[NautiNurse]

All links are self-updating. All graphics may be enlarged by clicking on them. Please be considerate of fellow FReepers and their families who may be in the path of the storm.

[ExSoldier]

We retired and moved from Miami to Tennessee last December. We had 18 storms under our belts including Andrew and just couldn't face another season. Feeling so BLESSED that we chose to do so, now.

[SkyPilot]

Nurse,

New details from the National Hurricane Center from about an hour ago.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/281510.shtml

Some highlights:

With the exception of COAMPS-TC and HMON, the other reliable models are in excellent agreement through day 3, with Dorian turning westward south of the ridge and moving near or over the northernmost islands in the Bahamas Sunday and Monday. After day 3, steering currents collapse as a break develops in the ridge, and Dorian will likely slow down considerably as it approaches the Florida peninsula. There is more spread among the deterministic models and their ensemble members during that time, with disagreement on exactly when and where Dorian will turn northwestward and northward on days 4 and 5. That being said, the tracks of the simple and corrected consensus models on this cycle did not warrant much change to the official NHC forecast, with perhaps just a slight southward adjustment on days 3 and 4. The biggest concern will be Dorian's slow motion when it is near Florida, placing some areas of the state at an increasing risk of a prolonged, drawn-out event of strong winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall.

The upper-level low to the west of Dorian continues to impart some southwesterly shear over the hurricane, which has prevented it from strengthening rapidly. However, Dorian is expected to enter a more favorable upper-level environment during the next 24 hours, which should allow its structure to become more well developed. Although overall the environment ahead of the storm appears conducive for strengthening, some models (in particular the ECMWF) suggest that some northerly shear could come into play while Dorian moves through the northwestern Bahamas, and for that reason the NHC official intensity forecast is not quite as bullish as the HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and HWRF models. Still, Dorian is forecast to become a dangerous major hurricane later and maintain that status as it heads for the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula.

[chemicalman]

MSM salivating that Dorian is headed straight for Mar-a-Lago and Rush’s EIB empire. Stay safe, folks, no matter who you are.

[Biggirl]

Thank-you for the updates, prayers, God Bless.

[NautiNurse]

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS DORIAN A LITTLE STRONGER...

Summary Of 0800 AM AST...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...About 410 MI ENE of the Southeastern Bahamas
About 505 MI E of the Northwestern Bahamas
Max Sustained Winds...110 MPH...
Moving...NW at 12 MPH...
Minimum Pressure...972 MB...

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 mi.

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[ScottfromNJ]

Euro, GFS models now showing landfall near West Palm Beach, ICON seems to be shifting south with landfall near Miami.

[varina davis]

SAVE

[NautiNurse]

......EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN POSES A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT TO FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS DORIAN IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...

Summary Of 200 PM AST...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...About 445 MI E of the Northwestern Bahamas
About 625 MI E of West Palm Beach FL
Max Sustained Winds...115 MPH...
Moving...NW at 10 MPH...
Minimum Pressure...970 MB...

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 mi.

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[polymuser]

Maybe we drop humblegunner into it and let him suck the life out of it?

8

[NautiNurse]

Category 4 Hurricane Dorian

Summary Of 800 PM EDT...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...About 400 MI E of the Northwestern Bahamas
About 575 MI E of West Palm Beach FL
Max Sustained Winds...125 MPH...
Moving...WNW at 10 MPH...
Minimum Pressure...950 MB...

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 mi.

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[Southern Magnolia]

Reading this thread, thank you NN.

Watching this

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/equirectangular=-76.84,26.86,1676/loc=-71.209,25.397

and this

https://spaghettimodels.com/

Got almost everything on our list. Store was out of regular bread (got cinnamon Pepperidge Farm) and saltines (have a half full box). Stay safe, everybody.

[NautiNurse]

...DORIAN EVEN STRONGER...
...NOW PACKING 140 MPH WINDS...

Summary Of 1100 PM EDT...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...About 545 MI E of West Palm Beach FL
About 375 MI E of the Northwestern Bahamas
Max Sustained Winds...140 MPH...
Moving...WNW at 10 MPH...
Minimum Pressure...948 MB...

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 mi.

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[luvie]

Watching an extended stream that is giving lots of good information, AgendaFreeTV.
Steve Lookner is the broadcaster and will probably be on the air on YouTube and Periscope throughout this storm. Steve is a former writer for SNL, Seinfeld, MadTV and other popular shows. He does it alone in his studio with few breaks for food or any other reason and is very conscientious about research and accuracy.

[NautiNurse]

NHC forecast track shifts E for Category 4 Hurricane Dorian

Summary Of 0500 AM EDT...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...About 470 MI E of West Palm Beach FL
About 305 MI E of the Northwestern Bahamas
Max Sustained Winds...140 MPH...
Moving...WNW at 12 MPH...
Minimum Pressure...948 MB...

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 mi.

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[NautiNurse]

...Hurricane Dorian 150 MPH winds aimed at Northwestern Bahamas...

Summary Of 1100 AM EDT...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...About 415 MI E of West Palm Beach FL
About 260 MI E of the Northwestern Bahamas
Max Sustained Winds...150 MPH...
Moving...W at 8 MPH...
Minimum Pressure...945 MB...

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 mi.

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[CincyRichieRich]

Well, my mom in Wilmington, NC is convinced it is coming there...according to 11am stats, 8% chance tues-wed

[ScottfromNJ]

For what it’s worth, the ICON model has shifted landfall to south Florida again somewhere around Pompano Beach, sometime early A.M. Tuesday.

[OrangeHoof]

Wow. It’s now projected just to brush the U.S. as it goes out to sea. How long before Pat Robertson takes credit for that?

The bash-Trump media is truly saddened. It’s not going to reach Mar-a-Lago.

[madison10]

Thank you for the thread.

[NautiNurse]

Category 5 Hurricane Dorian 160 mph
Minimum pressure 927mb
Moving W at 8 MPH

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
* North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center,
and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.

***Atlantic Coastal areas from much of the Florida peninsula to
SE VA are within the forecast cone.***

Stay alert!

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->