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Professor’s ‘primary model’ says Trump will win the election – FishTank (87% chance)
RT America ^ | 10/20/2016 | Lindsay France

Posted on 10/22/2016 6:01:26 PM PDT by GilGil

While most polls show Hillary Clinton comfortably ahead of Donald Trump, some pollsters are worried that not enough people are participating in these polls for there to be a representative sample size. Professor Helmut Norpoth, of Stony Brook University, joins RT America’s Lindsay France in the FishTank and says not enough people actually answer their phones when pollsters call, and also explains that his method for predicting presidential winners has worked in every election the past 100 years except for the 1960 election. He believes Trump has an 87 percent chance of winning the popular vote.

(Excerpt) Read more at youtube.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016; 2016polls; clinton; election; helmutnorpoth; norpoth; predictions; primarymodel; stonybrook; trump
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As I keep saying, when you watch Trump's surrogates they have an excitement about this race that is palpable as if they know something that they won't share yet! Norpoth has been visible lately with his prediction and he does not waver from what he sees. This is probably the monster vote tsunami lurking and carrying Trump to victory.
1 posted on 10/22/2016 6:01:26 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: GilGil

Polls are rigged to show Hillary ahead.

And new voters aren’t counted which probably understates Trump’s strength a great deal.

If Hillary’s ahead, its not evident from the “tells” sent out by the respective campaigns.


2 posted on 10/22/2016 6:05:58 PM PDT by goldstategop ((In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever))
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To: GilGil

I think the people ignoring polling requests is huge. I am one of them. I have voted in every election since 1972 and was involved in Democratic politics years ago. The dishonesty of the Democrat Party has turned me against them and I am now Independent.

I refuse to answer the phone if I do not recognize the calling number.


3 posted on 10/22/2016 6:06:28 PM PDT by Finnwolf
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To: GilGil

I asked my wife today, how we should celebrate Trump’s win on election night.

We couldn’t decide, but I think me and the kids will go outside and blow the horns on all four of our vehicles.

For starters.


4 posted on 10/22/2016 6:08:24 PM PDT by Windflier (Pitchforks and torches ripen on the vine. Left too long, they become black rifles.)
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To: Windflier

For Starters,,
Then Gloat to All Your Libtard “Friends”


5 posted on 10/22/2016 6:21:12 PM PDT by Big Red Badger (UNSCANABLE in an IDIOCRACY!)
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To: Windflier

Champagne is involved here!


6 posted on 10/22/2016 6:24:15 PM PDT by BunnySlippers (I Love Bull Markets!!!)
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To: Finnwolf

According to pew, as few as 5% answer the phone and that’s of the people who still have a landline


7 posted on 10/22/2016 6:29:04 PM PDT by rb22982
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To: Windflier

A 21-gun salute. With 21 different guns...


8 posted on 10/22/2016 6:32:27 PM PDT by W. (Blue eyed murder in a size five dress...)
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To: Big Red Badger

“Gloat to All Your Libtard “Friends””

I almost wish I had some libtard friends to gloat TO, but I don’t. I snipped all those connections ages ago.

One thing I might do, is mount Old Glory and the Gonzales flag to the back of my truck and ride up and down the boulevard tooting my horn.

Gotta make sure to wear my MAGA cap while I’m at it :-)


9 posted on 10/22/2016 6:37:17 PM PDT by Windflier (Pitchforks and torches ripen on the vine. Left too long, they become black rifles.)
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To: W.

“A 21-gun salute. With 21 different guns...”

I like it!

Best done outside the city limits, though.


10 posted on 10/22/2016 6:38:42 PM PDT by Windflier (Pitchforks and torches ripen on the vine. Left too long, they become black rifles.)
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To: BunnySlippers

“Champagne is involved here!”

We might do the same if I can convince my wife to close the shop on Wednesday the 9th :-)


11 posted on 10/22/2016 6:44:00 PM PDT by Windflier (Pitchforks and torches ripen on the vine. Left too long, they become black rifles.)
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To: Windflier

Would the Confederate Battle Flag
send a proper message?


12 posted on 10/22/2016 6:49:13 PM PDT by Big Red Badger (UNSCANABLE in an IDIOCRACY!)
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To: GilGil

Would love to believe a Trump victory is that certain....but his prediction model doesn’t take into account #1- the constant decline in % of voters that are white, and #2- Voter fraud/illegal immigrants voting etc....

Not to mention we have a candidate running that BOTH party establishments, along with the media & Global elites wanna crush (though I guess that technically would fall under the voter fraud part)

I do think he pinpoints the enthusiasm gap, Trump has that on his side bigtime


13 posted on 10/22/2016 6:50:03 PM PDT by Bruiser78
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To: GilGil
...his method for predicting presidential winners has worked in every election the past 100 years except for the 1960 election...

1960 was the year the union mob stuffed the ballot boxes in Illinois and Virginia to steal the election for JFK.

It it ain't close, they can't cheat.

Trump in an historic landslide!

14 posted on 10/22/2016 6:50:56 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (The more secretive/unjust an organization is, the more leaks induce fear/paranoia in its leadership.)
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To: Bruiser78

Would love to believe a Trump victory is that certain....but his prediction model doesn’t take into account #1- the constant decline in % of voters that are white, and #2- Voter fraud/illegal immigrants voting etc....

_____________

this is a red herring!


15 posted on 10/22/2016 6:51:05 PM PDT by GilGil (E. Deplorables Unum)
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To: Windflier
You have less than 3 weeks to decide how you will celebrate so make up your mind. President-elect Trump will be the talk of the planet. Here is a typical Hillary rally.The woman at the bottom left of the picture looks so happy and enthusiastic. Typical Hillary supporter.Look at their faces. They look like they are at a funeral.
16 posted on 10/22/2016 6:57:04 PM PDT by GilGil (E. Deplorables Unum)
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To: Big Red Badger

“Would the Confederate Battle Flag send a proper message?”

Well, considering this is Texas, it might not get that much notice. We see those flags every day.


17 posted on 10/22/2016 6:58:08 PM PDT by Windflier (Pitchforks and torches ripen on the vine. Left too long, they become black rifles.)
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To: Windflier

I plan to go down to the coffee shop early morning after and high-five all the former dem blue collars and tradesmen who are on the Trump train. They’re loud and proud, and I’m proud of them!


18 posted on 10/22/2016 6:58:12 PM PDT by ntnychik
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To: Finnwolf

I get one or two phone calls daily and it is crazy. Ring, “hello?”, pause, then hang up. If there is a pause, then drop it. Politicians are hiring people to make zillions of phone calls yet who answers the phone. Waste of time and money. Hillary is evil and people knew that a long time ago.


19 posted on 10/22/2016 7:01:32 PM PDT by Falconspeed ("Keep your fears to yourself, but share your courage with others." Robert Louis Stevenson (1850-94))
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To: GilGil

The guys look happy,
Hitting on stupid Libtard women.


20 posted on 10/22/2016 7:08:12 PM PDT by Big Red Badger (UNSCANABLE in an IDIOCRACY!)
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