Look at Key Senate 2002 Races

(AP) ^

[Dallas]

A look at 10 states that could be critical in deciding whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate after the 2002 elections.

TOP DEMOCRATIC TARGETS

ARKANSAS: Incumbent Republican Sen. Tim Hutchinson against Democrat Mark Pryor, state attorney general. Both sides think this race could be very close -- partly because of the strong Democratic presence in the state.

COLORADO: Incumbent Republican Sen. Wayne Allard faces Democrat Tom Strickland, a former U.S. attorney, in a rematch of their close 1996 Senate race.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Incumbent Republican Sen. Bob Smith is considered vulnerable and faces Rep. John Sununu in the GOP primary. Democrats hope the GOP primary will leave that party's nominee in poor shape to face Democratic candidate Jeanne Shaheen, currently governor.

TEXAS: Open seat now held by retiring GOP Sen. Phil Gramm. Democrat Ron Kirk, former mayor of Dallas, has been running even in the polls with the Republican nominee, Attorney General John Cornyn. Kirk's bid to become a black senator from a conservative Southern state should bring him plenty of party contributions and plenty of attention.

NORTH CAROLINA: Open seat currently held by retiring GOP incumbent Jesse Helms. Elizabeth Dole, a former transportation secretary, is the favorite for the GOP nomination and Erskine Bowles, a former Clinton chief of staff, has the edge for the Democrats. But the primary has been delayed indefinitely by legal battles over redistricting.

Democrats also are eyeing GOP Sen. Gordon Smith in OREGON and think they could have a chance for open seats in SOUTH CAROLINA and TENNESSEE.

TOP GOP TARGETS

IOWA: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin faces GOP Rep. Greg Ganske. Harkin has a double-digit lead, but could be vulnerable if Ganske cuts into his base in more urban areas.

MINNESOTA: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone faces Republican nominee Norm Coleman, former mayor of St. Paul who has run for governor. Both sides expect this race to be very close.

MISSOURI: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jean Carnahan faces Republican nominee Jim Talent, a former member of Congress who narrowly lost the governor's race in 2000. Both sides expect this race to be very close.

SOUTH DAKOTA: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson faces GOP Rep. John Thune. Both sides expect this race to be very close.

GEORGIA: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Max Cleland could get a strong challenge from the eventual GOP nominee. Rep. Saxby Chambliss will face state lawmaker Bob Irvin in an Aug. 20 primary.

Republicans also are eyeing Democratic Sen. Robert Torricelli in NEW JERSEY and think they have the upper hand in all four open seats currently held by the GOP.

Copyright © 2002, The Associated Press

[Paul Ross]

Sorry to burst your bubble. NH can only be kept if Sununu withdraws (the only honorable thing to do) and we are going to lose Minnesota to Wellstone again. Coleman just doesn't have any idea how to engage and defeat a liberal such as Wellstone....because he really is one himself.

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

Salier does not want to yank SS away from anyone.

Besides that, you're assuming, it's hopeless to change the hearts and minds of people.

I reject that idea and I think Bill has proven it.

He had Democrats who heard him, giving him contributions.

If expecting this country to abide by the constitution and expecting those who take oaths to abide by those oaths, is too conservative, God help this country.

[RFP]

..and a look at what is to become the key upset for 2002:

WEST VIRGINIA POLITICAL LINKS:

• Freeper Wins Republican Primary for U.S. Senate
  
• Jay Wolfe campaign website
  
• FReeper Candidate JAY WOLFE Has Great Meetings in Washington, DC
  
• After Action Report: FReeped Rockefeller GOOD !
  
• Emergency FReep - Rockefeller & Byrd, RE: Jay Wolfe(R) 4 Senate
  
• Senator Jay Wolfe Endorsed by Charleston Daily Mail (& Poll to FReep)
  
• email from SENATOR Jay Wolfe
  
• Help JAY WOLFE defeat Rockefeller for US Senate
  
• Jay Wolfe Grassroots Campaign to Defeat Rockefeller
  
• Jay Vs. Jay: Wolfe to Challenge Rockefeller for US Senate in '02

[RFP]

This man is phenomenol. Spent about $200,000 and got 41% of the vote. He was a total unknown.

In West Virginia, Republican candidate Hiram Lewis (30 yr old former Army Ranger, attorney, CPA) spent, I'm guessing, $2,000, and garnered 38% of the U.S. Senate primary vote. He was less known than former state senator Jay Wolfe, but Jay didn't campaign much for the primary as he was focusing on fund-raising for the inevitable fall match-up with Rockef***er.

Do you see the similarities between Sailer and Ganske? Don't get me wrong - I'm glad that Jay Wolfe (Freeper #60,000) won, but just wanted to put things in perspective.

Hiram will be back for some future office. Sailer will be back as well. You can bet on it!

[Mike Fieschko]

Remember in 1970, just two years into Nixon's first term, with an unpopular war and unemployment on the rise, GOP actually gained two Senate seats.

Senator's terms are six years, so six years before 1970 was 1964. Were the two lost 1970 Senate seats guys who were first elected in 1964?

I leafletted for the GOP Presidential candidate in 1964. It wasn't pretty on election night.

[mwl1]

I live in Minnesota and Coleman is going to win. He is already leading in the polls. People are sick of Wellstone and his socialist crap. It ain't playing post 9/11.

[mwl1]

I said that GOP gained Senate seats in 1970.

[Mike Fieschko]

I said that GOP gained Senate seats in 1970.

Sorry, I phrased the question awkwardly.

The Senate Dems who lost in 1970: were any first elected in 1964, when Goldwater lost in a landslide?

[Ohioan]

The fact that Salier did so well against a far better known opponent, with an established ballot name, who had a lot more to spend, pretty well nails it down that he would have been the stronger candidate. To come from nowhere that far bespeaks natural ability as a campaigner. Add to that, that he appears to be a man of principle, and it is very sad that he did not make it.

The problem, judging from what I have read, is the pathetic Karl Rove, who may have the President's ear, but seems to totally misunderstand what motivates people who are not otherwise political. The President will retain him at a terrible peril to Republican interests.

William Flax Return Of The Gods Web Site

[GraniteStateConservative]

I think Salier should work hard county by county trying to get people to reject the economic populism of Harkin. Recent history shows that Iowans won't be swayed easy. I wish him luck.

[crystalk]

Thirty or so posts including the original list, and not one single mention of Louisiana and the Big Easy.

Surely that race deserves to be noticed.

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

That's what he's doing, one person at a time. I said all along that if he didn't win it was because he didn't have enough time to get to enough people.

I can guarantee you that everywhere he goes, he gets converts. These are permanent converts, it is not superficial.

Interesting that the day after the election, that was Bill's quote in the paper--he just didn't get to enough people.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Not unless Suzy Terrell enters the race. Otherwise Landrieu will win in November without a run-off.

[HighWheeler]

Here is a table of all the 2002 Senate elections with other background information. The green races are the best hopes for the GOP, the yellow are the best hope for the Dims.

How South Dakota can support Bush with a 23% margin over Algore and still vote in two Dim Senators is frustrating.

The 2002 Senate Elections - 34 Elections Tabulated

[mwl1]

I don't remember all the particulars; there were fewer incumbents of both parties automatically re-elected in those days. One of the senators who lost re-election in 1970 was Albert Gore Sr. of Tennessee. Conversely, conservative George Murphy of California was defeated by that one-term liberal idiot and best friend of Ted Kennedy, John Tunney.

Evidence of GOP gains following the Goldwater debacle was more evident in 1966, when the GOP gained 47 House seats.

[Paul Ross]

Hey, I wish you were right. But from my work in Minnesota, I perhaps see a different slice of the demographic. And its not looking encouraging.

[Quila]

Much of what you said about Sununu is why I like him. Mainly, he doesn't toe the party line. I know he is definitely not the nicest of people (actually, he's pretty nasty), but he does have a habit of breaking through the BS and getting the job done. Contrast this with almost any Senator, and you see we could use the shakeup. And I'm also amenable to almost anything that will kick out an encumbent.

What's a Bush Bot?

[Quila]

John Sununu (father) was in Bush 41 administration.his son a congressman is running against Bob Smith in the primary for the senate seat.I hope this clears things up a bit.

So much for that part of the thread. I don't know anything about him. Thanks.