Posted on 10/22/2016 11:35:48 PM PDT by WilliamIII
If you ask most pundits – and indeed, most voters – who’s likely to win the presidential election on November 8th, the answer, overwhelmingly, would be Hillary Clinton. Some odds-makers, including noted statistician Nate Silver, place her chances of victory at somewhere near 90%.
And, of course, a spate of new national polls, most of them sponsored by media companies that unabashedly support Clinton, suggests that the former First Lady enjoys a large and widening lead over Donald Trump.
The race is over, many analysts say.
But not all pollsters agree. In fact, three of the most recent national surveys still show the 2016 contest as a statistical dead heat (or Trump slightly leading). And when non-conforming polls come in threes, they’re not so easy to dismiss as “outliers.” They even beg the question as to whether any of the polls can be trusted to predict the election.
If history is any guide, they can – and these outlier polls may be closer to the truth than many people realize.
For one thing, the firms sponsoring two of the polls have a sterling record. One is IBD/TIPP, which is considered by experts like Silver to be the nation’s single most reliable pollster. Not only did the firm accurately predict the outcome of the last four presidential elections, it did so with uncanny accuracy. Silver found that it came closest to predicting the 2012 election, not just Romney’s victory, but the actual point spread.
And it’s not just IBD/TIPP. The second polling group that finds the current race a dead heat has also successfully predicted past elections. Its sponsor is the LA Times/USC consortium (hereafter LAUSC), a partnership between the nation’s third ;largest newspaper and two prestigious research centers at a prestigious university
(Excerpt) Read more at natmonitor.com ...
Based on my research and as someone who has always been willing to criticize Trump or his supporters when appropriate, this article is absolutely right that the IBD and L.A. Times poll, which both show Trump marginally ahead, were two of the most accurate in 2012.
Rasmussen also has Trump ahead now, but they were one of the most inaccurate in 2012.
So either Rasmussen has cleaned up its act or the other two just got lucky in 2012. Note that founder Scott Rasmussen left that company in 2013, so that may indeed be an indication they have recalibrated their polling methods since their failure in 2012.
Thanks. It just seems so odd that the 3 polls seem to stubbornly stick to what they’re sticking to when there are all these other polls showing different results.
If I was in charge of these polls showing Trump ahead I would be desperately checking and re-checking my results to ensure I was doing it right. This action would seem to drive the polls to greater credibility and reliability.
After all, I would think we are talking about real money lost here if those polls turn out to be wrong, not mention profession credibility.
We can add Immigrants from India which is no small number. I think when it comes to white men only the most incredible wusses will vote for her.
Their credibility is always going to be based on their last poll before the election. They can always claim the current polls were right, but the public’s mood shifted right before the election.
There’s also the conspiracy theory angle where most of the polls sponsored by MSM media outlets may be trying to show a Clinton win. Because the MSM both hates Trump more than McCain and Romney and believes Clinton is more at risk of losing and needs more help than Obama in 2012.
I don’t even know what all the polls said 2 weeks before the vote in 2012. It’s hard to go back and look at more than that final poll before the election from each outfit.
It may not be worth spending time looking at the polls so much right now anyway, because of the fact things can change rapidly. I’m always concerned about the Dems turning up those “people who don’t pay attention to politics” at the last minute and scaring them into voting against the mean, evil Republican.
Apparently the word “outlier” means “the ones that were the most accurate last time”.
Who knew?
Only most PC wussie, brain dead males, will vote for her and the ones who want to keep their power and make more money corruptly.
The best I’ve found on that point (accuracy leading up to the election) above.
I had seen that article, but I wanted to see how far apart the last poll was from the one a couple weeks out, not just the average.
Well, let’s see if we can find it before too long
It’ll only be a surprise to those gullible enough to believe the lying MSM and their polling numbers. BTW, all Canadian media is now declaring Hillary Clinton as President.
This poll would have been released about 28 days prior to the election. Only one I have found so far.
According to the chart at bottom Pew finished in the middle of the pack accuracy wise.
Pew Research Center.
“The survey of likely voters conducted between October 4 and October 7 showed Romney taking a 4 percentage edge over Obama – a clear sign of the bounce he received from his strong debate performance last week.” (Romney lost by 3.85%, so this poll a month out was off by almost 8%, BUT they finished high in the accuracy chart I previously posted)
Here’s the full list (polls with an asterisk were more favorable to Obama, and polls without were more favorable to Romney):
1. PPP (D)*
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP*
3. YouGov*
4. Ipsos/Reuters*
5. Purple Strategies
6. NBC/WSJ
6. CBS/NYT
6. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Angus-Reid*
12. ABC/WP*
13. Pew Research*
13. Hartford Courant/UConn*
15. CNN/ORC
15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)*
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup
26. NPR
27. National Journal*
28. AP/GfK
The polling companies will revert to their 1980 games.
Take a poll in the next week or so and don’t release the results until after the election.
See—we knew Trump would win. It was a list minute turnaround but we caught it!
F___ing lying jerks.
I pray to God daily , that He dispatch His emissary , Azrael , to go to her in the night and place his cold kiss upon her brow .
You watch, the pollsters are now having to start backpedaling to save credibility by schmoozing there earlier remarks that Trump is toast.
Yes, Azrael would be well suited.
It’s Romney in blackface
The good news is that half of them will be either so drunk, so coked up or so busy with their faces in each other's crotches that they'll forget to go vote.
folks : pray specifically , that the Lord dispatch Azrael to visit Clinton
Nothing is impossible for God .
We have the God given right to petition Him
” OTOH, there is absolutely NO, nada, ziltch, bupkis, zero enthusiasm for Hillary.
Trump has locked in many black, Hispanic, Chinese, NEVER VOTED/HAVEN’T VOTED IN DECADES, disaffected Dems, Indies, union members, GOP voters...TRUMP’S ARMY !”
I wholeheartedly agree. In a fair election, with no fraud, no tampering, he should win in a landslide.
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