from this latest poll? For me, its not just that HRC is leading...its that in this same poll she was trailing last week that is concerning. No matter whether or not HRC is truly ahead, the trend is definitely in her favor. Hopefully Team Trump will adjust...they have to...but they’ve still got time to do that.
Just stop. Trump will not lose Georgia.
Take your negative bullshit somewhere else.
Poll shows 767 respondents. If you look at the inte D,internals , D+R+I only = 657. That 110 is in the mists, was other arty folks who favored Trump. Then the sample was D 28.8 R 26.5 I 30.4 (Without the special sauce 110 surveys). Using Gallup’s survey of Party ID 39.8 D 43.7 R 16.5 I, then adjust leaners from partis to independent, you get D 34.6 R 37.9 I 27.5. This means D +5.8 R -11.4 I+2.9. The actual Poll looks like this: Trump 40.7, Clinton 40.7 Johnson 9.5 Stein 1.4.... How do these AJC people look at themselves in a mirror with a straight face?
Poll shows 767 respondents. If you look at the internals , D+R+I only = 657. That 110 is in the mists, was other arty folks who favored Trump. Then the sample was D 28.8 R 26.5 I 30.4 (Without the special sauce 110 surveys). Using Gallup’s survey of Party ID 39.8 D 43.7 R 16.5 I, then adjust leaners from partis to independent, you get D 34.6 R 37.9 I 27.5. This means D +5.8 R -11.4 I+2.9. The actual Poll looks like this: Trump 40.7, Clinton 40.7 Johnson 9.5 Stein 1.4.... How do these AJC people look at themselves in a mirror with a straight face? (Fixed bad typo)
What state has 14% who are not D R or I? And why wouldn’t they post them
What state has 14% who are not D R or I? And why wouldn’t they post them
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