Nate Silver's prediction now showing dead heat (Clinton 51.5% chance to win and Trump 48.5% chance)

538 ^ | 9/26/16 | Nate Silver

[aimhigh]

Clinton 51.5% chance to win and Trump 48.5% chance.

These numbers are a win for Hillary. Trump needs to be higher by at least 5% just to beat the dead voters.

[georgiarat]

Nate won’t flip to Trump favor unless he does well at the debate. The liberal media, actually that includes 95% of print and television) are doing everything they can to push Clinton hoping she can win the debate. If she does not things fall quickly.

[Hieronymus]

These numbers aren’t percentage of voters. The key is to be outside the margin of lawyers in the states in the middle, and the polls aren’t going to give us that info if the thing is remotely close. Silver has only an 8.8% chance of the result of the thing ending that closely, though his model would have baked into it the perpetual fraud that occurs in that he looks closely at the relationship between polls, however crooked, and actual results, however crooked.

[Hieronymus]

Nate won’t flip to Trump favor unless he does well at the debate.

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Maybe, but the lates update pushed Trump to 48.8, reducing the gap by 1/3rd, mostly courtesy of an Iowa poll that pushed Iowa to 72% likely.

[Hieronymus]

He’s already flipped all three of the senate ascenarios, as well as the presidential now-cast.

[Voluntaryist]

[Voluntaryist]

Oops wrong thread!!!

[Political Junkie Too]

I just updated my forecast model with the polls released today on RCP.

I now have Trump with an expected value of 259 Electoral College votes, with a 46% chance of winning. This is 3% higher than the weekend.

-PJ