Posted on 08/11/2016 5:56:23 AM PDT by Maelstorm
I wonder where the Gary Johnson support is coming from.
On no evidence other than gut, I’d be it’s from country club Republicans in Democratic states like California and New York, i.e., completely irrelevant to the Electoral College vote.
Exactly that... Trump has to have a greater than 5% lead among men... or else we need to “Clint Eastwood” some of that 47.5% of pu$$ies.
Most polls show Gary Johnson approaching 10% and Jill Stein approaching 5%. The popular vote winner may have the lowest percentage of the vote since Richard Nixon in 1968.
The debates are the next big game changer, barring some tremendous world event (9/11esque). That’s why they hid the debates as much as they could.
Hillary usually leads by over 95% for the black vote. for her to be at 80% is a sign she is losing. If Trump gets over 25% of the black vote Hillary is toast and I suspect Trump is already there.
Johnson has nine percent (9%) GOP support, three percent (3%) of the Democratic vote...
That #### Johnson.
Stein gets three from dems (i would strongly assume that almost all of her voters are dems and assorted freaks) so that’s only a net 3 from repubs. that johnson steals.
Have to get the yoot vote to go Stein more.
I wonder how much Johnson was paid or what he asked for in order to run.
johnson is costing trump a net -6 to hillary. that would provide the margin of victory for him.
libertarians. meh.
Libertarians are like Cruz: self-absorbed, unable to see the real world consequences of their actions, vainly imagining the purity of their thought is so special that real world be damned, their long shot fantasy is worth any sacrifice, even putting Hillary in office til 2020.
The most recent polls I’ve seen all show the total third party vote hurting CLINTON.
We may end up having Jill Stein to thank.
You have it bass ackwards, Catmom.
Johnson supporters need to consider how dangerous Hilllary is.
[I love cats too, BTW. Petting one who is on top of my PC between posts.]
Or do they expect Trump to wake up one day and endorse Johnson? “Hey, I’m down to 38%. Guess I’ll throw it in now and endorse Jehnson.”
God forbid he ever drops that low. But when it comes to crunch time I’m curious how many anti-Trumps are more interested in punishing him than in saving the USA from Hillary’s judges.
And Trump doesn’t restrict himself to debates. Even after it’s over, he tweets.
Hillary could make him flounder like a fish out of water, but then he tweats.
Debates are not the same anymore unless consultants bog you down.
Jill looks kinda sexy
You mentioned that in this poll, Trump has only a 5% advantage in this poll amongst men?
No freaking way. Maybe some hot-sounding babe asked “Do you like Hill... ary more?” And then with distate she adds, “Or Trump?”
Please explain that conclusion, because you have to figure that the bulk of Gary Johnson voters would vote for Trump in a two way race, and Johnson is drawing several times the number of poll votes as Stein is. There doesn't seem to be any other third party candidate with as much as 1% in the polls.
So intuitively, you have to think that the total third party vote (which is mostly Johnson) hurting Trump more than Clinton.
Please explain that conclusion, because you have to figure that the bulk of Gary Johnson voters would vote for Trump in a two way race, and Johnson is drawing several times the number of poll votes as Stein is. There doesn't seem to be any other third party candidate with as much as 1% in the polls.
So intuitively, you have to think that the total third party vote (which is mostly Johnson) hurting Trump more than Clinton.
Beck is making an all out effort to put Hillary in the White House and in charge of replacing 5 Supreme Court justices.
There will be excuses all over the place. When you have polls today with Hillary +1 and others with Hillary +12, someone is going to have egg on their faces. This doesn’t even count any late event (eg: email leaks, terrorist attack, etc). My point was that in each of the last 3 presidential elections, the polls had different “winners” in terms of accuracy so just looking at 2012 only seems silly.
>> Please explain that conclusion, because you have to figure that the bulk of Gary Johnson voters would vote for Trump in a two way race, and Johnson is drawing several times the number of poll votes as Stein is. There doesn't seem to be any other third party candidate with as much as 1% in the polls. <<
I think Gary Johnson really shot himself in the foot by picking big-government liberal RINO William Weld as his "Libertarian" running mate. I don't know any disgruntled conservatives who are considering Johnson after that move. Even the Paulbots seem to like Darrell Castle more than Johnson.
The Johnson/Weld ticket is to the left of Hillary on some social issues, the media is blabbing about some virtually non-existance Bernie Sander voters switching to Trump in the general. More likely, the ones who don't switch to Hillary will either stay home, vote for Jill Stein, or vote for Johnson -- in that order. I can see Johnson picking up a small chunk of Bernie voters in states where Stein isn't on the ballot and he's the only "Not Trump/Not Hillary" option on the ballot.
I still haven't met a single conservative voting for Johnson, but its pretty clear to me that Stein will draw the vast majority of disgruntled lefties, and Johnson will draw disgruntled voters from both parties, although his appeal will be limited.
In theory, Darrell Castle COULD unify the NeverTrump conservatives around his candidacy, but his campaign seems virtually non-existent because A) Nobody ever heard of him and he's getting ZERO media coverage, and B) He's not on the ballot in most states, and voters are unlikely to make the effort to write him in. Another disadvantage he is is that there's several other conservative third party candidates competing him with him, such as FR's own Tom Hoefling launching an independent bid. The Constitution Party had a golden opportunity to pick up disgruntled conservative Republicans this election cycle, but they're really dropped the ball.
“On no evidence other than gut, I’d be it’s from country club Republicans in Democratic states like California and New York, i.e., completely irrelevant to the Electoral College vote.”
I’d agree with that in large part.
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