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Economists see 'negative' bubble
Boston Globe ^ | 6/27/2002 | Boston Globe Staff

Posted on 06/28/2002 3:55:08 AM PDT by TightSqueeze

Edited on 04/13/2004 2:07:55 AM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]

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To: TightSqueeze
"...Investors are pretty confident in the government's ability to enact effective regulations."

This rat Shiller certainly comes by his name honestly.

As for the rest, they seem a little too confident that we're looking for the 'capitulation' near-term. Frankly, I doubt that we've even endured one half of the 'revaluation' yet.

Go gold.


41 posted on 06/28/2002 7:33:39 AM PDT by headsonpikes
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To: bvw
Assuming that corporation isn't involved in yield burning.
42 posted on 06/28/2002 7:40:49 AM PDT by Wm Bach
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To: lewislynn
You live in a dream world of denial if you think socialism is advanced by only Democrats.

I don't live in a dream world, I live in the same one you do- I see it differently and I'm not going to call you any names or make any insinuations because we see it differently.

And I don't believe that dems are the only ones promoting socialism- but they're mainly responsible for it. We have to work with what we've got. We either chose Bush or Gore. Which is gonna be? You pick the lesser evil is what you do. Right now, I want to work on sentencing the dems to electoral hell. When their population has been fumigated down to a number where we don't have to pay as much attention to them, then we can work on getting a good opposition candidate to go against the GOP. But the last thing we want now is to pull another Ross Perot on ourselves. That let in Clinton and it's going to take a long time to undo the havoc that wreaked.

I don't support all of Bush's policies, but because we have the bitter past as a grim reminder, I support him on the whole out of expediency and because I have my wish list prioritized. First get the commies out and by this I mean the Progressive Caucus. We got out Earl Hilliard in Alabama, Cynthia McKinney should be next. When we weed the true reds out then we can start in on the rest of the dems. When we control enough electoral votes comfortably, then we clean up our own act.

Also, the corporate donations you speak of. First, they give money to buy a vote, they don't give a damn which party it is. It's pay-off money. But if the gov't would keep its nose out of the market place in the first place and not dabble with protectionism and these corporations were forced to compete on their own merit all the bribes in the world wouldn't do them any good. Secondly, you look down the list of donations for the Progressive Caucus. Unions, Arabs, and More Unions. That has to say something as well.

43 posted on 06/28/2002 7:46:22 AM PDT by Prodigal Son
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To: TightSqueeze
Those wishing to prepare themselves for this shrinkage, consider very seriously paying down debt. I've lowered my contributions to my 401K so that I can take the "extra" an pay against my credit cards and home loan.

When paying off debt, first pay off the highest interest, working your way down. This will help free up more money - a little at first, but more later. Since this down turn will last a while, paying down debt will often provide a better return that you could get in the market.

For example, assume you have as 12% loan but can only make 4% in the market. Paying off the loan makes more sense because it will save you money in the long run.

It will also enable you to be in a better cash flow position to take advantage of a recovery. Just my .02

44 posted on 06/28/2002 8:07:24 AM PDT by taxcontrol
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To: Dukie; rohry
Thanks for the ping.

Perhaps not coincidentally, and consistent with the piece, Bob Prechter recently spoke at a conference on market psychology sponsored by the Harvard medical school.
45 posted on 06/28/2002 8:14:26 AM PDT by Tauzero
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To: TightSqueeze
Schumpeterian creative destruction...it will be interesting to see what our economy will shape up to resemble when all these maniacs are sifted out.
46 posted on 06/28/2002 8:17:33 AM PDT by Benrand
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To: bvw
Hear! Hear! Well said! The Misis institute printed a great paper called "Great myths of the Great Depression". I highly recommend it to anyone reading this. Just Google "Great Myths of the Great Depression".
47 posted on 06/28/2002 8:21:28 AM PDT by Billy_bob_bob
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To: taxcontrol
You are doing the right thing. Get out of debt as quickly as you can. Debt free is the way to be in a deflationary economy. I notice how some people keep crowing about "low inflation". Yeah, well deflation is as low as inflation gets, and deflation will make you long for the good old days of inflation once it gets going. So yes, get out of debt ASAP, definitly a good thing to do.
48 posted on 06/28/2002 8:26:37 AM PDT by Billy_bob_bob
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Comment #49 Removed by Moderator

To: Billy_bob_bob
Here's a link to the Ludwig von Mises Institute.

And here's a link to another article: The Trouble with Economics Texts , by William L. Anderson. Some exceprts ...

For example, a new text by Bradley R. Schiller gives lip service to the role of prices in the market. But it does not take long for him to point out that market mechanisms often result in failure. In his view, "The goal of every society is to attain the best possible (optimal) economic outcomes-the most desirable mix of output, the most efficient production methods, and a fair distribution of income." Just what is this "most desirable mix" that society seeks? Schiller does not say. Apparently, everyone already knows the solution, but those money-grubbing capitalists just won't do what society wants them to do.

Look at how Schiller treats classical economics in general and Say's Law in particular. Schiller begins by declaring that prior to the 1930s, "macroeconomists thought there could never be a Great Depression." He goes on to say that classical theory denied the possibility of lengthy periods of unemployment and unsold inventories. Say's Law was simply the economists' version of "Field of Dreams": If you produce it, you will sell it.

That a man with a PhD in economics would make such a statement in the face of historical facts is breathtaking. First, by 1930, classical economics was dead, having been laid to rest by neoclassical economists such as Carl Menger, William Stanley Jevons, and (to a lesser degree) Alfred Marshall. David Ricardo and John Stuart Mill's writings, especially when it came to understanding the nature of value, had already been bypassed. As for Say's Law, J.B. Say himself, in writing his famous chapter XV (book I) in his Treatise on Political Economy, began by describing conditions of what today we would call a recession.

In other words, the "classical" economists and their successors had all lived through various downsides of the business cycle. To say that they denied the possibility of economic depression after having lived through a number of them is ludicrous.

Furthermore, the Great Depression actually vindicated much of the theory known as classical economics. Their point was that in the absence of constraints on wages and prices, the economy would ultimately find a balance. As Murray N. Rothbard has shown us in his classic America's Great Depression, the US government under Herbert Hoover did everything in its power to prevent wage and price flexibility.

All of this is lost on Schiller, who simply apes John Maynard Keynes and his unfortunate "classic" The General Theory on Employment, Interest, and Money. What he gives us is not an explanation of economic theory, but rather a hodgepodge of myths, fallacies, and ex cathedra statements trying to pass as economics.


50 posted on 06/28/2002 8:44:10 AM PDT by bvw
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To: bvw
Yours is an excellent post. Bump.
51 posted on 06/28/2002 12:49:00 PM PDT by headsonpikes
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To: TightSqueeze
A negative bubble, --if there can be such a thing without using imaginary numbers,-- should it burst, would make everyone astoundingly rich overnight.
52 posted on 06/28/2002 12:51:33 PM PDT by RightWhale
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To: lewislynn
BTW, those corporations you're speaking of/for also give a lot of money to Democrats...how about you explain to them how "Socialism bleeds an economy".

Dirty little secret: big corporations love big government regulations because they put smaller companies out of business, thus increasing the surviving companies' market share. Were it not for government-imposed barriers to smaller businesses' entry, many large businesses would have to make themselves more efficient or go out of business. By keeping new competitors from entering the market, the government saves large businesses from the needs to improve; such inefficiencies sap the economy everywhere else.

53 posted on 06/28/2002 6:00:18 PM PDT by supercat
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To: Dukie
Thanks, been in the field drilling a dry hole.
54 posted on 07/05/2002 6:46:49 PM PDT by razorback-bert
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