Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
Oh crap. 0500 update, center on Okeechobee.
Ch. 6 Orlando shows the eastern trend with the Euro running almost on top of the Florida eastern coastline and the other models further east. “If the trend continues this will be good.”
https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/905360310160293888
NWS San JuanVerified account @NWSSanJuan
5:00 AM EDT Advisory/Advertencia #29: Hurricane/Huracán Irma. #prwx #usviwx
Per Ch.6 in Orlando the eye of the hurricane is 40 miles wide,the storm is 500 miles wide. Hurricane force winds extend 60 miles out from the hurricane. Tropical Storm force winds extend 160 miles out. If it comes into S. Florida it would be a CAT 2 or 3 in Central Fl.. with strong winds nevertheless. Lets hope the eastern trend continues.
Is it my imagination, or does Cantore seem a bit disappointed that the models are shifting eastward?
Thanks! Fingers crossed, prayers it just turns and misses all land.
Going in to work now.
The storm has to make a pivot to the north before 80 degrees West for it to have a shot at remaining offshore.
Any comparison with the early track of the Great New England Hurricane of 1938?
I’m all set for blizzards up here, drive to work with 2” an hour and near zero visibiity, but hurricane prep, not so much.
Computer/ensemble tracks moving a bit east again - still has Florida lined up as a “landing strip” but we can hope for a earlier/harder turn.
That stayed north of the Antilles, east of the Bahamas and remained well offshore until making an initial landfall in the northeastern US. This storm has already crossed Barbuda in the northern Antilles and will move west-northwest, affecting the Bahamas before South Florida enters the tropical storm force and then Hurricane force windfield.
Like I said: c’mon 80W. Turn baby turn.
Bkmrk.
Color me shocked...not
Ayayay
bkmk & prayers for the islanders
cll--glad you checked in...well, sort of checked in...
Thanks
I can’t tell if that storm looks like Godzilla . . . or a puppy.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
If Irma goes south of Cuba, it will probably be on track to hit the Yukatan. If it crawls along the north coast of Cuba, it’ll probably go into into the Gulf. If it goes into the Gulf, then it could go anywhere, but most likely the Miss/Ala border. Hope I’m wrong, got a lot of folks there and got them on alert as well.
Been through too many of these darn things, but this one is truly scary. A high Category Three is my “get out of Dodge” level and this is a Five.
Minimum Central Pressure...918 MB...27.11 Inches
Very bad news
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