Posted on 04/23/2002 9:34:06 AM PDT by SamAdams76
Well I have heard tale that our ex vice president was referencing last weeks heat wave as an example to get all the global warmingista's fired up. Let me make myself perfectly clear. The argument guys like me have is not as to what is happening, because, frankly I have no idea if this is a trend that will reverses itself in 5 months, 5 years, 50 years or 500 years. I do know that there were once glaciers in Wisconsin, and that there were once Dinosaurs running around there also. Neither time were any men burning fossil fuels. So the only thing we can say is the earth has been both colder and warmer than it is now without cars and the evil empire that our country has become to some. The argument from no nothings such as myself has to do with why we should not put in jeopardy a way of life that has overall led to the greatest leaps for the good of mankind because of our system of freedoms and for the sake of some unproven agenda based on 50 to 100 years of drop in the bucket data, which is all this is compared to the time the earth has had life. I do object to the idea that we should be gas guzzling slobs in this country, but for the same reason that on a personal level I would not turn into someone who eats everything in sight, because it is my own choice. But that is my choice, not yours. Only a society that is turning into one that is using science as a weapon to eliminate choices, would try to limit such things. We see it happening all the time. If someone is blessed or lucky enough to pay for the gas needed to run a gas guzzler, let them. A fool and his money soon part, and besides much of that is taxed out the wazoo. Just as if someone wants to use the 3 basic food groups of milkshakes, fries and greasy hamburgers as their diet, that is their prerogative. If someone once to smoke themselves to death, fine, so long as they do not blame anyone but themselves for the results. As far as Mother Earth goes, it was here a long time before we were, and will be here a long time after. If not for all the advances of this country, which of course some find if fashionable in hind sight to blame for the problems of the world, I would dare say we would not be better off than what we are.
What I find interesting about the whole "environmental" agenda is the attempt by "open minded" people to force something down someone elses throat. The same folks years ago were yelling at the "establishment" for not be tolerant of other views, and now label as a pariah anyone who says maybe a balance between the two viewpoints should be struck. For instance, if a company is in the business of logging and plants 4-7 trees for every one is cut down, how in the long run are they doing any harm? So make no mistake about my position, which does not call for abuse, but wisdom in use. But the twisting of science to fit an agenda is done on both sides, however it seems like the side most apt to twist it on the global warming issues is one that has bigger issues with the things that have made this country great, mainly the EXPANDING of freedoms, not the constricting of them. And if you look closely at the situation involving global warming, you would find many of those same people in favor of agendas that limit freedoms. Whatever happened to the line "Let Freedom Ring?"
I see it here also in this column. You can not believe the amount of vindictive mail I get when I rip the MRF. I point out its problems and what we are looking at behind the scenes and even if it turns out right, its no matter. I simply can not respond to such things, and I dont. If one looked at the MRF at the start of the last 10 day period, and looked at all those numbers, which actually show up on your 15 day forecast that we put out in what was suppose to be an experiment but in my opinion has been taken in the wrong way, there nothing even close to how hot it got and how chilly the response was, until it was obvious.. Yet it was talked about here over a week before, not only in a way that forecasted numbers well above ( though in some places its true not enough) but where the cold was going in response. I got email saying ha ha you were wrong it hit 96 in New York. True enough but what is a better forecast from 5 days out ( the Friday before) near 90 in Morristown or Philadelphia for the height of the heat wave, and from the Monday a week out for the area west of the mountains that had 5 straight days of even higher relative to normal in the eastern lakes, or the mid 70s in the former and the upper 60s in the long range in the latter? And that was based on throwing out the MRF and using the pattern we have been in as far as warmth and reversals. There is not one sight I can find from Minneapolis to Boston where the reversal of daytime highs from the height of the heat to the cold was not at least 40 degrees and many places were close to 50 degrees! But that had nothing to do with MRF means and ensembles, it was based on pattern recognition and actually the confidence given by using the other models which had a very different look, keeping the cold high to the north and bring the wave east at the surface. No model of course is perfect, and this is not saying that is so, but instead what I am saying is the human touch and the discounted of something that has proven itself in extreme situations to be at times as blind as bat gave the better result.
It is not anti-American to say that, as our country is based on truth and freedom, and the truth is that it has showed itself time and time again to be lacking and fortunately society is still such that we have the freedom to say so. Information such as this is like being at a buffet, you are allowed to eat what you want. If there is only one choice, then one has to eat one food. Just because someone says that potatoes are the best thing to eat, doesnt mean you should have to eat them, if their are other choices. So if you don't like what I am serving up, don't eat it. I would much rather have a choice though than having to march lock, stock and barrel like lemmings into the sea.
Which all sets the stage for lies in front, another model debate. The overriding factors for this pattern have not changed, there is a heck of alot of arctic air in Canada and we are watching the slow retrogression in the means of the ridge/trof couplets in the subtropical branch to what may be their summer positions, the ridge from Texas West to the Baja and the trof where the ridge has been reaching high tide, whenever it decides to go wild. Again, that is anecdotal, not proven, but it is something we will be watching for closely overall. In the 10-15 day period, its watching what is going on south of 35 north between the dateline and the west coast that is important, and this mornings added wrinkle, the chance of high latitude blocking developing and coming back. Such events, if played out to the extreme, could lead to another freak occurrence like 1976. For while everyone screams about the heat wave that occurred, the other notable event was the turn to very chilly in May that year in the areas that had the extreme heat. It snowed to cover the ground here in State College on May 10th in a wild snow squall at midday!
This mornings map is showing classicly what is going on as far as the severe weather season. As long as the cold keeps coming, and it looks like it will, we may never see the big outbreak of severe weather until we get late in the season and when it occurs it will be north of where it usually does. Thunderstorms are breaking out over the Ozarks, but they are because of warm advection, the warmer air kicking out the colder air, not because they are in the deep warm sector one looks for the kind of severe weather April and May are famous for. Until the arctic tap can get shut off, this will be of more concern for us rather than the big outbreak of tornadic activity. The strong upper trof that plows through the lakes tomorrow and the northeast on Thursday has another shot of cold air behind it, though for most places the changes wont be as great because of the fact its not getting all that warm in advance. The exception to that may be in the southern plains like Amarillo or Lubbock, which could knock on the door of 90 today, but have a tough time being much above 50 on Thursday. A large area of rain and thunderstorms will develop with that system as it comes out Thursday night and Friday and heads northeast for the Ohio Valley and Lakes for the weekend with another cold high to come in behind that. Becoming of the retrogressive nature of the pattern, the trof is coming out in pieces and so what may happen is what we have just seen, that several pieces come out and the last one phases and forms a deep trof like this one has done now, only the next time it occurs instead of it reaching maximum amplitude over and east of New England like this one, it is further west, between 80 and 90 west. The key again will be watching to see how the western trof backs up and splits in the means in relation to the pattern near Hawaii, as it appears the upper low northwest of Hawaii in the means is about to say hasta la vista. The European shows this best across the Pacific as it takes the ridge/ trof couplets back around 10 degrees over the next 10 days or so, so the support for ridging over the southland continually shifts west. The amount of amplification to the extreme event will depend largely on the amount of blocking that actually forms over northeast Canada. Moral of the story, kiss very warm weather goodbye in the means for two to 3 weeks from the plains to the lakes and probably east and south into the northern mid atlantic states. Conversely it will be very hot with records threatened or broken in this pattern from time to time from south Texas to Florida and perhaps as far north as the Carolinas over the next week or so. The battle ground in between the two warring air masses will be very wet overall, from Northern Texas to the Ohio valley, then northeast to the northeast. Point is, not much change from what we said last week as to where this pattern is and where it is going, and this morning, I am not going to hammer the MRF on what looks to be its usual feedback bias in the west, and its inability to handle the splitting of the trof the right way. Check out the Meteorological Map Discussion for the maps on the differences.
NOTES AND ASIDES:. I have been blessed to know people in my life that, as my years have grown longer, their influences have grown stronger. One of the people I have mentioned here several times, used to work here at Accuweather.com and was a hero of mine as a kid as I used to watch him on TV whenever we returned home to Rhode Island, and that was Norm MacDonald. His influence here at accuweather.com in both forecasting and a role model in the 80s, I can never had repaid him for. Norm passed the Litmus test for greatness, as their words grow stronger and truer with age. From my parents to my wrestling coach at Penn State, to Norm and some of the people I have known here, I have been truly blessed to walk in the company of greatness.
Norm has passed from us now, dying after a long and stubborn fight against a disease that would have taken a lesser person much quicker. Death of loved ones always remind us of our own mortality, and that is part of the the sadness that occurs. However his beacon of greatness will always shine bright to those that knew him. There are many days over the last 10 years I have found myself wishing he was here, if not to work, then to instruct. He did not believe in long range forecasting, but a better pattern recognition man I do not know. Its funny and ironic that one of his biggest fans and admirers, me, is on a mission to prove him wrong, using tools he gave me. I know that someday when my time comes, he will be ready to confront me as to whether I truly showed any skill. I am sure the arguments will start anew, and continue for eternity. I don't think either of us would want it different I learned much from him, but probably could have learned more. If I were to recount examples of his meteorological prowess it would take forever. Suffice it say, the greatest lesson he taught me was a spiritual one, offering a logical explanation for a world gone mad.
There are several people that my kids will never know, but they will hear about. He shall be one of them. And when they are ready, they will hear Norms take on why things are the way they are, simple yet brilliant.
God bless him and keep him.
Ciao for now
I like the way this guy thinks. We must be related, somehow...
What a sentence. I'm not sure, but I think that he said that it's cold in Canada and it's warm in Texas. OK.
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