Posted on 05/05/2002 6:52:36 AM PDT by Seeking the truth
Saturday, May 4, 2002 – Print Edition, Page A1
It's a tale only the best conspiracy theorist could dream up.
Eleven microbiologists mysteriously dead over the span of just five months. Some of them world leaders in developing weapons-grade biological plagues. Others the best in figuring out how to stop millions from dying because of biological weapons. Still others, experts in the theory of bioterrorism.
Throw in a few Russian defectors, a few nervy U.S. biotech companies, a deranged assassin or two, a bit of Elvis, a couple of Satanists, a subtle hint of espionage, a big whack of imagination, and the plot is complete, if a bit reminiscent of James Bond.
The first three died in the space of just over a week in November. Benito Que, 52, was an expert in infectious diseases and cellular biology at the Miami Medical School. Police originally suspected that he had been beaten on Nov. 12 in a carjacking in the medical school's parking lot. Strangely enough, though, his body showed no signs of a beating. Doctors then began to suspect a stroke.
Just four days after Dr. Que fell unconscious came the mysterious disappearance of Don Wiley, 57, one of the foremost microbiologists in the United States. Dr. Wiley, of the Howard Hughes Medical Institute at Harvard University, was an expert on how the immune system responds to viral attacks such as the classic doomsday plagues of HIV, ebola and influenza.
He had just bought tickets to take his son to Graceland the following day. Police found his rental car on a bridge outside Memphis, Tenn. His body was later found in the Mississippi River. Forensic experts said he may have had a dizzy spell and have fallen off the bridge.
Just five days after that, the world-class microbiologist and high-profile Russian defector Valdimir Pasechnik, 64, fell dead. The pathologist who did the autopsy, and who also happened to be associated with Britain's spy agency, concluded he died of a stroke.
Dr. Pasechnik, who defected to the United Kingdom in 1989, played a huge role in Russian biowarfare and helped to figure out how to modify cruise missiles to deliver the agents of mass biological destruction.
The next two deaths came four days apart in December. Robert Schwartz, 57, was stabbed and slashed with what police believe was a sword in his farmhouse in Leesberg, Va. His daughter, who identifies herself as a pagan high priestess, and several of her fellow pagans have been charged.
Dr. Schwartz was an expert in DNA sequencing and pathogenic micro-organisms, who worked at the Center for Innovative Technology in Herndon, Va.
Four days later, Nguyen Van Set, 44, died at work in Geelong, Australia, in a laboratory accident. He entered an airlocked storage lab and died from exposure to nitrogen. Other scientists at the animal diseases facility of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization had just come to fame for discovering a virulent strain of mousepox, which could be modified to affect smallpox.
Then in February, the Russian microbiologist Victor Korshunov, 56, an expert in intestinal bacteria of children around the world, was bashed over the head near his home in Moscow. Five days later the British microbiologist Ian Langford, 40, was found dead in his home near Norwich, England, naked from the waist down and wedged under a chair. He was an expert in environmental risks and disease.
Two weeks later, two prominent microbiologists died in San Francisco. Tanya Holzmayer, 46, a Russian who moved to the U.S. in 1989, focused on the part of the human molecular structure that could be affected best by medicine.
She was killed by fellow microbiologist Guyang (Matthew) Huang, 38, who shot her seven times when she opened the door to a pizza delivery. Then he shot himself.
The final two deaths came one day after the other in March. David Wynn-Williams, 55, a respected astrobiologist with the British Antarctic Survey, who studied the habits of microbes that might survive in outer space, died in a freak road accident near his home in Cambridge, England. He was hit by a car while he was jogging.
The following day, Steven Mostow, 63, known as Dr. Flu for his expertise in treating influenza, and a noted expert in bioterrorism, died when the airplane he was piloting crashed near Denver.
So what does any of it mean?
"Statistically, what are the chances?" wondered a prominent North American microbiologist reached last night at an international meeting of infectious-disease specialists in Chicago.
Janet Shoemaker, director of public and scientific affairs of the American Society for Microbiology in Washington, D.C., pointed out yesterday that there are about 20,000 academic researchers in microbiology in the U.S. Still, not all of these are of the elevated calibre of those recently deceased.
She had a chilling, final thought. When microbiologists die in a lab, there's a way of taking note of the deaths and adding them up. When they die in freakish accidents outside the lab, nobody keeps track.
Suspicious deaths
The sudden and suspicious deaths of 11 of the world's leading microbiologists.
Who they were:
1. Nov. 12, 2001:
Benito Que was said to have been beaten in a Miami parking lot and died later.
2. Nov. 16, 2001:
Don C. Wiley went missing. Was found Dec. 20. Investigators said he got dizzy on a Memphis bridge and fell to his death in a river.
3. Nov. 21, 2001:
Vladimir Pasechnik, former high-level Russian microbiologist who defected in 1989 to the U.K. apparently died from a stroke.
4. Dec. 10, 2001:
Robert M. Schwartz was stabbed to death in Leesberg, Va. Three Satanists have been arrested.
5. Dec. 14, 2001:
Nguyen Van Set died in an airlock filled with nitrogen in his lab in Geelong, Australia.
6. Feb. 9, 2002:
Victor Korshunov had his head bashed in near his home in Moscow.
7. Feb. 14, 2002:
Ian Langford was found partially naked and wedged under a chair in Norwich, England.
8. 9. Feb. 28, 2002:
San Francisco resident Tanya Holzmayer was killed by a microbiologist colleague, Guyang Huang, who shot her as she took delivery of a pizza and then apparently shot himself.
10. March 24, 2002:
David Wynn-Williams died in a road accident near his home in Cambridge, England.
11. March 25, 2002:
Steven Mostow of the Colorado Health Sciences Centre, killed in a plane he was flying near Denver.
A suspicious coincidence.
Now, now.
Nobody knows exactly who killed Gerald and nobody knows exactly why. (Silly "supergun" speculation aside...)
Mark W.
BWAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Good one!:O)
Yup. "Purity" it is called in the "X-Files"...
Second that.
IS THIS TRUE!!!?????
OMG! Things are FAR WORSE than I thought.
Heading for the shower...
I received my MBA back in 1977 and have not physically done the math in quite a few years but I understand the stats, having taken numerous courses at the under, post and doctoral level.
At face value, it warrented a raised eyebrow.
Thanks for putting a number on it.
IMHO
:-)
:-(
Let me see the death rate and causes for other ex-microbiologists.
We do have that information. The actuarial data for life insurance, and more specifically the morbidity data, would tell us whether microbiologists are at a significantly, insurable, higher risk of death than the general population. I cannot find any evidence that this is the case by conducting a web search; someone please point me to the data if there is evidence for the opposite. Note that I take insurability as a sufficient filter for patterns that rise above background noise; you are free to disagree, but then the onus of proving how insurance companies can base a business model around such a statistical model falls upon you.
On 5/5/02 11:02 AM Pacific, The Great Satan said:
The problem is that no adjustment is made for the vast array of equally improbable and retrospectively striking coincidences that could occur in the universe of observables.
The climatic conditions that affect Portland, Maine weather and subsequent chances of hurricane weather developing there are relatively unique to that city. This is not to say that coincidence is possible: that's why we are talking probabilities. Dismissing the prima facie facts on the ground with the statistical equivalent of hand waving by saying "there is a ton of coincidences that could happen in this universe" without listing the possible coincidences and attempting to quantify them, when presented with a quantified estimate, does not bolster a refutation of the estimate.
The source article and a simple web search will give plenty of details of the circumstances surrounding each of the deaths, and provide plenty of data points to fill the "vast array of equally improbable and retrospectively striking coincidences that could occur in the universe of observables". If the observable event space that could affect this situation is as large as you claim, it should be easy to construct the apparent coincidental event space after the deaths have occurred. I'm not saying you are wrong; I'm just asking you to provide a more analytically rigorous rebuttal. I'm more than willing to admit the estimation is incorrect and learn from this; this is how we advance ourselves.
On 5/5/02 11:27 AM Pacific, Nogbad said:
Just goes to show statistics can be used to prove or disprove anything.
Please see my response to The Great Satan above. Again, I'm willing to concede that the estimation is incorrect, if someone provides an equally quantified statistical analysis that refutes the estimation. The mathematical equivalent of blustering and rhetorical platitudes however, are hardly persuasive against objectively constructed analysis.
On 5/5/02 2:19 PM Pacific, Seeking the truth said:
Thanks for putting a number on it.
On 5/5/02 2:19 PM Pacific, Mad_Tom_Rackham said:
Good Job! You've explained it very well.
All credit is due to the original poster and analyst on Slashdot, I'm merely relaying what I read, and defending its applicability until shown data or an objective and equally quantified analysis that indicates otherwise.
You fail to address my point. There might be a hundred cities in the world with similar, low probabilities of being passed by a major hurricane. 0.3% x 100 = 30% annual probability that one will be affected. It would be illogical, after the fact, to be surprised that any particular member of that set had been affected. Now, if you predicted that Portland, Maine, specifically, would be affected this year, and this came to pass, it would be impressive. But retrospectively, it doesn't mean a damn thing, because you get to pick which "coincidences" to get excited about.
With the exception of Al Gore and the Florida Incident,I don't lean towards conspiracies,but this is really odd to me.It's too bad they were all "Experts" in their field and died at this time in our History.Like Robert Plant said:"and it makes me wonder..." I would appreciate a picture of that guy wedged (?) under a chair.You see, that's a little vague, and I'm having trouble envisioning that one.LOL
From your link, two tenths of one percent is about the same probability as a flush in five card stud, or four of a kind in seven card stud, much less likely events.
I'm not sure I buy your .2% conclusion, though. You're assuming these are "all causes, less medical causes". It appears that some or all of these deaths are unusual - beaten in a parking lot, dizzy and fell, stabbed, airlock filled with nitrogen, head bashed in, naked and wedged, homicide/suicide shooting.
Heck, what are the odds that 8 of 11 deaths chosen at random would have this pattern of unusual deaths? Note, we are giving the benefit of the doubt to deaths from stroke, road accident and plane, which ain't necessarily so.
Finally, these deaths may not be directly significant - an attempt to eliminate key microbiologists. These people may have known too much. Alternatively, there could be a campaign to intimidate the rest of them.
. . .whatever is happening here; and do not think it is just synchronicity. . .seems there could be a desire to slow down scientific inquiry and it's results, in a scientific field, that may find many of us left standing in. . .
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