Recent Political Analysis from the RNC

GOP Team Leader ^ | 7/23/02 | Matthew Dowd

[Alex P. Keaton]

Over three months ago, based on historical evidence, I predicted that President Bush’s approval numbers would slowly decline and likely settle into the low 60s as Democratic partisans returned home, higher than his pre-9/11 approval numbers.

It took FDR's approval numbers 46 weeks to return to their normal levels from prior to Pearl Harbor. And it took former President Bush's approval numbers 41 weeks to return to normal levels after Operation Desert Storm. After 44 weeks President Bush is still experiencing historically high approval ratings.

The President’s approval number has been dropping by an average of two percentage points a month. At the end of September 2001, Gallup showed the President’s approval at 90%; in April, 2002 it was 76%; and today, in nearly all polls, it is between 70% and 74%. This is somewhat better than the decline we expected. Nonetheless, we still expect the average drop to continue and the numbers should settle out around 62 to 64% by November 2002. Many pundits and politicians continue to attribute the decline to daily events or political attacks when in fact the natural historical trend we eyed many weeks back is holding true.*

Recently, there has been increasing attention and much commentary, some misguided, on the right direction/wrong track numbers. Today, in RNC polls, right direction is even with wrong track. This is exactly where the numbers were before 9/11/01. The right direction numbers are well off the highs that followed the events of last September, but the return of this one number does not reflect the overall political landscape as many pundits might suggest.

An accurate understanding must consider the entire political landscape. Consider the following for comparison. Prior to 9/11, the right direction/wrong track numbers were exactly
what they are today and the following political dynamic existed:

1. the Democratic Party had a four point favorability advantage over the Republican party;
2. Democratic candidates led on generic ballot by 4 to 6 points;
3. President Bush’s approval was 51%;
4. Bush approval on handling economy was +3% over disapproval; and
5. voters seeing Bush as understanding the average person was +4% over not understanding.

In contrast, while the right direction number has returned to a pre-9/11 level the following political dynamic exists today:

1. the Republican Party has a two point favorability advantage;
2. the generic ballot is even;
3. Bush approval is approximately 73%;
4. Bush approval on the economy is +21% over disapproval; and
5. Bush understanding average person is now +23% over not understanding.

So a return to pre-9/11 right direction of country has not meant a return to the same pre- 9/11 political landscape. It is important to note that some politicians and pundits will use one indicator to support their arguments or judge the changing political environment but when you consider the entire current landscape; right direction is back to pre-9/11 levels, Republicans have maintained an increase of support by four to six points, and President Bush maintains an increase of support by 18 to 22 points on various scales it still looks as though, the outcome of the November elections will be decided district by district and state
by state.

*From Mathew Dowd Memo March 20, 2002: "As President Bush's numbers drift lower, many pundits will want to attach cause and effect to the drop reflecting some current event, when in reality it will be merely a combination of historical movement and Democratic partisans returning to norm."

[Oldeconomybuyer]

...and Democratic partisans returning to norm."

Bigtime.

[The Vast Right Wing]

Message to republicans: Be aggresive, do not let the Democrats tar you with the corporate scandal, they were in charge during the 90's.

[eureka!]

Good to see you around Alex. Neat post to boot...

Otherwise, random ping with an invite to ping others...

[Gophack]

Message to republicans: Be aggresive, do not let the Democrats tar you with the corporate scandal, they were in charge during the 90's.

We need to be on the offensive, not the defensive; we need to realize that this is a war and treat it as such.

[Eala]

we need to realize that this is a war and treat it as such.

And it is a war. The democRATs initiated (without declaration) a take-no-hostages, scorched-earth-policy war a long, long time ago. It's been decades since we've seen any decency from them, and it's long past time the Republican party woke up to the fact.

[Gophack]

Bump