Posted on 10/21/2016 8:23:52 AM PDT by hawaiian
Just sayin'
The mounds of exposed corruption piling up on Hillary is going to take its toll. Late-breakers are going to go for Trump.
Must we re-open these still festering wounds?
I know, there are lessons to be learned.
Now you know why Gallup is not polling the 2016 election.
Gallop was MORE accurate than the actual “vote”.
This is why the Obama administration THREATENED Gallop.
And it is why Gallop no longer does presidential election polls. Too dangerous.
See here
http://www.dickmorris.com/obama-thugs-rough-up-gallup-for-polls-they-dont-like/
Lot’s of fraud then. Even more now.
Thanks.
Do you really think that BO doing the disaster crying thing helped him in the election?
Then I just give up on some of the American voters.
THIS is why, honestly, Gallup got out of polling the Presidential election.
Yes - that (Christie helping BO look presidential) coupled with Romney getting snookered in the debate when the CNN reporter stomped on him - claiming (along with BO) that “the video” was in fact the reason for the Benghazi attack.
Romney looked like a buffoon - and never recovered...
I remember that well. Also Carl Rove telling us how Romney had it in the bag on Fox news with his map showing us how Romney should get about 325 EV’s This week Rove was back on Fox telling us that its not a matter of if Hillary will win but just how big the margin will be. The good thing is Rove is wrong 90% of the time.
When Obama came to NJ after Sandy, Christie met him with a bromance embrace. It looked like Poomba and Timon together in Lion King. Many conservatives vowed to punish Christie for his obvious stab in Romney’s back.
Probably didn’t make that much difference, after all, but it might have been a major reason why Christie’s candidacy bombed this election cycle.
“Was this before the Krispy Creme embrace?”
Before.
Hurricane Sandy was a few days before Halloween. I remember taking my son trick-or-treating in the dark. The Obama / Christie walk down the shore was the weekend before the election, IIRC.
Before the Candy Bomb went off.
Gallup went out of the polling business because they called it wrong.
Numbers were right but it was reversed.
This was before the hug and the miraculous and sudden “drop” in the unemployment rate. I hope wikileaks exposes the lies on that fiasco someday.
Late-breakers are going to go for Trump.”
So in other words, this is going to be very different from 2012, when late-breakers when HEAVY for obama.
In the last two elections, late breakers broke for the incumbent. One question is, does the electorate see the hildabeast as an "incumbent"?
The trends showed the challenger surging until early November, then a collapse in support for both McCain and Romney.
Now for a twist on the trend. Neither McCain nor Romney campaigned like they wanted the job. Trump is a whole 'nuther story there.
I remember the mood around here was Romney? meh, but Obama? well I guess we have to vote for Romney.
Problem was, maybe one-third of evangelical Christian voters kept to themselves a strong enough objection to Mormon religious beliefs that they either (a) stayed home on election day or (b) chose Obama or some other candidate.
I hope this time around the small fraction of evangelicals who can’t warm up to Trump sense enough of a chill coming off the Clinton glacier that they hold their noses and vote for Trump — otherwise we’re going to see the same results if we can even believe the results anyway.
How can this be? FOX CNNews says nobody likes Trump and he is finished. They have not found anyone who will vote for him.
Pray America wakes
Late breakers went for Obama in 2012 because of the Christie incident. That storm gave Obama the chance to look presidential and all of that in the face of a disaster, with a Republican slobbering all over him. Christie elected Obama in that moment.
There ... I fixed it.
I think your analysis is correct as far as it goes, but I base my observation on these facts:
In 2008, Obama had 69.5 million votes and won by 9.5 million. The popular vote was 58.2%
In 2012, Obama had 66 million votes and won by 3.5 million. The popular vote was 55% about the same as 2004.
From this I deduce that Sarah Palin’s presence on the ticket brought out the sort of evangelical voters who often decline to vote because of the generally unsuitable nature of both tickets, while at the same time it probably alienated a larger number of moderates. But if the stay-at-home evangelicals had voted for Romney, he might have won or at least tied Obama in the popular vote more or less. The results in the 2012 electoral college would require more study time than I have right now.
Yes - it was after Romney’s trouncing of Obama in the first debate and prior to the hurricane taking Romney completely out of the news cycle with Obama dominating the same, followed by Christie going all over the news networks gushing with praise for Obama - over the top praise.
In the end I don’t know that it would have altered the ultimate outcome, although it probably did flip a few of the very close states...probably Florida would have been in Romney’s column as that was a less than 1% margin and all of that with the hurricane, etc. was enough for at least 1% of the vote to switch sides...but just Florida was not enough.
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