I agree. The waiver is a separate issue from confirmation. The latter now only needs a majority, but a waiver will require a change in the existing law, and that change could theoretically be filibustered.
But Democrats are not going to go to the mats with a filibuster over the waiver. They will save the filibuster for more important matters, or risk the Republicans nuking the legislative filibuster as well.
Furthermore, Mattis is enormously popular, especially with enlisted military forces and veterans. There's about a dozen Senate Democrats who are facing very tough races in 2018. Think they are going to oppose Mattis and thereby guarantee their defeats? Think they can withstand the enormous public pressure that voters in their home states will apply? I don't. The waiver will pass easily.
But Democrats are not going to go to the mats with a filibuster over the waiver. They will save the filibuster for more important matters, or risk the Republicans nuking the legislative filibuster as well.
Agreed. There are a bunch of Dem Senators up in 2018. They won’t die on this hill. Trump won their states by 10-19%! You think Nelson, McCaskill, Tester, Heitkamp, etc. want a bloody fight on something trivial like a waiver for a popular General like Mattis? NO chance. LOL.