Posted on 08/25/2020 5:35:03 AM PDT by NautiNurse
12z GFS has halted the west trend
San Antonio is praying that we get at least some rain out of these little storms. I expect Marco to blow himself out today. Laura is a fast mover that will not be over the Gulf for enough time to get very strong.
... had a girlfriend in college named Laura who was pretty fast also ... and easy ... it was a short relationship.
Bookmarking.
This thread will become very interesting this evening.
models have the next storm, which is a strong wave about to come off Africa, around the virgin islands in about a week with a high to the north pushing it WNW
then another wave/system behind that
Eric Berger used to be a science reporter for the Houston Chronicle and he always seems pretty calm and sober in his weather blog:
https://spacecityweather.com/laura-now-a-strengthening-hurricane-likely-headed-to-upper-texas-coast/
12z CMC, Canadian model, right into Houston bay
Laura is a fast mover that will not be over the Gulf for enough time to get very strong.
*************
I guess very strong is in the eyes of the beholder. Cat 3 which Laura may be when it comes ashore is plenty strong to do major damage.
snip
Laura is predicted to become a major hurricane - Category 3 or stronger
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale - prior to making landfall
somewhere along the southwest Louisiana or upper Texas coasts Wednesday
night or early Thursday morning.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-08-25-hurricane-laura-forecast-texas-louisiana
Very good local resource for the greater Houston area. Thanks for the post.
Joe Bastardi was telling the East Coast to look out around days 10-15. That would be about right from what you just described.
West being the westernmost blue line in the storm tracks?
That takes it right past Dallas...
Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
The original impact map with where they would be strongest was put out April 7 only total number updated in August because of ‘all the who cares storms that had been named’
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1298250553445818368
LOL
That name - wonder how he manged growing up with that name.
That name - wonder how he manged growing up with that name.
Uh oh.... Laura looks to be heading right toward my birthplace and former home. Still have a lot of family and friends there.
Grew up just south of Houston, and lived 8 years in Sulphur, La (Just west of Lake Charles) before moving to Kentucky.
To me, Laura doesn’t look likely to make it to a Cat 3. She’s moving quickly and is not well organized. For sure, she’s moving into an area that looks more favorable. Upper level winds look light. I just doubt she’ll have time to really get her act together. We’ll see.
Nauti? Have you seen any data on sea water surface temps? Usually, when one storm passes just in front of the other, the surface temps drop a little. This can inhibit the strength of the second storm. But, I can’t find any data on temps?
With the track they’re showing now, Sulphur will catch hell with storm surge. Those poor folks nearer to the coast are just now starting to recover from Hurricane Rita.
LOL..doubt it will happen
12zgfs actually takes a part of Laura when it is off the east coast and moves it south towards FL and then west back into the Gulf moving back into TX at 276 hours
Shades of Hurricane IVAN
12z EURO just in takes it landfall just west of the LA/TX border
There is a cool eddy in the path of Laura. However, this was not considered a factor which would inhibit intensity near landfall.
Looks like quite a bit of dry air northeast of Laura that could help weaken her. But, it looks like she’s getting west fast enough to avoid it.
If she makes landfall over Port Arthur, the storm surge into La will go 20-25 miles inland. It’s low, and FLAT there.
It's Calcasieau
Pronounced: KAL - ka - shoo
Location...About 525 MI SE of Lake Charles LA
Max Sustained Winds...75 MPH
Moving...WNW at 16 MPH
Minimum Pressure...990 MB
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