Posted on 10/25/2016 11:54:47 AM PDT by oblomov
Well Dems win PA (like they win most states) by huge margins in major cities that just overwhelm the rest of the state... I just don’t think Hillary (even with traditional fraud) is going to get it done... As I pointed out elsewhere, R’s have put up about 2.7M in the box every one of the last 3 elections, and they were dogs at the top... an unpopular president during war, and 2 absolute dogs, and they still could put 2.7 in the box. D’s on the other hand put about 3M then 3.3M then 3M... I just don’t see Hillary getting anywhere near Obama’s 12 or Kerry’s 04 numbers (which were about the same).... I expect her to be closer to Gore’s numbers which were about 2.5/6M... Trump on the other hand is the first real R candidate to have insane enthusiasm and support here... He should easily be putting 3M into the box if not more.
Time will tell, but I just don’t see Hillary, even with philly fraud, getting those sorts of numbers, she has no innate support or enthusiasm anywhere... She’s far less popular than Obama was in 12... so she should be significantly below his numbers... while Trump is astronomically more popular than any R ever in this state, and I’ve been here since 86.
Thanks for all the thoughtful analysis and good info for PA.
Sounds reasonable.
If Trump wins PA, he's definitely the next President.
Do you have any thoughts on Trump's chances in MI and WI? Or even VT and NH?
The Revolution is ON!
Vote Trump!
Which means that Hillary is not leading by double digits nationwide...
The Revolution is ON!
Vote Trump!
See post 60...
I really even with big fraud, see how she is going to hold PA... I just don’t see it...
She has no enthusiasm, Trumpocrats are everywhere... hundreds of thousands of folks have actively changed their registrations... and many many more disaffected and disenfranchised D voters are planning on showing up that haven’t voted in years to pull the lever for him.
Kerry and Obama in 12. both were about at 3M votes.. 08 was a 3.3M.... Hillary’s support and enthusiasm is NOWHERE near Obama or nearly the motivation to vote for Kerry (unpopular war election)... I really don’t think she can put more than 2.5/6M votes in the box.
Meanwhile R’s have put ~2.7M in the box each of the last 3 elections even with dogs at the top of the ticket... Trump’s enthusiasm and support should EASILY get him 3M votes in PA... and I just don’t see how Hillary gets there in Pa.. I really don’t.
I hope and pray that you are right.
Having lived in this part of the country for 30 years... I just don’t see how Hillary sells here... not with the destruction that these states have endured... Life long democrats are watching their american dream being stolen from them by their own party and government... Trump dropping the “Free Trade” nonsense, was one of many things that finally put an R up that these folks can and will vote for.
Go across any of these states and just look at the small towns devastated by Nafta and WTO.... places that were good places to live and work are now collapsing under failed policies... kids are winding up addicted to heroine flowing across the southern border, because there is literally little hope for anything better for them there... Parents are raising grandchildren in decaying neighborhoods because their own kids can’t find any work beyond Walmart or the Speedway....
These folks followed the rules, worked hard their whole lives and watched it turned to dust... then they look at HIllary someone who lies, cheats and steals... living the life of luxury and in her ivory tower, corrupt as hell, and they are going to vote for her???? Not on your damned life.
This has been happening for decades all across the rust belt, and the D’s didn’t care, they took the lower class/working class white vote for granted... and they are going to speak damned loud and clear in a few weeks.
I have felt MI and WI are just as much a play for Trump from day one as PA... same macroeconomics... MI does have a different demographic breakdown.. but with Hillary’s pure lack of support, I think Trump can play there yes.
WI, I was worried the GOPe may have poisoned the general election with their attempts to stop trump there in the primaries.. but it doesn’t seem so. I don’t know what the polls are saying, but I’d expect Trump to play there as well.
I do expect Trump to take most of the rust belt.. MN and IL are the only two that I thought were out of reach... nothing I have seen has changed that assessment.
Time will tell.. but I really really really don’t see how Hillary doesn’t lose big in the rust belt...
PA alone the numbers just don’t add up for her... even if she were to somehow miraculously get Obama/Kerry type of numbers.. I think Trump going to do better than that... and I just don’t see her able to get those kind of numbers.. her innate support and enthusiasm is nowhere... its nowhere near Obama was last cycle, and he was down HUGE from 08... and its certainly nowhere near the 2004 cycle where an unpopular war etc was motivating turnout.
R’s can put 2.7M votes in the box in PA with dogs like McCain and Romney and Bush in 2004 (yes he was very unpoular then here).. Trump should be blowing that turnout out of the water.. and other than the just flat out insanity of 2008, which was an even more UNPOPULAR George Bush driving the vote... Trump should easily be at (if not well above) 3M votes in the box... I just don’t see Hillary performing on par with Obama in 12 and Kerry in 8... I just don’t see it... I expect she’ll be closer to Gore in 2000.
Trump needs to visit Michigan. It might be play as well.
And he's quite correct. But there are two solutions to that paradox. One of them requires that Clinton wins in a landslide. The other one requires the opposite.
Likewise, I live in east Denver and there is Just one Bernie sign on my block. Zero Hillery signs. And of course zero Trump signs. Democrats in east Denver are possible terrorists. Trumpers are keeping quite. And the Dems are not active.
If MN goes Trump it's over for shillary.
But I don't think it will.
What do you base MN being a draw at this point?
Wow! That is great news!
I agree Il isn’t going Trump.
As I said Il an MN should be automatic Hillary.
It Trump takes MN it. Will be a very very bad night for Hillary.
Most postulating I have seen on MN seems to be that Bernie backers just aren’t moving to Hillary.. If that is true that may allow Trump to eek out a surprise there... Though I personally would be surprised if it happened.
Oh wait, you didn't...jackass!
Bah. Bad poll. +9 Republican !!!
Republican 43%
Democrat 34%
Non-Partisan 23%
Florida, and now Ohio? Things are beginning to look really good...
You can bet your money that if the election is close the Traitor Kasich will ensure Hellary wins the state
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