Posted on 10/23/2016 4:05:13 AM PDT by rb22982
With 16 days to go until November 8, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 2 percentage points — 43% to 41% — in a four-way race, according to the latest IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll.
Unrounded, Trump leads 42.6% to 40.8% — a 1.8-point edge — with Johnson at 7.2% and Stein at 3.3%.
Trump also holds a nearly one-point lead in a two-way matchup — 43.2% to 42.3%.
(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...
2 - this poll is reweighting their sample of R33/D33/I34 to R29/D37/I34 (7% R-D rounded) to get their Trump +1.8%. If you use their original mix, Trump is up 7% - T45.7%, C38.6%,J7.4%,S-3%, Other/DK: 5.4%. So they are modeling turnout to be slightly worse than 2012 for Rs vs Ds.
3 - The 3rd party votes and undecided #s are shrinking slowly each day. Let's hope if that trend continues they break Trump 2:1
4 - Trump is winning among independents 44-31% and is down only 2% on the West, Midwest and the NE.
“2 - this poll is reweighting their sample of R33/D33/I34 to R29/D37/I34 (7% R-D rounded) to get their Trump +1.8%. If you use their original mix, Trump is up 7% - T45.7%, C38.6%,J7.4%,S-3%, Other/DK: 5.4%. So they are modeling turnout to be slightly worse than 2012 for Rs vs Ds.”
I think the original weighting is more correct.
Putting Trump up 7 would give him about 52% to 55% of the vote
There are a LOT more going 3rd party compared to last time. Last time was less than 2% in the election and I think the polling had it around 2% as well. This poll is showing 11% for Johnson and Stein. That is a highly underreported shift in the electorate. The question is should we consider them lost voters or should we consider them as persuadable as the undecideds?
Here is hoping the Trump train will motivate voter turn out unlike Romney who had a disastrous turnout because of bugs in his system.
I don’t know when the term “virtue signaling” was coined, but I first heard it only in the past year or so.
It is exactly what third-party voters are doing. It is also what NeverTrump abstainers are doing. They are fundamentally unserious narcissists.
I’m betting Johnson and Stein don’t even get to two percent.
How many think the Romney get out the vote drive crashing, was sabotage?
I’m seeing a lot of Gary Johnson signs in the Seattle-Tacoma area, more than Trump. Have seen NO Hillary signs.
Interesting take, never considered it until now.
Obama won by 4+. Trump will win by 5-7+.
Its somewhat loaded with Ds so its way off.
But polls are beginning to reflect reality so they want to get it right.
I’m confident that more voters will want Trump.
But I admit to being concerned that Hillary thinks this is in the bag because she controls all aspects of counting the votes.
Trump did a smart thing by getting people aware of voter fraud. But in the end, will the media convince people that evidence of 110% turnout of registered voters is merely “sour grapes” by the guy who lost?
From a campaign perspective though, the largest block of unreached voters out there are the 3rd party voters, even larger than the undecideds.
It suggests realigning campaign strategy in unprecedented ways. Trump has made the odd move of trying to appeal to former Bernie Sanders voters. But it sounds like a smarter strategy at this point would be to appeal to libertarians and Johnson voters.
This is awesome news from someone who used to live there. That said, Wa always goes to the dem candidate.
One sign for pickles at the corner of a 4 way intersection outside of Columbia.
I agree with your adjustments, but it is impossible to believe Johnson will get 7.4%. The last not R, non D to hit that number was John Anderson.
I think J is looking at 3 tops.
Yup.
That said, Hillary won’t win the Left Coast by the margin a D candidate typically does.
She ain’t Obama and her base isn’t into her like that for just that reason.
“The question is should we consider them lost voters or should we consider them as persuadable as the undecideds?”
I think most are “parked” voters, voters who are telling pollsters they are voting third party because they do not wish to admit they are voting for Trump. There may even be some that do not with to admit they are voting for Hillary.
‘But in the end, will the media convince people that evidence of 110% turnout of registered voters is merely “sour grapes” by the guy who lost?’
Who cares what the media does . . Trump is doing exactly what he needs to do at this point in the election. Brilliant. If not now, never. This is when HE needed to bring it to the PEOPLE, and he did. Hope the voter fraud narrative continues, right to the end. Media has been SHAMED just like the GOP. Good for them both.
“How many think the Romney get out the vote drive crashing, was sabotage?”
It was one of my first thoughts. The Veritas videos show that is the sort of thing the Democrats excell at.
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