Posted on 09/07/2017 8:09:47 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Mayor Turner and all city and county agencies were FANTASTIC during Harvey.
But what do I know? I just lived through it.
Two points: first, the strength could certainly increase, given that the hottest water temperatures are about to be encountered. However, a brush with Cuba could mitigate that intensification. Joe Bastardi, for one, is still thinking that this could deepen a bunch and become a Cat 5 again.
Second: the European models (the ECMWF and UKMET) are both on a Key West direct hit. Most other models suggest something in the mid keys.
Looks like FL is doing pretty well to me, and they haven’t even enacted contraflow yet. I’m sure there are ways to improve, but it looks OK to my mind.
There are very few people in South Florida 30 or even 20 miles inland. I live about 10 miles inland and am just about 3 miles from the Everglades. After that there is basically nobody.
However, the models now show Irma's eye going up the center of the peninsula so the question is how much it will weaken on it's way north. I am hoping for well under 100 mph winds by the time the eye is due west of us in the center of the Everglades.
Bastardi said that he thought Irma would intensify before moving into Florida because conditions just south of Florida were ‘favorable’ (water temp and such) for that to occur...we’ll see.
Yes, that can't be said enough. People who are 20 or more miles inland should be sheltering in a sturdy home or a local shelter. 10-20 miles can use their judgment. Anyone in Florida with a mobile home needs to look for a local shelter. But the idea that everyone inland in Florida needs to go north is incorrect.
I don't know the population density around Miami and along the coast (say 10 miles). I suppose it's pretty high and that's a problem
But on the flip side the NHC predicts cat 4 with two caveats. Both caveats will make Irma less than cat 4. The 20-30 mile (inland) destruction zone for Andrew and for Camille will be smaller for Irma.
Again, they’ve had a fair amount of lead time here.
I listen to Dan LeBatard’s radio show, which is based in Miami. They all bugged out Wednesday night after talking about it for two days. The storm won’t hit until Sunday, correct?
On the other hand, my FIL is north of Orlando, and it took him 90 minutes to find gas on Wednesday.
Thanks. I didn't know the population density. The really severe wind swath along and just to the right of the eyewall may go through the dense population or may not. Too soon to tell. People who are there should be looking around for sturdy shelter locally to ride it out. Also the cat 4 prediction is currently the high end prediction. The NHC has added caveats that it could be less (in their discussion)
Amen Sky Pilot Amen!
“This morning it looks like most of the models are starting to agree with landfall near Naples/Fort Myers”
I have a brother in Naples.
He’s staying put but his g/f and him (along with the cats) are moving to the g/f’s brother’s house. It’s a new house and is set (per code) for at least a Cat 4.
“According to you, your God is killing innocent people just to punish a few, you are a sick individual.”
Read about Achan and his family in Joshua 7.
Also, God punished everyone for the sins of two people, Adam and Eve.
Just sayin’...
If Irma’s eyes goes directly thru center of the peninsula north then the worst winds will be in mostly unpopulated Everglades. Also as it moves North, the eye should weaken.
“...Irma would intensify before moving into Florida because conditions just south of Florida were ‘favorable’ (water temp and such)...”
I was kinda wondering the same thing. I kept thinking “How much could Irma intensify once it hits the Gulf Stream?” IIRC, other Freepers have referred to the water temps as very warm. That could spell trouble.
Are you descended from the religious side or the adventurer portion of the Pilgrim Fathers? Your views would not be out of place in 17th Century Massachusetts, but are out of step with modern sensibilities there. Which does not make them wrong.
If true, the alligators are in for a wild weekend. I guess that does seem like one of the best possible paths with regard to affecting the least amount of people but I assume Miami would still see some serious storm surge if the eye moved through the Everglades.
I-10 West from Lake City/I-75 to Tallahassee is busy - very slow near the capital.
I-95 shows orange/red between Brunswick Savannah and I-26 in S. Carolina; I-26 toward Columbia is similarly slowed.
I-75 from about Tifton to Atlanta is also slow and go.
I dropped the Salvation Army because they were the most aggressive junk mailer I have ever seen. About two letters per week begging for more money.
There's good reason why LeBatard and his broadcasting team have left: the current track of Irma means the Miami area gets the east side of the hurricane, which means the potential for much more damage than the storm centered off the east coast of Florida. It appears that LeBatard's show may not return until at minimum one week from this coming Monday....
Thanks a lot. Much appreciated. Basically, a direct hit on my daughters house, Sugarloaf Key,glad she left.
Prayers it goes well. My family got out Tuesday
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