Posted on 09/09/2016 12:58:46 PM PDT by usafa92
Washington, DC- After two weeks with few self-inflicted losses, Donald Trump’s favorability rates have stabilized and he remains tied with Hillary Clinton in the national head-to head. Clinton, on the other hand, has seen her unfavorable ratings going up over the last few weeks, potentially as a consequence of the steady drip of negative stories
General Election Matchup
Hillary Clinton’s lead over has remained relatively stable over the past week. Among likely voters, Clinton leads by 2 points (40% Clinton to 38% Trump), up from 1 point last week.
Clinton’s lead is the same in the 4-way ballot including Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Jill Stein. Clinton still leads among likely voters by 2 points (Clinton 40%; Trump 38%; Johnson 8%; and Stein 3%) and among registered voters by 3 points (Clinton 39%; Trump 36%; Johnson 9% and Stein 5%
Favorability scores for Donald Trump are stable (if low) with 43% of registered voters viewing him favorably, down from 44% last week. Hillary maintains a slight favorability score lead from last week with 45% viewing her favorably and 55% of registered voters viewing her unfavorably.
Other Trends
With just less than one-fifth of Americans ranking the economy as their main concern on the list of problems facing America, terrorism takes second place with 15%.
President Barack’s Obama approval rating among all-Americans remains unchanged at 47%.
In our generic congressional ballot question, Democrats are still favored with a 6-point advantage among registered voters.
Let’s remind everyone it was REUTERS that SHUT DOWN the video feed for every news outlet at the Detroit Black church event when it became obvious that the ceremony was so moving and sincere. Scummy lefty outfits just can’t stand the truth.
How many people do you think are NOT answering polls properly or at all for fear of some undeserved backlash against them for supporting Donald J. Trump?
Just saying. How many of you agree?
If Hitlery Clinton is actually polling these numbers, there’s a major problem with the electorate. In a sane world, a world that cared about integrity, character, leadership, honestly....she’d be laughed off the stage when she made her announcement.
I can’t believe that these polls are accurate.
The truth is most people don’t like either of these candidates. I live in what is normally a very politically active suburban community. Sixty days prior to an election you’d see signs and bumper stickers for candidates in nearly every yard. I haven’t seen any.
The thing that Trump has going for him is he’s still a bit of an unknown. If he can just seem relatively normal over the next two months he’ll pick up more votes. Nobody’s changing their mind about Hillary at this point. Unfortunately, there are still many people out there who feel safer with Hillary as more of a known commodity, even if they know she’s pathological.
Some... maybe 5%... very hard to guess. About the same percentage that thinks they are more likely to get audited if they are conservative, or to get their cars keyed.
The Lois Lerner episode crystallized the sense that the government is not impartial when Libs are in power, and is happy to use its power against citizens. Why unnecessarily be in a database which lists your political preferences? Isn't that why we have anonymous voting?
Rotgut uses a new methodology that makes Hillary’s numbers better
than they are.
"Perhaps the clearest statement concerning the threat we face today, and which all free people will always face, was expressed years ago by President Woodrow Wilson. He observed, 'The history of liberty is a history of the limitation of governmental power, not the increase of it. When we resist, therefore, the concentration of power, we are resisting the processes of death, because concentration of power is what always precedes the destruction of human liberties.'"This astute comment can be aptly rephrased to include the concepts of poverty and prosperity, for concentration of governmental power and poverty go hand-in-hand, while human liberty and prosperity have always accompanied each other. Regardless of the sincerity of the intentions, to restrict freedom in the name of helping the poor is to engage in a destructive endeavor. The creative way to help the needy is to secure the freedom for individuals to pursue their interests voluntarily and peacefully. In such pursuit, free men will bring about an expanding economy, unlimited opportunity, and enduring prosperity." - Roger Beam, Chairman, FEE
GIGO
I think, far more than you admit, that many people support Trump but are “Trump shamed “ so they aren’t really vocal or have signs.
Also-—and Trump’s organization is partly to blame—they haven’t been real good about having traditional offices with signs, etc.
Apparently, lawn sign don't make a bit of difference.
If Trump is within two,and you are not filtering for LIKELY voters, just registered voters... Hillary is down 2-3, take it to the bank.
Lawn signs are a way for campaigns to make a little cash, and for those who plan on voting to support and for them to get names for their rolls...
In a national election, I really don’t think anyone in modern times is likely to have changed their decision based on a yard sign, unless it was simply they desired to follow the herd because most of their neighbors are visibly backing a candidate.. but an individual yard sign in and of itself is about allowing the supporter to show support, not about influencing others... at least in a national race.
Local race, name recognition needs yard signs could swing things.
I agree, I think Trump easily has 2-3 points of support that are not getting picked up because voters will not tell pollsters they intend to vote for him... last poll I saw showed 17% of registered republicans would not tell pollsters who they intended to vote for, and 10% of registered democrats as well refused to say...
the 17% of repulicans if most intend to vote Trump would be around 3-4%... which is right about where I believe Trump’s Bradley effect support is.. the 10% dems... well if Trump gets more of those than Hillary does... its more net game for him as well.
When you also take into effect that Trump is going to get disenfranchised voters, people who haven’t voted in several cycles... people who most polls will filter out as unlikely when they do their analysis, I think trump has another 1-2% at least there... so on average, I suspect Trump’s support is generally 4-5% higher than most polls are showing.
I believe you will see those unwilling to say they are voting for Trump begin to admit to it, as it becomes clear he is winning.. not all, but more of them will start to admit it and his numbers will go up... and as his numbers go up... they will start to go up more as more people are willing to openly admit they support him.
I expect Trump support to start to KNEE (bend substantially upward) right around the time of the first debate... a little bit before perhaps... and if he comes out of the debate looking reasonable... then you wills start to see floodgates open.
“The truth is most people don’t like either of these candidates...Sixty days prior to an election you’d see signs and bumper stickers for candidates in nearly every yard. I haven’t seen any.”
Hmm. I live in a mostly conservative, fairly nice neighborhood in FL, and there are easily more political signs (all for Trump or local figures—I haven’t seen a single one for Hillary) than in 2012. Nearby, someone even built a big frame for his Trump sign out of 2-by-4s so it’s higher in the air. It probably depends on where one lives whether the people are more or less excited about Trump than they had been about Romney. Where I live, there is more excitement for Trump (he won my precint in a big landslide during the primary too).
Knowing a lot of lefties and how intolerant they can be, though, I can see why some people wouldn’t want to put out Trump signs in less conservative areas, even if they really do like Trump.
The difference in polling due to shy voters is one thing.
I see a much bigger difference in voter energy. The 10,000+ Trump supporters who broke all time attendance record at the Xfinity arena a week ago plus the 5000+ who get not get in time, will walk through broken glass to vote. On the other hand, 10-15% of voters polling for Hillary are not going to bother voting if it is raining, cold, or any other excuse.
I have a bunch of Trump signs for the car, but I have not pasted any of them. The hate in HiLIARy voters is scary.
I have Trump bumper stickers but won’t put them on my car for fear of getting keyed or some other damage.
12-13% independents were polled. Since Trump leads Mrs Cosby by 20+ this erases any lead.
5 independents were polled.
I’ve noticed the same thing where I live. Very few political signs, though I don’t get out as much as I should. I’ve noticed more Trump/Pence bumper stickers.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.