Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: JamesWilson
Please look at the dollar index and juxtapost that with what you know (good opinion and fine thinking, imo).

It, the dollar decline, seems paramount to me. While a decline in the dollar doesn't have to mean no growth it will probably increase the rate at which foreign investors leave this market. And that is what matters right now and months from now.
14 posted on 06/20/2002 6:15:32 AM PDT by d4now
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies ]


To: d4now
Please look at the dollar index and juxtapost that with what you know.

You just made the best point on this thread, d4now. Everything I wrote depends in large measure on a strong Dollar. In the past 2 months the Dollar has weakened substantially. Falsely. The Dollar was slightly overvalued based on current economics (largely undervalued based on economic growth similar to that about which I wrote earlier). Currently, the Dollar is grossly undervalued globally (except places like Argentina).

Why? Just as you wrote, foreign investors are repatriating Euros, Yens, Dogsh*ts, whatever, because they feel that the U.S. is a great Terroristic target. Whatever. Anyway, the most reliable intel is that Al Queda sent it's idiot bombers back to the places from which they came to carry out bombings. In other words, Europe! Europe is now the prime terroristic target. As soon as the idiot bombers take out Big Ben, a cafe on the C.E. in Paris or Europa Centre in Berlin, Euro's will gush to $$$$!

Why? The U.S. has been the prime "flight to quality" location in world histroy. Any recent proof? Yup! Just today, the news was a larger U.S. trade deficit. A trade Def. is accounted for by an influx of foreign currency. In other words, we have a short-term tug-a-war bewteen currencies, but long-term fundamentals in favor of a strengthening $. The U.S. will have a great stock market if it wins it's war on terror. You heard it here first: The U.S. will win the war on terror if it's in Bagdad by November 1, 2002. But that is another story ....

15 posted on 06/20/2002 10:04:14 PM PDT by JamesWilson
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson