Posted on 05/05/2002 6:52:36 AM PDT by Seeking the truth
Saturday, May 4, 2002 – Print Edition, Page A1
It's a tale only the best conspiracy theorist could dream up.
Eleven microbiologists mysteriously dead over the span of just five months. Some of them world leaders in developing weapons-grade biological plagues. Others the best in figuring out how to stop millions from dying because of biological weapons. Still others, experts in the theory of bioterrorism.
Throw in a few Russian defectors, a few nervy U.S. biotech companies, a deranged assassin or two, a bit of Elvis, a couple of Satanists, a subtle hint of espionage, a big whack of imagination, and the plot is complete, if a bit reminiscent of James Bond.
The first three died in the space of just over a week in November. Benito Que, 52, was an expert in infectious diseases and cellular biology at the Miami Medical School. Police originally suspected that he had been beaten on Nov. 12 in a carjacking in the medical school's parking lot. Strangely enough, though, his body showed no signs of a beating. Doctors then began to suspect a stroke.
Just four days after Dr. Que fell unconscious came the mysterious disappearance of Don Wiley, 57, one of the foremost microbiologists in the United States. Dr. Wiley, of the Howard Hughes Medical Institute at Harvard University, was an expert on how the immune system responds to viral attacks such as the classic doomsday plagues of HIV, ebola and influenza.
He had just bought tickets to take his son to Graceland the following day. Police found his rental car on a bridge outside Memphis, Tenn. His body was later found in the Mississippi River. Forensic experts said he may have had a dizzy spell and have fallen off the bridge.
Just five days after that, the world-class microbiologist and high-profile Russian defector Valdimir Pasechnik, 64, fell dead. The pathologist who did the autopsy, and who also happened to be associated with Britain's spy agency, concluded he died of a stroke.
Dr. Pasechnik, who defected to the United Kingdom in 1989, played a huge role in Russian biowarfare and helped to figure out how to modify cruise missiles to deliver the agents of mass biological destruction.
The next two deaths came four days apart in December. Robert Schwartz, 57, was stabbed and slashed with what police believe was a sword in his farmhouse in Leesberg, Va. His daughter, who identifies herself as a pagan high priestess, and several of her fellow pagans have been charged.
Dr. Schwartz was an expert in DNA sequencing and pathogenic micro-organisms, who worked at the Center for Innovative Technology in Herndon, Va.
Four days later, Nguyen Van Set, 44, died at work in Geelong, Australia, in a laboratory accident. He entered an airlocked storage lab and died from exposure to nitrogen. Other scientists at the animal diseases facility of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization had just come to fame for discovering a virulent strain of mousepox, which could be modified to affect smallpox.
Then in February, the Russian microbiologist Victor Korshunov, 56, an expert in intestinal bacteria of children around the world, was bashed over the head near his home in Moscow. Five days later the British microbiologist Ian Langford, 40, was found dead in his home near Norwich, England, naked from the waist down and wedged under a chair. He was an expert in environmental risks and disease.
Two weeks later, two prominent microbiologists died in San Francisco. Tanya Holzmayer, 46, a Russian who moved to the U.S. in 1989, focused on the part of the human molecular structure that could be affected best by medicine.
She was killed by fellow microbiologist Guyang (Matthew) Huang, 38, who shot her seven times when she opened the door to a pizza delivery. Then he shot himself.
The final two deaths came one day after the other in March. David Wynn-Williams, 55, a respected astrobiologist with the British Antarctic Survey, who studied the habits of microbes that might survive in outer space, died in a freak road accident near his home in Cambridge, England. He was hit by a car while he was jogging.
The following day, Steven Mostow, 63, known as Dr. Flu for his expertise in treating influenza, and a noted expert in bioterrorism, died when the airplane he was piloting crashed near Denver.
So what does any of it mean?
"Statistically, what are the chances?" wondered a prominent North American microbiologist reached last night at an international meeting of infectious-disease specialists in Chicago.
Janet Shoemaker, director of public and scientific affairs of the American Society for Microbiology in Washington, D.C., pointed out yesterday that there are about 20,000 academic researchers in microbiology in the U.S. Still, not all of these are of the elevated calibre of those recently deceased.
She had a chilling, final thought. When microbiologists die in a lab, there's a way of taking note of the deaths and adding them up. When they die in freakish accidents outside the lab, nobody keeps track.
Suspicious deaths
The sudden and suspicious deaths of 11 of the world's leading microbiologists.
Who they were:
1. Nov. 12, 2001:
Benito Que was said to have been beaten in a Miami parking lot and died later.
2. Nov. 16, 2001:
Don C. Wiley went missing. Was found Dec. 20. Investigators said he got dizzy on a Memphis bridge and fell to his death in a river.
3. Nov. 21, 2001:
Vladimir Pasechnik, former high-level Russian microbiologist who defected in 1989 to the U.K. apparently died from a stroke.
4. Dec. 10, 2001:
Robert M. Schwartz was stabbed to death in Leesberg, Va. Three Satanists have been arrested.
5. Dec. 14, 2001:
Nguyen Van Set died in an airlock filled with nitrogen in his lab in Geelong, Australia.
6. Feb. 9, 2002:
Victor Korshunov had his head bashed in near his home in Moscow.
7. Feb. 14, 2002:
Ian Langford was found partially naked and wedged under a chair in Norwich, England.
8. 9. Feb. 28, 2002:
San Francisco resident Tanya Holzmayer was killed by a microbiologist colleague, Guyang Huang, who shot her as she took delivery of a pizza and then apparently shot himself.
10. March 24, 2002:
David Wynn-Williams died in a road accident near his home in Cambridge, England.
11. March 25, 2002:
Steven Mostow of the Colorado Health Sciences Centre, killed in a plane he was flying near Denver.
You have lost me here. I interpreted the analysis to say that the 0.2% expresses the probability across the set of all U.S. microbiologists that 11 would die of unnatural causes within a span of 4.5 months, not the set of unity for one microbiologist to die from an unnatural cause within a span of 4.5 months, which could then be multiplied by the population of all microbiologists. What steps did you take in your interpretation of the analysis' scope?
I stand corrected, thanks for pointing that out.
The set of microbiologists is only one of a virtually infinite number of sets of similar size for which one could dream up some tenuous, hypothetical link to a worldwide terrorist plot. The set itself has been "cherry-picked" after the fact. Not only that, but the precise borders of the set have been tailored and defined to make the coincidence appear bigger than it really is. For example, was the most prominent scientist in this set, Don Wiley, really a microbiologist? Only in a very loose sense -- he would normally be considered a structural biologist. If the real, untailored set is "biologists" rather than "microbiologists," we might easily be talking about a pool of 200,000 people instead of 20,000 people, in which case the "coincidence" would disappear into the background. This is how we make mountains out of molehills, statistically speaking.
I think I see your objection. Because the cohort is not truly randomly selected, it cannot be correlated against the random distribution of unnatural death rate in the general population, is that correct?
Actually, there is a simpler flaw in the analysis that no one has detected yet: there are only six people mentioned who were U.S. citizens: Que*, Wiley*, Schwartz, Holzmayer, Huang, Mostow. Out of these, only the starred names were members of the American Society for Microbiology. Without some more digging that I don't have the time for, I cannot tell if the others were active participants in microbiology research.
For example, was the most prominent scientist in this set, Don Wiley, really a microbiologist?
He certainly possessed enough interest in the field to register as a member of the American Society for Microbiology. He was a structural biologist, but very active in in applying crystallography and his other structural biology work towards virological and immunological research as far as I can tell.
I must concede that without a more rigorous background in statistical theory, I cannot tell whether applying an outcome given a random distribution population to a relatively randomly selected group out of the population affects the validity, and so from a science standpoint I must say that I cannot commit to either view (yours included) without more information. I think that you are saying without the morbidity rates for microbiologists (or just biologists), we cannot tell if the recent events rise above the noise level of the morbidity rate for that specific group.
Based upon what I know about the insurance business, I don't think that is necessary; my insurance agent confirmed to me that Farmer's doesn't write different life insurance policies for microbiologists (or biologists) than the general office worker. Given that, my hunch is that any grouping whose morbidity rates do not rise above that of the general distribution is just as valid a set as the general population set. Confirmation from a commercial application of morbidity rates is somewhat persuasive however, absent any government regulation that prohibits underwriting based upon profession (which I am not aware exists).
In the most restrictive sense, if only Que and Wiley were counted, then I would say that this falls under the standard morbidity rate. The flaw with this view is that we don't even agree if they were microbiologists. Perhaps if we counted all people who would be active researchers that could assist a biowarfare effort (offensive or defensive), we can get away from the (probably media-mangled) "microbiologist" label. However, I suppose both of us probably don't have enough information to really tell for sure either way whether these deaths are significant. Maybe we should agree to disagree?
I'll never give Satan the last word.;-)
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