So far, the GOP is not giving conservatives reasons to vote on November 5th

Enter Stage Right ^ | July 15, 2002 | Paul M. Weyrich

[gordgekko]

Maybe I am totally off base, and probably I should keep my views to myself, but I sense a Democratic victory in Congress in the making. It is true that President George W. Bush still has sky high ratings among the electorate. They see him as someone who thinks like they do. No matter what issues the Democrats throw at the President, nothing sticks to him. They used to call Ronald Reagan the Teflon President, but if Bush continues these ratings into 2004, he will do Reagan one better.

The Bush ratings do not apply to his party, however. In fact, several recent polls find that while the average voter believes that Bush is on the side of the average voter, Republicans in general are seen as being more interested in the welfare of corporate bigwigs. If Democrat strategists are able to take advantage of this voter perception they will hold on to the Senate, but will win control of the House as well. Republican strategists already concede gains in the gubernatorial realm. They are defending many more state houses than the Democrats.

One of the problems for Republicans in Congress is that grass roots conservatives don't feel that the party is willing to raise issues they care about. The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals' decision removing God from the pledge of allegiance and a New York federal judge's decision to release a terrorist are good arguments for confirming President Bush judicial nominees. It is unclear if the party is willing to make this a burning issue because the judge who wrote the pledge opinion was a Republican appointee. If the judiciary becomes a really credible issue, it does have the opportunity to arouse some voters.

One issue that would really stir the grass roots is immigration. Look at what has happened in Western Europe. Eleven of 14 Members of the European Economic Community now have right of center governments. And it is possible that total will be 12 this fall if German voters go the way the polls are now suggesting. Immigration was one of the key issues that brought those right of center governments to power. Even the Dutch government intends to curb the liberal lifestyle in that country. The problem is that President Bush has a fundamental disagreement with Representative Tom Tancredo (R-CO) whose views on immigration resonate well with the grass roots. So immigration will not be made an issue by the Republican Party or if it is it will be in the form of President Bush's outreach to the Hispanic community.

Another issue that stirs the grass roots is the Boy Scout issue. The Boy Scouts have lost millions and have also lost the right to use many public facilities because they refuse to permit homosexual scout masters. The grass roots are all with the Scouts. The party could win seats in the South, Midwest and even Southwest if the party made this an issue. But it is unlikely the party will raise this issue because the Bush Administration has made an outreach to the homosexual community. Just recently, the president signed a bill providing some benefits to same sex partners who were victims of the New York disaster on September 11th.

The Supreme Court's decision on vouchers thrilled most conservatives. This decision is very popular in minority communities where school children are trapped in failing education institutions. However vouchers are not popular in suburban communities. The issue has been defeated in Congress by suburban Republicans. Voters from the suburbs have defeated vouchers when they were on state ballots. So while the party might make this an issue and grass roots conservatives would like it, the suburban Republicans who are part of the Bush coalition might well revolt.

The voters and even some in the grass roots have turned on to the privacy issues. A year ago, in the wake of 9/11, they were willing to support intrusions into their privacy in the interest of safety. Attorney General John Ashcroft was once the darling of grass roots conservatives. He is now seen as the enemy of the Fourth Amendment and impatience with Big Brother security measures grows, especially among grass roots activists. But privacy will not be an issue with the voters at-large this fall.

That is why it is possible that the Democrats will make gains. The Republicans may not raise any issues that will get grass roots conservatives to the polls. In 1994 these conservatives constituted 37 percent of the vote. In 2000, they constituted only 31 percent of the vote. If they drop another percentage or two, Republicans will lose, and could lose big.

We shall see if Democrats are smart enough to turn voter perception about the Republican-Big Business connection into an issue that resonates with the average voter. Thus far they have proved remarkably inept in their efforts to develop issues against President Bush. It could be they will miss what for them is a golden opportunity. However, if they get their act together, President Bush will be dealing with a Democrat Congress for the two years before he has to face the voters. If what has happened in the Senate this past year is any guide, the president will get nothing conservative through the Congress. He will only win if he compromises with the liberals. Then the Democrats will say he is a do nothing president.

Paul M. Weyrich is president of the Free Congress Foundation.

[College Repub]

As if preventing democrats from making a gain is not reason enough?

[wimpycat]

Maybe I am totally off base, and probably I should keep my views to myself, but I sense a Democratic victory in Congress in the making.

Yes, you are, yes, you should, and your senses are off-kilter.

[tndarlin]

And please tell me a reason to vote FOR a Democrat?? I keep hearing about how the Republicans are not doing enough...but what in the world are the issues Democrats promoting?

Do they even have a platform other than taking our money and talking down the economy?

[Doctor Stochastic]

Note to Weyrich: It's still the economy.

[SamBees]

Correct. The GOP is in "Big Tent" mode. It is trying to cater to all ethnic and cultural sub groups. Conservatives offend some of those sub groups so they have to be avoided.

Of course, this Bigt Tent concept has never been tried before now, and it is an absolutely huge risk for the GOP. Our party leaders are banking on capturing the hearts and minds of democrats to the degree that they will change parties and vote for the Republicans.

Oh, Conservatives....you have no other place to go....That is what the GOP thinks of us. Thye know we won't vote for a stinking demorat, so its okay to ignore the serious conservatives.

[Darth Sidious]

There is no reason to vote for the Democrats.

Nor is there really a reason to vote for the Republicans, either.

Most Americans know this. Hence the "voter apathy" that both major parties whine about.

[SlickWillard]

It's still the economy.

True, but don't underestimate the profound dismay with which the grassroots views Dubyah. An awful lot of us have given up on him, and the GOP.

[justshutupandtakeit]

You are speaking of the dumbest of the dumb here. There is never a reason for them to vote only bitch and whine and we have some grand champions on site.

[Lexington Green]

The lesser-of-two-evils... the Repubs have the conservatives over a barrel - so get out your Vaseline and enjoy it....

Evil sucks - lesser or greater...

[Blood of Tyrants]

Socialism and socialism-lite. What's the difference? Look at the Patriot Act and the Homeland Security act and the budget and CFR and the Farm Bill. The Republicans signed on to everyone of these in droves. What was even remotely conservative about any of these?

[moodyskeptic]

I believe that the Republicans are ignoring the Big Picture: the culture war. The current struggle is a battle for the minds of the masses, and the pubs are notoriously inept at this. Reagans smart bet was in hiring top Madison Avenue guys, men who sold stuff to Americans for a living. They created ads and materials that sold the conservative agenda. This is just smart strategy. The Dems are expert at spinning, prodding the media and using MTV style connections to push the liberal mindset. It works.

Rush, Ann Coulter and some other voices are punching through the liberal clutter, but the RNC has got to join the fight. GWB has to stay above the fray with his new tone and all, but the RNC should be in attack mode. If I have to watch the Republican agenda self destruct under current favorable circumstances, I will go batty.

[rdb3]

So far, the GOP is not giving conservatives reasons to vote on November 5th

Okay, then. Don't vote.

[Smedley]

Here's a reason. Conservative judges. Take control of the Senate and let's get some judicial appiontees through the Daschle blockade

[Sabertooth]

As if preventing democrats from making a gain is not reason enough?

No, it usually isn't.

Not a few conservative voters aren't persuaded by the "take it or leave it" approach of Republican moderates, and either don't vote or vote third party. The GOP leadership has made the repeated mistake of taking conservative votes for granted, particularly in '92, '96,' '98, and 2000. We got lucky by a few hundred votes in Florida last time out, otherwise those elections were net gains for the Democrats.

A replay of condescension to conservatives is not likely to produce a better outcome this year.

[rdb3]

Thye [sic] know we won't vote for a stinking demorat, so its okay to ignore the serious conservatives.

Okay. Consider yourself duly ignored.

[College Repub]

Who said you had to be a conservative to be (or vote) Republican? But if you are a conservative, I'd imagine you would rather see a Republican in power than a Democrat. If you honestly can not see any differences and choose not to vote "R" then you have no right to complain when dems retain the Senate and tie up conservative judge nominations!

[College Repub]

Beat me to it...see my post #17

[Sabertooth]

You are speaking of the dumbest of the dumb here. There is never a reason for them to vote only bitch and whine and we have some grand champions on site.

Nice "get out the vote" motivational speach!

[rdb3]

Here's a reason. Conservative judges.

Shhh! As if that matters to the pious "true" conservatives. It should matter. But you and I know that to these types, it doesn't.

[RightWhale]

So far, the only ones doing any campaigning at all are Democrats. Republicans are poor campaigners as a rule, they seem to lack a feral go-for-the-throat instinct. The stock market and the associated finger-pointing and blame-placing are great for challengers, bad for incumbents. Democrats are always somehow challengers, even if they are incumbents.

[Blood of Tyrants]

Please list all the laws passed that promote Republican causes. Bush SIGNED all of those bills into law, forever putting his official seal of approval on all of them.

I didn't leave the Republican Party, the Republican Party left me.

[Sabertooth]

If you honestly can not see any differences and choose not to vote "R" then you have no right to complain when dems retain the Senate and tie up conservative judge nominations!

If the GOP leadership once again persues a lukewarm strategy that has no appeal to some conservative voters, and elections are lost as a result, you and that leadership you support have no cause to complain if the Dems retain the Senate and tie up judicial nominations.

[College Repub]

So you are just going to stay home and note vote? Not even for an imperfect party that is better than a HORRIBLE party? Do you honestly believe that there are no differences between the two parties?

[Torie]

Pretty weak analysis. There is absolutely no evidence that "conservatives" will stay home rather than vote for local candidates. There also isn't any evidence that the group is disillusioned with Bush if you read the polls. Apparently those folks care more about Bush's overall demeanor, handling of 9-11, and the judge nomination situation. Yes Buchanan fans might not vote, although in local races the individual campaigns will determine that. Weyrich as usual assumes that his obsessions and reactions to events are the same as everyone elses who is to the right of center. They haven't been, and they aren't now.

[mulligan]

There is a little difference between R's and D's. Both groups are taking us down the road to socialism, but the R's seem to have a few more `good' ones than `evil' ones.

However, as I said to my wife one day (and she was not too happy with my comment) does it make a difference whether you are raped by a good person or an evil person.

Some decisions are tougher than others.

[SamBees]

Those are the words of Rush Limbaugh. I guess you can't handle the heat in the kitchen. Rush himself said that the administration is counting on conservatives to stay in line and vote right because they have no place else to go.

Neither Rush or I are saying conservatives have no other place to go, but that is what the admin. thinks.

[glc1173@aol.com]

So far, the GOP isn't giving conservatives the reason to vote in 2004, either; Dump Bush!

[Sabertooth]

One issue that would really stir the grass roots is immigration. Look at what has happened in Western Europe. Eleven of 14 Members of the European Economic Community now have right of center governments. And it is possible that total will be 12 this fall if German voters go the way the polls are now suggesting. Immigration was one of the key issues that brought those right of center governments to power. Even the Dutch government intends to curb the liberal lifestyle in that country. The problem is that President Bush has a fundamental disagreement with Representative Tom Tancredo (R-CO) whose views on immigration resonate well with the grass roots. So immigration will not be made an issue by the Republican Party or if it is it will be in the form of President Bush's outreach to the Hispanic community.

President Bush is out of step with a big chunk of the American People, and particulary within his own party, on immigration matters.

If that costs him votes, whose fault is that?

[deport]

In 1994 these conservatives constituted 37 percent of the vote. In 2000, they constituted only 31 percent of the vote. If they drop another percentage or two, Republicans will lose, and could lose big.

Not sure where Paul is getting the 2000 numbers but the exit polling I've seen indicates only 29% as conservative. So if they stay home or vote for the democrat then he's correct in that the democrats will controll Congress and probably the Presidency in 04.

---

Exit Data

				GORE	BUSH	BUCHANAN	NADER
	On most political matters, do you consider yourself:
	% of total		category	% of category
	21		Liberal	80	13	1	6
	50		Moderate	53	43	1	3
	29		Conservative	17	81	1	1
				GORE	BUSH	BUCHANAN	NADER
	Part of the religious right
	% of total		category	% of category
	14		Yes	19	79	1	1
	83		No	55	41	1	3

[sinkspur]

A replay of condescension to conservatives is not likely to produce a better outcome this year.

The unappeaseables among conservatives will never be happy, as their "my-way-or-the-highway" mentality is politically unrealistic, though they continue to tell themselves otherwise.

[rdb3]

Those are the words of Rush Limbaugh.

Really? When did Mr. Limbaugh say "Okay. Consider yourself duly ignored?"

Yeah, you have plenty of places to go. So do yourself a favor and just go there. Your mind is already made up.

[SamBees]

That is not what I said. I was pointing to the fact that Rush Limbaugh said that the admin. is not worried about Conservatives because the admin. thinks we won't vote for a communistic democrat. They are right. We can be ignored because we have no other place to go. We cannot vote for Marxists.

[Temple Owl]

I ask this in all seriousness: What percent of the Jewish and black vote to we have to get for a GOP landslide. I am being told that about 15 percent of those voters would give us a complete victory. I do not know if the is right.

[Sabertooth]

The unappeaseables among conservatives will never be happy, as their "my-way-or-the-highway" mentality is politically unrealistic, though they continue to tell themselves otherwise.

Can also read...

The unappeaseables among conservatives "moderates" will never be happy, as their "my-way-or-the-highway" mentality is politically unrealistic, though they continue to tell themselves otherwise.

Where is your evidence that taking votes for granted has been a viable strategy for the GOP?

[BlazingArizona]

Right now, the stock market seems to be predicting a Democratic sweep.

[Coop]

True, but don't underestimate the profound dismay with which the grassroots views Dubyah. An awful lot of us have given up on him, and the GOP.

Interesting, considering polls show the exact opposite. And I do mean opposite. Conservatives and Republicans overwhelmingly approve of President Bush.

Sorry. Didn't mean to interrupt your story. Where were you? Oh yes...

"Once upon a time..." :-)

[Blood of Tyrants]

There are differences alright. But only as to the speed and route they take to centralize all power into the hands of the federal government.

Fortunately, I don't have to make the choice between too many socialist and socialist-lite candidates this time as most of my choices will be fairly clear. However, from now on I will stick with my gut on a candidate. I knew from the beginning that Bush was not a real conservative and I should have gone with the Libertarians or the Constitution Party.

I will NEVER vote again for Republican just because they are a Republican.

[Blood of Tyrants]

P.S. There ARE people to vote for who have neither an R or a D beside their name. So, no, I will not stay at home on election day.

[lideric]

Our party leaders are banking on capturing the hearts and minds of democrats to the degree that they will change parties and vote for the Republicans.

Yep. I could never understand why the wimpy republicans in congress forget the example that Reagan set for them: Talk and walk as a conservative and all your base will vote for you and a lot of the (Reagan) democrats will too.

[SoDak]

One word--judges. Bush would have already appointed many conservative judges to the bench if the Leahy gang weren't in charge of it.

[weikel]

I agree Republicans are not ruthless enough. We should also start using vote fraud giving cigarettes to homeless people etc.

[rdb3]

One word--judges.

Shhh!
See my #20.

[sinkspur]

Where is your evidence that taking votes for granted has been a viable strategy for the GOP?

See what I mean?

Either the GOP does what you want or they're "taking your vote for granted."

[SoothingDave]

One word--judges.

That's right. If we conservatives hadn't supported Bush the Elder we wouldn't have that great conservative jurist David Souter on the bench now.

SD

[College Repub]

And what exactly do you gain by voting Lib or Constitution party?

[SoothingDave]

Either the GOP does what you want or they're "taking your vote for granted."

Either a political party governs according to the philosophy which they present during the election, or you don't trust them again.

SD

[Consort]

Buchanan (#1) bolted the Party and what did it get him? At this very moment, he is sitting next to Bill Press (#2) and Helen Thomas (#3) on MSNBC (#4). Count them: that's 4 big time losers.

[SoothingDave]

And what exactly do you gain by voting Lib or Constitution party?

Perhaps a GOP who doesn't take their conservative base for granted. What Al Gore wouldn't give to have the Nader votes he didn't get in Florida.

SD

[Sabertooth]

Interesting, considering polls show the exact opposite. And I do mean opposite. Conservatives and Republicans overwhelmingly approve of President Bush.

And what office is President Bush running for in November?

It remains to be seen whether his poll numbers will translate into GOP House and Senate victories this year. Many who are giving the President good marks will still vote Democrat.

If hardliners don't vote GOP, and Bush's strategy fails to take the Senate or even loses the House this year... whose responsibility would that be?