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Effects of Climate Warming Already in Evidence
Lycos Environmental News Service ^ | 03/29/2002

Posted on 04/03/2002 9:57:45 AM PST by cogitator

Effects of Climate Warming Already in Evidence

WASHINGTON, DC, March 29, 2002 (ENS) - Ecosystems around the globe are showing the effects of climate warming. Earlier arrival of migrant birds, earlier appearance of butterflies, earlier spawning in amphibians, earlier flowering of plants - spring has been coming sooner every year since the 1960s, researchers reported Wednesday.

The report from German scientists investigates all regions of the globe. They predict some species will vanish because they cannot expand into new areas when their native climate heats up.

"Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible," write Gian-Reto Walther of the University of Hanover, Germany, and colleagues in this week's issue of the journal "Nature."

After reviewing changes in various animal and plant populations over the past 30 years of warming at the end of the 20th century, the authors found "a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems" from the poles to the equatorial seas.

"There is now ample evidence that these recent climatic changes have affected a broad range of organisms with diverse geographical distributions," Walther and his team report.

"The implications of such large scale, consistent responses to relatively low average rates of climate change are large," the researchers warn, adding that, "the projected warming for the coming decades raises even more concern about its ecological and socio-economic consequences."

The Earth's climate has warmed by about 0.6 degrees Celsius over the past 100 years, the researchers note. Starting around 1976, the rate of global warming more than doubled, changing faster than at any other time during the last 1,000 years.

However, average global climate has far less effect on local ecosystems than do local and regional climate changes.

The reproduction of amphibians and reptiles is disrupted by changes in temperature and humidity. In painted turtles, the ration of male to female offspring is related to the mean July temperature, said Walther, and the production of male offspring could be compromised even by modest temperature increases.

In the polar regions, winter freezes are now occurring later and ending earlier, leading to a 10 percent decrease in snow and ice cover since the late 1960s.

These dramatic local changes are having equally dramatic effects on cold weather species such as penguins, seals and polar bears, the researchers found.

Miniscule Southern Ocean crustaceans called krill, a key food source for higher predators such as penguins and other seabirds, whales, seals, as well as a fishery target, are being influenced by climate change. Walther's team found the warming climate is affecting the reproductive grounds of krill by reducing the area of sea ice formed near the Antarctic Peninsula, which leads to both food web and human economic consequences.

Rapid environmental warming has been reported over the last 30 to 50 years at a number of stations in the Antarctic, particularly in the Antarctic Peninsula region and on sub-Antarctic islands, along with changes in precipitation patterns.

Likewise, tropical oceans have increased in temperature by up to eight degrees Celsius over the past 100 years, the research team has found, triggering widespread coral bleaching.

Climate linked invasions of warm weather species into traditionally colder areas includes the immigration of unwanted neighbors - epidemic diseases. "There is much evidence that a steady rise in annual temperatures has been associated with expanding mosquito borne diseases in the highlands of Asia, East Africa and Latin America," the study says.

Geographical differences are evident for both plants and birds, with delayed rather than earlier onset of spring phases in southeastern Europe, including later bird arrival in the Slovak Republic, and a later start of the growing season in the Balkan region, the team has found.

Later onset of autumn changes were recorded, too, but these shifts are less pronounced and show a more variable pattern. In Europe, for example, the length of the growing season has increased in some areas by up to 3.6 days per decade over the past 50 years.

Overall, Walther's team reports, "trends of range changes show remarkable internal consistency between studies relating to glaciers, plant and insect ranges and shifting isotherms," which are lines of constant temperature.

The study concludes that based on the evidence "only 30 years of warmer temperatures at the end of the 20th century have affected the phenology [timing of seasonal activities] of organisms, the range and distribution of species, and the composition and dynamics of communities."


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Extended News; Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: biodiversity; ecology; enviralists; globalwarminghoax; landgrab; stillcrazyafterall; theseyears; trends; warming
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There have been several studies (including one cited by climate change skeptic Patrick Michaels, principal author of the World Climate Report, that indicate early occurrence of spring. This study seems to confirm that trend and describes the ecosystem consequences.
1 posted on 04/03/2002 9:57:45 AM PST by cogitator
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To: cogitator
Link to the Nature article:

Ecological responses to recent climate change

Abstract: There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.

(It's got 97 references. Holy cow.)

2 posted on 04/03/2002 10:01:59 AM PST by cogitator
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To: cogitator
Bull crap, it's been cold here in Ohio,Ky,Indiana area, NO sign of the nebulous "warming"!
3 posted on 04/03/2002 10:02:24 AM PST by timestax
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To: cogitator
I can buy into global warming. I think its a natural occurance.
4 posted on 04/03/2002 10:04:37 AM PST by Paradox
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To: cogitator
Cool!

Here in Central Ohio, we had a very mild winter.

I love it!

What ever we're doing, Lets do more!!!!

5 posted on 04/03/2002 10:04:58 AM PST by WhiteGuy
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To: cogitator
The Skeptical Environmentalist

Not everyone buys into the enviromentalist groupthink. And those who don't, get vilified.

6 posted on 04/03/2002 10:06:51 AM PST by lds23
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To: cogitator
3 years ago it snowed in Tucson on Easter Sunday. The hottest day ever in Tucson was 12 years ago.

The climate fluctuates, this happens, one year doesn't necessarily predict the next, one area doesn't necessarily reflect another. The only thing we know for sure is that ice ages last longer than temperate times so we should count ourselves lucky.

7 posted on 04/03/2002 10:07:49 AM PST by discostu
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To: discostu
I like it warmer, myself. More things grow. Old guys like me can move around easier.
8 posted on 04/03/2002 10:09:45 AM PST by MoralSense
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To: WhiteGuy
Here in Central Ohio, we had a very mild winter. I love it! What ever we're doing, Lets do more!!!!

In New York too! Its been so mild. Its already 72 degrees. The only thing we need is rain.

9 posted on 04/03/2002 10:14:05 AM PST by areafiftyone
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To: cogitator
I bet these ecoterrorists also insist in evolution. Survival of the fittist. Those species that can cope will continue, those that can't, well..., that's evolution.
10 posted on 04/03/2002 10:15:52 AM PST by Big Mack
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To: areafiftyone
Uh oh!

watch out 51,

Yesterday it was 70

Today it's 39 - and headed your way....

all in all, alot nicer than when I was a kid.

we'll send you some rain!

11 posted on 04/03/2002 10:17:03 AM PST by WhiteGuy
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To: cogitator
Interesting you should mention the World Climate Report:

"This temperature update presents the NASA satellite measurements of monthly temperature anomalies-—the difference between the observed values and the 1979–1998 mean values. Global satellite measurements are made from a series of orbiting platforms that sense the average temperature in various atmospheric layers. Here, we present the lowest level, which matches nearly perfectly with the mean temperatures measured by weather balloons in the layer between 5,000 and 28,000 feet. The satellite measurements are considered accurate to within 0.01 deg C and provide more uniform coverage of the entire globe than surface measurements, which tend to concentrate over land.

"February 2002: The average global temperature departure was 0.206 deg C, with a Northern Hemisphere departure of 0.307 deg C and a Southern Hemisphere departure of 0.106 deg C.

"Below: Monthly satellite temperatures for the Northern Hemisphere (top) and Southern Hemisphere (bottom). Trend lines indicate statistically significant changes only."

Not only is the "increase" in the northern hemisphere much less than the rate predicted by the global-warming doomsters, it is (partially) offset by a distinct cooling of the southern hemisphere. In any event, nothing in this report or anywhere else can demonstrate that any warming trend--or cooling trend--is of human origin.

Much more likely to be of natural origin; e.g., changes in the solar "constant."

But these people are pursuing a hidden agenda, which is socialist and Luddite. They want to cause a precipitous rash of bad decisions based on panic--decisions which would never be adopted if cool reason held sway.

In sum, my response: Get back to us when you have a few millennia of solid, corroborrated data...then we might begin to decide if there's a problem.

--Boris

12 posted on 04/03/2002 10:17:05 AM PST by boris
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To: *Enviralists;*Global Warming Hoax;editor-surveyor
Check the Bump List folders for articles related to and descriptions of the above topic(s) or for other topics of interest.
13 posted on 04/03/2002 10:21:30 AM PST by Free the USA
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To: cogitator
Earlier arrival of migrant birds, earlier appearance of butterflies, earlier spawning in amphibians, earlier flowering of plants - spring has been coming sooner every year since the 1960s, researchers reported Wednesday.

Typical liberal environmental science. It is all anecdotal with no firm statistical analysis

14 posted on 04/03/2002 10:22:08 AM PST by ElkGroveDan
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To: MoralSense
I like it cooler, but of course I live in the desert. Eventually "cooler" traslates to "not as hot" much as "warmer" traslates to "oh God I'm gonna die". Our hottest day was 117 and it hit in June, that whole summer was a nightmare.

But I'll never live in the snow belt. It takes about 5 minutes to recover from heat once you get in air conditioning, compared to the hour or so it takes to warm up again coming in out of the cold (I used to live in Chicago, I know cold).

It has been funny watching the global warming arguement from here though. Since that vicsious spike in 1990 things here have been definitely cooler. We went from snow every 5 years to snow every year (not "real" snow, it never sticks here, just white crap falling from the sky and screwing up traffic for a couple of hours), and the last couple years we've had multiple snow or near snow (melts before hitting the ground but if you work in a tall building you can see it) days. Meanwhile the last few summers have been comparitively mild.

15 posted on 04/03/2002 10:23:47 AM PST by discostu
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To: boris
Thank you Boris.

Those Freepers not used to seeing the raw data from which these "scientists" make their predictions should take a close look at these plots. Do any of you in the lay public see any consitent trend in the data over the last several decades? The "signal to noise ratio" is very high.

Should America be volunteering to gut our economy and send our money to the developing world based on these data?

16 posted on 04/03/2002 10:28:11 AM PST by BigBobber
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To: cogitator
They predict some species will vanish because they cannot expand into new areas when their native climate heats up.

HELLO!?!?!?! Have not 99.9% of all thr species of plant and animal life that have existed on the Planet Earth become extinct before man existed?

17 posted on 04/03/2002 10:28:39 AM PST by finnman69
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To: cogitator
Without knowing more detail about the study, I cannot comment on its accuracy. But I do note that the article says nothing about human causation of warmer global temperatures.

Since we know the earth goes through natural warming and cooling cycles, and that we are currently in an interglacial period when one would expect natural warming, why does global warming carry a more ominous tone than a study confirming that the sun will rise, winter will arrive, and the tides will indeed come in?

18 posted on 04/03/2002 10:31:11 AM PST by Snuffington
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To: cogitator
Ecosystems around the globe are showing the effects of climate warming. Earlier arrival of migrant birds, earlier appearance of butterflies, earlier spawning in amphibians, earlier flowering of plants - spring has been coming sooner every year since the 1960s, researchers reported Wednesday.

Good! Spring is life. Only a moron would want more dead winter.

19 posted on 04/03/2002 10:31:39 AM PST by Rodney King
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To: cogitator
hey al, i've got your global warming hangin'!
20 posted on 04/03/2002 10:33:33 AM PST by rockfish59
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To: cogitator
Change isn't anything new. Climate is forever changing. Warbler ranges in the US were moving northward long before any possible 'global warming' - they were probably still recovering from the little ice age. Species adapt quite handily; it really isn't hard for even a land animal to move north at a rate of a few miles a year, and for a bird it's trivial.

How odd that the left' is wedded to the idea of an unchanging earth, while we conservatives don't have a problem with the idea that climate and ecosystems are constantly in flux.

21 posted on 04/03/2002 10:35:06 AM PST by Right Wing Professor
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To: finnman69
There is also a wobble in the rotational axis of the earth and there is a variation of the rotation of the earth around the sun that is a measurable variable. I think that we don't know nearly enough about the whole system to make any predictions at all. And I detest the canard that man the evil being caused it all.

Prove it. Don't just say it to be so.

22 posted on 04/03/2002 10:35:42 AM PST by Thebaddog
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To: Thebaddog
Its all about envy, power and control. Little actual science.
23 posted on 04/03/2002 10:49:06 AM PST by Eric in the Ozarks
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To: cogitator
What happened to the "coming ice age" that was all the rage in the 70's and early 80's?
24 posted on 04/03/2002 10:50:38 AM PST by Phantom Lord
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To: ElkGroveDan
My tulips were up and gone by this time last year here in MN. Right now there are 7 inches of snow on them. Global warming needs to be looked at over thousands of years, not one. These "scientists" are morons...
25 posted on 04/03/2002 10:59:48 AM PST by RowdyYates
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To: Phantom Lord
Nobody could find a way to blame it on evil humans or greedy Americans, so it lost vogue.
26 posted on 04/03/2002 11:01:37 AM PST by discostu
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To: cogitator
Ask the enviros to prove this is anything other than normal cyclical warming a cooling. The effects may be genuine, but the professed causes are highly speculative and in most cases, self serving.
27 posted on 04/03/2002 11:01:49 AM PST by Bob J
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To: Bob J
And yet the amount of ice in Antartica is growing every year.
28 posted on 04/03/2002 11:06:27 AM PST by swatter
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To: ElkGroveDan
Typical liberal environmental science. It is all anecdotal with no firm statistical analysis.

The Nature article (not the summary article I posted) does have statistical analysis, and cites 97 references that were consulted to write the paper. Furthermore, the early occurrence of spring has been statistically confirmed by Magnuson et al. (spring thaw and autumn freeze data for Northern Hemisphere bodies of water), and by Robeson using temperature data in Illinois (cited in the World Climate Report, Volume 7, No. 14). John Daly's Still Waiting for Greenhouse site has a feature about the Nenana Ice Classic (also written up in this month's issue of Discover magazine) that cites a similar trend. So what the Nature report describes is supported by actual data.

29 posted on 04/03/2002 11:12:05 AM PST by cogitator
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To: swatter
But, but, but Larsen B just broke off! And its the evil Americans fault for not ratifying Kyoto.
30 posted on 04/03/2002 11:12:44 AM PST by Phantom Lord
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To: finnman69
A lot of species have gone extinct, that's for sure.

Based on what I've read, ecosystems can adapt to a maximum rate of temperature change of about 2 C per century. That's about the midrange of good estimates for what will happen next century, even from noted skeptics. The Nature article indicates that ecosystem changes are observable due to the warming which has already occurred in the past 100-150 years, most notably the more rapid warming of the last 30 years. That doesn't mean ecosystems will collapse or that major extinctions will ensue (and there are other causes of extinctions that are probably more extensive and also more preventable, such as deforestation).

31 posted on 04/03/2002 11:15:58 AM PST by cogitator
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To: Snuffington
Without knowing more detail about the study, I cannot comment on its accuracy. But I do note that the article says nothing about human causation of warmer global temperatures.

I don't think the intent of the report was to address human causation. It was to see if the observed warming is causing ecosystem changes. However, the first reference is to the third IPCC report, and the IPCC, of course, attributes some of the warming over the last century to human activities.

Since we know the earth goes through natural warming and cooling cycles, and that we are currently in an interglacial period when one would expect natural warming, why does global warming carry a more ominous tone than a study confirming that the sun will rise, winter will arrive, and the tides will indeed come in?

It's all about the rate of change. See reply 31. I also wrote a longer discussion of this a few weeks back; if interested I can try to see if it still survives. Even some strong skeptics applauded my balanced response in that particular post.

32 posted on 04/03/2002 11:19:55 AM PST by cogitator
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To: timestax
Send some of the cooler weather to Arizona. It has been 15+ degrees above normal!! The normal high is about 79 but we have been having temps. in the 90's. I heard the weather guy say lastnight that we will be near 100 degrees next week!!
33 posted on 04/03/2002 11:20:38 AM PST by hsmomx3
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To: Phantom Lord
What happened to the "coming ice age" that was all the rage in the 70's and early 80's?

The archaic models of that era both overestimated the cooling resulting from sulfur aerosols and the reductions of sulfur aerosols that occurred due to emissions regulations.

34 posted on 04/03/2002 11:21:24 AM PST by cogitator
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To: cogitator
Ecosystems around the globe are showing the effects of climate warming. Earlier arrival of migrant birds, earlier appearance of butterflies, earlier spawning in amphibians, earlier flowering of plants - spring has been coming sooner every year since the 1960s, researchers reported Wednesday.
Hmmmmmm....yet the Europeans Summers of 2001, 2000, 1999, 1998 were much cooler/colder than the norms.

Hmmmmm...yet November - December 2000 set many low temperature records for the nations's Northeast, the Midwest.

Hmmmmm...yet the 'scientists', the 'environmentalists', in the late 1960's to mid 1970's, were advising and warning this nation of the 'coming ice age'.

35 posted on 04/03/2002 11:22:21 AM PST by Stand Watch Listen
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To: cogitator
Rapid warming of the last 30 years? I got news for ya, a great majority of the warming in the 20th century occured PRIOR to 1950. In fact, a small amount of cooling has occured in the last 20 years.

One of my favorite resouces for info on global warming is the Science & Environmental Policy Project

It is headed up by Dr. S. Fred Singer. A man that has repeatedly challenged Algore to debate global warming. Algore refuses. Algore also cancelled an apperance on Larry King Live to discuss global warming when he learned that Dr. Singer was going to be on the show with him. Algore later returned to do the show alone.

Human (read American) caused global warming is a scam.

36 posted on 04/03/2002 11:22:37 AM PST by Phantom Lord
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To: swatter
You might be interested in this:

Deciphering Contradictory Antarctic Climate Patterns

37 posted on 04/03/2002 11:23:30 AM PST by cogitator
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To: hsmomx3
HAH! I was vacationing in Tucson in fall of 1996 when it was REALLY , REALLY, HOT! I spent time on Mt. Lemmon during day, and Sabino Canyon at night, and had a great time!
38 posted on 04/03/2002 11:23:38 AM PST by timestax
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To: cogitator
Is your solution the Kyoto treaty?

39 posted on 04/03/2002 11:24:24 AM PST by William Terrell
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To: boris
Really, I think this course does them little good. One can take a solid position about pollution directly affecting humans, etc., and that would be more tenable.
40 posted on 04/03/2002 11:25:53 AM PST by Shermy
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To: swatter
26 MARCH 1998. EARTH: ROTATION

Earth Alert reports that NASA scientists found (as reported for the 1983 ENSO event) that El Nino slowed the planet's rotation by as much as 0.06 milliseconds on 5 February but the planet is picking up speed and days are now only 0.94 milliseconds longer.--

This has had an awful lot to do with much of the strange weather occurrences. It doesn't seem significant, but reality is that the winds generated by El Nino in 1997 were so strong that it literally redirected the jet stream.
Science is looking, (predicting,) another, equal to, or worse for this year beginning in May.

41 posted on 04/03/2002 11:26:27 AM PST by Syene
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To: Paradox
I think its a natural occurance.

I've been wondering how they'll pin the evacuation of the American Southwest (Chaco Canyon, Mesa Verde, etc) in the 400s on those who live in the 2000s.

I also remember when I was in high school in the 1960s we were taught that we'd just come out of an ice age. The environmental breastbeaters and lawmakers of today must have been the "dumb kids in the back of the room".

42 posted on 04/03/2002 11:26:45 AM PST by GingisK
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To: cogitator
Speaking of models. I remember (cant remember his name at this moment) a NASA scientist who left NASA to pursue global warming issues and develop computer models for such. His models predicted global warming at extrodinary rates and he also became the toast of the enviroleft and global warming cloud. There was one small problem with his models though... THEY DIDN'T INCLUDE THE OCEANS!

His global warming models left 75% of the earth out of the equation!

And further on models, if their ability is to be believed, please explain to us why when they are feed KNOWN data from past years weather they are not able to produce results that are close to what happened?

43 posted on 04/03/2002 11:27:12 AM PST by Phantom Lord
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To: Stand Watch Listen
Climate of 2002: February in Historical Perspective (includes winter 2001-2002)

"Based on data available at the time of this report, the global average land and ocean temperature for boreal winter (December-February) was 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 1880-2001 mean, the second warmest winter season on record."

Confusing, isn't it?

44 posted on 04/03/2002 11:27:34 AM PST by cogitator
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To: cogitator
They predict some species will vanish because they cannot expand into new areas when their native climate heats up.

It's MIGRATE stupid, not EXPAND.

Anyways, does this mean that WARMING IS BAD?

And, if so, does this also mean that COOLING IS GOOD?

Because if both WARMING and COOLING are bad and the only thing we should be happy with is exactly the kind of weather we are having now, than, it will always be bad. There's no way the climate can remain stationary.

45 posted on 04/03/2002 11:30:18 AM PST by A Vast RightWing Conspirator
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To: Phantom Lord
Rapid warming of the last 30 years? I got news for ya, a great majority of the warming in the 20th century occured PRIOR to 1950. In fact, a small amount of cooling has occured in the last 20 years.

You're right about the warming, but I don't see where you get the cooling.

46 posted on 04/03/2002 11:35:31 AM PST by cogitator
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To: cogitator
Here's some "required reading".

These handwringers look to be building on Mann's "hockey stick" graph. Mann's tree ring approach, however, manages to completely miss historic events like the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. (Which is especilly odd when one considers that Mann's sample is limited to the northern hemisphere where these events were particularly pronounced!) It's simply not a valid way to measure global climate.

47 posted on 04/03/2002 11:36:54 AM PST by Redcloak
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To: Phantom Lord
And further on models, if their ability is to be believed, please explain to us why when they are feed KNOWN data from past years weather they are not able to produce results that are close to what happened?

You mean like this?

Forcings and Chaos in Global Climate Change

Read it and see if you think the models can't reproduce the past accurately.

48 posted on 04/03/2002 11:39:07 AM PST by cogitator
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To: Redcloak
These handwringers look to be building on Mann's "hockey stick" graph. Mann's tree ring approach, however, manages to completely miss historic events like the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. (Which is especilly odd when one considers that Mann's sample is limited to the northern hemisphere where these events were particularly pronounced!) It's simply not a valid way to measure global climate.

Update: read this:

Hockey Stick vs. Wet Noodle

It's quite good.

49 posted on 04/03/2002 11:41:29 AM PST by cogitator
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To: cogitator
Dr. James Hansen is the NASA guy whose name I couldnt remember.

And as far as "Warmest on Record" goes, when we have records from different agencies and on different matters dating back 150 years out of 4 Billion, the "warmest on record" is for all intents and purposes worthless.

Hansen has also now declared before the scientific community in a prestigious journal of the National Academy of Sciences that predicting global temperature with climate models is all but impossible (James E. Hansen, Makiko Sato, et al., "Climate Forcings in the Industrial era," Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, vol. 95, pp. 12753-12758, October 1998.)

And the cooling of the last 30 or so years has been measured by satelitte. Ground measures show a slight warming and satelitte show a slight cooling. Which to believe?

And to be clear, i am operating under the guideline that I do NOT believe that humans, especially Americans, are causing the earth to warm. Which is the premise and theory that the envirowacko left is operating under.

50 posted on 04/03/2002 11:46:23 AM PST by Phantom Lord
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