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2016 Battlegrounds: Trump keeps it close in Southwest, faces steep climb in Virginia
YouGov/CBS ^ | 8/7/16 | William Jordan

Posted on 08/07/2016 10:02:21 AM PDT by BigEdLB

Tight races in two Southwestern states and wide margin in Virginia show how 2016 could continue to be an election of surprises.

Hillary Clinton holds a narrow two-point edge over Donald Trump in Nevada, earning 43% against Trump’s 41% among likely voters in a swing state George W. Bush and Barack Obama both won twice.

In Arizona, which has only voted Democratic once since 1948, it’s Donald Trump with the slim lead, topping Clinton 44% to 42%.

But Clinton could be headed for a relative blow-out in Virginia, where she leads Trump 49% to 37%. In 2008 Obama turned Virginia blue for the first time since 1964 and repeated the feat in 2012, when his victory margin in the Old Dominion mirrored his 3.9 point national lead almost exactly.

(Excerpt) Read more at today.yougov.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Arizona; US: Nevada; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; 2016swingstates; clinton; polling; trump; va2016
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Bad demgraphics except AZ where Trump is slightly ahead
1 posted on 08/07/2016 10:02:21 AM PDT by BigEdLB
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To: BigEdLB

I wish people would stop posting these polls. We are 3 months out and people are wringing their hands over these phony polls. The only one that counts is on November 8th.


2 posted on 08/07/2016 10:03:39 AM PDT by Catsrus (Don't let Hillary, the crook, off the hook.)
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To: BigEdLB

Proximity to DC has poisoned VA.


3 posted on 08/07/2016 10:07:14 AM PDT by MUDDOG
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To: All
AZ 1095 LV D-28.9, R-31.9, I-37.6 .. R+2.9
Gallup says:R+1.4
Net oversample:R+1.5
Trump +2
True Internals: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/rbrsruvo0s/ForRelease_AZ_20160807.pdf

NV 993 LV D-39.6, R-27.7, I-30.1 .. D+11.9
Gallup says:R+4.1
Net oversmple:D+16.0
Clinton +2
Internals: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/z0kcmymyf0/ForRelease_NV_20160807.pdf

VA 1181 LV D-36.6, R-26.3, I-35.3 .. D+10.3
Gallup says:R+1.6
Net oversmple:D+11.9
Clinton +12
Internals: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0s16edyeli/ForRelease_VA_20160807.pdf

4 posted on 08/07/2016 10:08:56 AM PDT by BigEdLB (Take it Easy, Chuck. I'm Not Taking it Back -- Donald Trump)
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To: BigEdLB

Surprises might abound. We need to look at states that have suffered horribly under Obama, which are thought of as pretty secure for the dems but probably aren’t.


5 posted on 08/07/2016 10:10:28 AM PDT by grania
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To: BigEdLB

Trump can win Californicate!
The people on Nancy Pelosi’s doorstep want Ronald Reagan back!!!!
see today’s poll:

www.smdailyjournal.com

(poll is at upper right......and is still ongoing... RWR leads JFK by 8 points so far!!!!)


6 posted on 08/07/2016 10:10:36 AM PDT by faithhopecharity ("Politicians are not born. They're excreted." Marcus Tullius Cicero)
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To: BigEdLB

7 posted on 08/07/2016 10:10:39 AM PDT by disndat
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To: BigEdLB

I don't care about poles. These are not news. These are not anything.

8 posted on 08/07/2016 10:13:49 AM PDT by chris37 (heartless)
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To: Catsrus

I post to show how bad the internals are, and illustrate why the polls are a source of amusement like the old, “Mad Magazine”. Everyone claims they are bogus. How they did the party weights explains why they are bogus.... Shortly: The real answer using the Gallup samples.


9 posted on 08/07/2016 10:13:51 AM PDT by BigEdLB (Take it Easy, Chuck. I'm Not Taking it Back -- Donald Trump)
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To: Catsrus
I wish people would stop posting these polls. We are 3 months out and people are wringing their hands over these phony polls. The only one that counts is on November 8th.

As Ann Coulter proved in her book Slander, the Dems do these poll manipulations to discourage R and I voter turnout.

I believe that the tactic works best only if there is not a good R candidate that really does have more than casual support and is worth going out in the rain to the rigged polls to vote for. A roundabout way of saying that DJT is worth going to the trouble of voting for and Hitlary is not.

It will take a DJT landslide to overcome the Dem fraud.
10 posted on 08/07/2016 10:14:29 AM PDT by Resettozero
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To: BigEdLB

They have imported enough voters to turn VA Democrat for statewide races.


11 posted on 08/07/2016 10:17:36 AM PDT by Lurkinanloomin (Know Islam, No Peace - No Islam , Know Peace)
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To: Resettozero

It will take a DJT landslide to overcome the Dem fraud.
******************************************************

Correct, our best hope is massive turnout of people who did not vote last time. There are signs that this is happening.


12 posted on 08/07/2016 10:20:04 AM PDT by Lurkinanloomin (Know Islam, No Peace - No Islam , Know Peace)
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To: BigEdLB
Lib pollsters pull this every year. Your GOP candidate is so bad he could lose solid red state like Arizona.

Here's 2012 how "Obama Threatening in Arizona."


13 posted on 08/07/2016 10:22:27 AM PDT by nhwingut (Trump-Pence 2016 - Blow Up The GOPe)
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To: BigEdLB

CBS poll = DNC propaganda


14 posted on 08/07/2016 10:22:44 AM PDT by Repeal 16-17 (Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
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To: BigEdLB

Beware of ANY poll data. Proven crooked and loaded for Hitlery already.


15 posted on 08/07/2016 10:30:37 AM PDT by EagleUSA
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To: Catsrus

Trump’s appeal is more to working class / blue collar than Romney. So, the map opens up a bit.

THINK: Romney states + Florida + Ohio + Iowa + …
Nevada + New Hampshire = 269 a tie AND VICTORY in the Congress

OR: + Florida + Ohio + Iowa + ...
Wisconsin = 269

OR: + Florida + Ohio + Iowa + …
Colorado + Maine 2nd District = 269

Pennsylvania is also in play.

So, while every electoral vote is precious, and we absolutely have to win Florida and at least one of Ohio and Pennsylvania, we have a lot of paths to the White House.


16 posted on 08/07/2016 10:37:04 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: MUDDOG

Alas, too many of us here are beholden to Fedzilla. . . Between Civil Service and Contractors, especially here in Northern Virginia, a huge chunk of the economy is locked to the Feds. . . .


17 posted on 08/07/2016 10:38:49 AM PDT by Salgak (You're in Strange Hands with Tom Stranger. . . .)
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To: MUDDOG
Proximity to DC has poisoned VA.

You're right. Virginia is now blue. Too many people there are voting to hold on to their comfy jobs.

18 posted on 08/07/2016 10:40:05 AM PDT by Sales Rep
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To: BigEdLB

So you’re saying that in NV and VA, they have a phony D edge of 10.1 and 13.5, respectively????


19 posted on 08/07/2016 10:41:03 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: BigEdLB

Using Gallup AZ Clinton +1 Change -3, Nevada Trump +12 Change +14, Virginia Clinton +5 Change +7.. Their AZ oversampled Rs slightly, so that is how it came out like that... Incompetent, and poor selection of demographics...


20 posted on 08/07/2016 10:42:46 AM PDT by BigEdLB (Take it Easy, Chuck. I'm Not Taking it Back -- Donald Trump)
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