Posted on 04/25/2018 1:00:40 PM PDT by Kaslin
RUSH: There was a special election in Arizona yesterday, and the Democrats, they had already put it in the hopper as a win. They were gonna win and it was just the beginning, the next phase of this gigantic blue wave that’s gonna happen in November. Except it didn’t happen. The vote count as of this morning wasn’t final, but Republican Debbie Lesko is ahead of the Democrat Hiral Tipirneni by a five-point margin.
It wasn’t supposed to happen. So here we have a CNN story, here’s the headline: “Why the Win for Republicans in Arizona 8 is Still Good for Democrats.” You see how this works? Even when the Democrats lose, they win, and it’s been this way with every special election they have won this year and last. Oh, yeah, this is big for the Democrats. This ought to have the Republicans very, very nervous.
What do you mean? You guys said the Democrats were gonna win this. We have been told, we have been taunted, they have told us gleefully for 12 months that no Republican will ever win another election because of Trump. The entire country, the entire country was going blue, the country’s fed up with Trump, the country hates Trump. Even Trump voters are embarrassed and wish they could take their vote back, and they will the first chance they get.
But somehow a Republican woman won yesterday in a special election in Arizona, which means the Republicans hold onto the seat, Arizona 8, Debbie Lesko has now defeated this guy, I think the final margin was six points. That is wider than the polling has been in this race. Once again polling got it wrong. But here’s how they do this. They say, “Well, it was much tighter than the over 20 points by which Trump won in 2016.” So they’re doing here what they tell us we can’t do.
Let me give you a comparison or an analogy. The way they’re doing this is comparing a presidential turnout to a single race, or very few races on the ballot, practically entirely local election, two completely different it turnouts, and yet the Drive-Bys here are treating them as the same.
So what they want their readers to believe is that in a district that Trump won by 20 points, the Republican held on to it, but only by six, which means Trump is really losing popularity. The Republicans are really losing popularity. And this means even with this win, the Republicans know they’re in deep trouble.
The Democrats lost the seat! They thought they had it in their back pocket. This is like trying to compare a midterm election turnout with a presidential year turnout. They’re different. Different energy, different issues, different types of demographics represented.
Overall turnout is much different in an off-year election than a presidential election. The same thing here. But the media is trying to conflate the two and have them mean the same thing. And every media story about this covers it the same way: “Why the Win for Republicans in Arizona 8 is Still Good for Democrats.” AP: “GOP Unsettled By Narrow Win in US House Race in Arizona.”
Yeah, it took a big-money push from the GOP, tweets by Trump, and the support of the state’s current and former governors, but the GOP held on to Arizona 8, they would have never considered endangered in another year. So we’re supposed to sit here and say it’s weird that the president would support the candidate; it’s weird the party would support the candidate; it’s weird that the state’s current and former governors would support the candidate. That’s weird?
It took a big money push from the GOP. It took tweets by Trump. And it took the support of the state’s current and former governors, but the GOP held. Isn’t that what happens in every election? For the most part. Republicans came out and supported their candidate! The candidate won! Somehow this is problem for the Republicans. They had to do this? Isn’t this the way Democrats — didn’t they think Hillary was gonna win simply by doing nothing?
They thought Hillary was gonna win without Hillary campaigning. She didn’t have to go to these blue states ’cause it was in the bag. Meanwhile, Trump’s out there working it and working it, and he ends up winning the presidency. The Democrats are discombobulated and bamboozled. It’s odd that the Republicans actually campaigned? It’s odd the Republicans actually spent money on the seat? So the Republicans did. And, by the way, I thought Trump was an albatross. I thought Trump was a drag on the ticket. Why did Trump’s tweets help?
If everybody hates Trump — so goes the thinking — and if so many people want Trump gone, if so many people regret their vote for Trump, how come Trump was able to help Ms. Lesko win?
BREAK TRANSCRIPT
RUSH: Yeah, yeah. I’m gonna give you an example of what I’m talking about here. But first in Arizona, let me tell you why the Democrat lost — and the margin of defeat for her was six points. She lost. The Democrat’s name is Hiral Tipirneni. She’s down by six. She ran as a full-fledged liberal Democrat. The Democrats are feeling it. I’ve told you they’re taking the mask off. They’re overly confident, they’ve become arrogant, and they think — because the lies they tell themselves and the disservice their lying media does reinforcing lies that they end up believing. She ran as an open liberal and got trounced.
The Democrats that have won special elections have hidden it. In many cases, they sounded more conservative than their Republican opponents.
Dem’s 2018/20 Blue Wave!
Thanks to Navy Patriot and ObozoMustGo2012 for the above!
crap analysis by MSM and RATS.
Flake won his seat by a 3.02%
It’s more than a little worrisome that Debbie Lesko should narrowly beat a Hiral Tipirneni. Someone with an out-from-left-field exotic foreign name should not only lose by 6% - it should be a landslide loss. Mid-terms are usually (relatively) better for the GOP because Republicans always vote, whereas Democrats tend to do mainly presidential years. Still, a win is a win is a win, and there are six months to get ready for the big game.
And a decades-long GOP seat in Long Island just went blue.
No time to get complacent!
Thank you for posting.
Have you considered possible Democratic ballot box stuffing?
Hacking Democracy - The Hack
Flake ran statewide, which includes Democrat-infested cities. Lesko was running in a GOP stronghold, and her predecessor never won it by less than 20%.
| U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Republican |  Trent Franks Incumbent |
68.5% | 204,942 | |
| Green | Mark Salazar | 31.4% | 93,954 | |
| N/A | Write-in | 0% | 75 | |
| Total Votes | 298,971 | |||
| U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2014 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Republican | Trent Franks Incumbent |
75.8% | 128,710 | |
| Americans Elect | Stephen Dolgos | 24.2% | 41,066 | |
| Total Votes | 169,776 | |||
| U.S. House, Arizona District 8 General Election, 2012 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Republican | Trent Franks Incumbent |
63.3% | 172,809 | |
| Democratic | Gene Scharer | 35.1% | 95,635 | |
| Americans Elect | Stephen Dolgos | 1.6% | 4,347 | |
| Total Votes | 272,791 | |||
Your post is an example of many that are ignoring the bigger picture.
These special elections are a result of GOP House member scandals.
Trent Franks resigned over a scandal.
GOP voters are not as forgiving as RATs on scandals.
GOP voters express this disappointment by not showing up
at the polls. This election was not about Trump, it was about
Trent Franks.
These special elections do not indicate any Blue Wave.
Only disappointment in GOP House members who have been
caught in scandals and were forced to resign.
That's what I thought. This has been described as one of the most solid Republican districts there is. It should not have even been close. I don't understand what Linbaugh's motivation is, portraying this as an impressive victory.
I can't imagine how the 'pubs will have anything near a majority in the HOR and US Senate if they don't get their acts together SOON and start legislating on issues that are important to their voting fodder.
| U.S. House, Arizona District 8 Special Election, 2018 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Republican | Debbie Lesko |
52.61% | 91,390 | |
| Democratic | Hiral Tipirneni | 47.39% | 82,318 | |
| Total Votes (100% reporting (143 of 143 precincts)) | 173,708 | |||
This was a win, but it proves the Dems have a huge momentum gap in their favor.
This was a highly red district, the Dems nearly got Presidential year turnouts in this special election, while the Republicans didn’t even match a midterm turnout. They only held because the district was so red it held....
Folks celebrating this win are fools.
The GOP better get onboard with MAGA and start proving to the MAGA non traditional, non base voter that they have a reason to care and show up in the fall or a lot of purple and pink districts are going to go D.
The fall election is a referendum on TRUMP if you are a left winger, and a referendum on the GOP for everyone else... and right now the GOP is losing that argument BIG TIME.
This was a win, but it proves the Dems have a huge momentum gap in their favor.
This was a highly red district, the Dems nearly got Presidential year turnouts in this special election, while the Republicans didn’t even match a midterm turnout. They only held because the district was so red it held....
Folks celebrating this win are fools.
The GOP better get onboard with MAGA and start proving to the MAGA non traditional, non base voter that they have a reason to care and show up in the fall or a lot of purple and pink districts are going to go D.
The fall election is a referendum on TRUMP if you are a left winger, and a referendum on the GOP for everyone else... and right now the GOP is losing that argument BIG TIME.
EXACTLY! This is NOTHING to celebrate! They put up nearly presidential election year numbers and the GOP couldn’t even get a mid term turnout!!!
The GOP needs to wake its incompetence arse up and realize it NEEDS the MAGA non traditional voter to care and show up come fall, because right now they haven’t given them a reason to, or even tried to talk to them.
The fall dynamic is this:
For the left its a referendum on Trump and they are going to crawl over broken glass to vote against him.
For everyone else its a referendum on the GOP, and the GOP has done a piss poor job giving those non traditional, no core MAGA voters a reason to show up or care.
The Republicans are on path to lose the house this fall.. a lot of pink and purple districts are going to be lost. Unless the GOP gets its act together, they are losing the house this fall, take it to the bank.
They will gain senate seats, but they are going to lose the house.
About the only prayer for the GOP to hold the house at this point is for the Democrats to openly run on impeachment, if they do that, then the election becomes a referendum on Trump for everyone, and if that happens the GOP gains 20+ seats.
But the GOP has shown it doesn’t understand, and doesn’t care about the MAGA and non traditional voter, their messaging in every one of these special elections has been the same old tired messaging they have been using for nearly 20 years... messaging that never got those MAGA voters to vote for you before, not now suddenly it will?
The GOP is simply messaging to its base, and that will let them hold deep red districts, but it will do NOTHING to help them hold purple an pink ones... The GOP is on path to lose 10 or more seats just in the upper midwest alone if nothing changes.....
Complete incompetence, up and down the entire GOP ecosphere.
GOP kept a safe seat in AZ, narrowly. Lost a 40 year GOP seat in NY.
Sorry, but the Dems didn’t get PRESIDENTIAL Year turnout in a special election because the seat was made vacant by a scandal.....
The willful blinders worn by so many in the GOP/Right to what is going on on the ground and WHAT HAS TO BE DONE TO FIX IT is astounding!
The GOP is on path to lose the house this fall... unless they drastically change direction and messaging. See my other post on this thread.
see 14 and 15..
Unless the GOP drastically changes message and direction they are going to handily lose the house this fall.
They need to wake up and realize preaching to the choir is NOT going to win them pink and purple districts this fall.... a lot of them are going to flip, not all.. but more than enough to give Dems the house if they don’t get their heads out of their own rear ends soon.
I think all this gun control hysteria has energized the base. Not to mention most people don’t like being chastised by the punk Hogg kid. And who is behind these companies turning on the NRA? there hase to be some financial threat going on for companies like Yeti to go lib.
They will hold the Senate, and likely gain 6 or more seats there... there just aren’t that many states that can flip due to enthusiasm.... However I completely agree and have stated repeatedly they are on path to lose the house.
it won’t be a 1994/2010 bloodbath, but the GOP will lose the house this fall because they are frankly, incompetent.
They are running elections like its still 2000, using rovesque techniques and messaging in the age of Trump.. They are not remotely reaching out and giving those non traditional MAGA voters a single reason to care or show up this fall. In fact, they haven’t even attempted to talk to them... Just ads targeting the core base... and this is fine for deep red districts, but absolutely NOT going to counter the Dem enthusiasm gap in Purple and Pink ones....
They won’t all flip, but more than enough are going to to give the Dems the house....
GOP’s entire ecosphere is utterly incompetent, they truly don’t know who the electorate is.
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