Posted on 07/28/2002 3:16:49 PM PDT by Silas
Greetings,
I enjoy discussing real estate investment. Investing in real estate involves a number of issues including demographics, business, culture, crime, geography, weather, lifestyle, etc.
After exhaustive research, I have concluded that the best opportunity for long term real estate appreciation is in Davis, California. I have based this on the supply/demand as well as other demographic and business issues.
Maybe I'm wrong about this analysis. I'd like to read other people's opinions on what they see as the best place to invest in real estate. Thanks in advance.
The WSJ had an article recently that pointed out the Pittsburgh PA area was the real estate market most out of whack, income vs. house prices. It is not a good time to buy real estate in many areas though, particularly California. As soon as the interest rates start heading back up, and of course they will, house prices will start falling. The 30 year low interest rates are abnormally low which is fueling the fools gold rush. If you really want your money in real estate, short stocks that invest in housing mortgages. There's going to be a big bank fiasco when suddenly people owe more on their houses than they're worth, and they're still unemployed.
There's a California real estate bubble going on, don't jump in until it bursts. Give it a year and you'll save 30 percent or more on buying a place. Didn't you learn anything from the stock market bubble burst? Don't follow the herd over yet another cliff.
The budget deficit is more than ALL the other states combined.
Plus, we have a group of people robbing (taxing) Peter to pay Paul.
Paul votes and thinks this is a great idea. Paul likes it when Peter has to pay, pay, pay. Paul may or may not be a citizen but that doen't stop him from voting. Paul's last name is Legion and he likes Gray Davis.
prisoner6
I think most of the other responses to this thread are sarcastic, just in case you didn't notice.
A quick glance at the market (realtor.com is your friend) makes me think it's pretty pricey - it's at least as expensive as LA, and since it's nowhere near the ocean it definitely doesn't fit my personal definition of a good place to live.
(Now that I have attacked the area, no doubt there will be some fine residents of Davis out to defend it. Good; that was the point!).
California is an expensive state with an extremely troubled government. Fortunately, that doesn't seem to affect its economy; it's also an extremely rich state. This bizarre circumstance is thanks not to its government, but to its excellent weather and thriving businesses of all sorts. You hear a lot of griping from Californians, yes, but at the end of the day, it's tough to leave a place with so many urban amenities and great weather.
But does Davis have those urban amenities and great weather? It's near Sacramento, and that's not exactly a delightful or upscale place. Just the pictures of the houses make me nervous; there is nothing I could love about them; they are just generic, cookie-cutter developer creations.
From what I can tell, then, Davis has the curse of California's high cost without most of the blessings. And that would make me more than a little nervous.
But perhaps there's something I've missed?
Finally, it's tough for me to figure out what would look like a good place to put your real estate dollars. Orange County is a possibility, since I believe that area is very well managed, and there are plenty of people who have fled LA incompetence to enjoy life in the smooth, capable hands of developer Donald Bren's Orange County. Brenland may not have a soul, but it has an efficient police department, well maintained roads, excellent schools and an impressive natural setting near the ocean. (Brenland is my name for the really expensive parts of Orange County, roughly from Irvine to the sea, because virtually all of it was developed under the slick competent hands of Donald Bren et al).
So what's wrong with that picture? Well, real estate is already hideously expensive. And quite frankly, I worry about the real estate bubble everywhere in California; for all we rationalize our crazy real estate prices, it must give one pause that a family with the statistically median income can't even dream of being able to afford the statistically median house. That strikes me as a gigantic red flag; but it was true when I moved here over ten years ago, and it's even more true now.
Personally, if I were to invest in real estate, I'd want to invest in a place where I would want to live. I'd also want to invest in a place of proven desirability, into which people were moving steadily. If you want to invest in the frontier of the American Dream, be sure it will live up to the hype. I remember when I wanted to set up a service that would notify its customers of foreclosure sales. As I was checking out the listings, I saw that most of them had addresses like 3702 Avenue Q-12. "Who would want to live on Avenue Q-12?" I thought.
The Avenue Q-12s of tomorrow are risky business in the present. Or so I would think.
But perhaps I'm all wet.
(I have added some people to this thread who I think might have some personal knowledge of the areas involved).
D
Think you need to continue your "exhaustive" research, Silas. (The Davis area is where you live, isn't it?)
As an aside, the most positive aspect about real estate investing in CA is the high demand and high incomes. Rents in SF are $3K+/unit for large nice units, compared to less than a thousand for comparable units elsewhere in the country. Of course you pay more, but the demand is higher also; hence rarely a vacancy.
We have some excellent bridges here and I can probably get you in the investment pool...that is if we act quickly. Can you wire $50 k tomorrow?
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Western Pa is drowning in a cesspool of socialism. Maybe real estate prices are out of whack but there's good reason. TAXES!
Plus this is one of the hardest places in the country to predict the weather, except to say it's usually rotten.
And did I mention the roads? No matter where you want to go you cant get there from where you are because of never ending re-construction.
The only good thing I can say about Pittsburgh/W. PA is we have a pretty darn dedicated group of FReepers here. I think we were one of the first groups outside of Sacramento and DC to organize, albeit loosely.
But when we get going we have tons of fun! We marched for Elian, we FReeped ALGORE, we've been present at lots of democRAT/liberal/socialist events, we held very successful demonstartions downtown during the election controversy, we FReeped x42, we showed support for W, we go into the local watering holes - the bars, the temples, the massage parlors and present conservative philosophy. We're working to change things but it's going to take A LOT of time!
Embarassed I am to admit I can't recall details of something that began to pull W. Pa Freepers together. I suppose it's been long forgotten in the annals of FReeperdom but does anyone remember the fellow who rode his horse from Indiana(?) to DC durnig the impeachment?
Ted???? camped out at night or stayed with FReepers along the way. Being in the spring it wasn't a pleasant ride. But we followed along on the net and watched as he rode triumphant into DC.
For me at least I think it was a turning point for FReepers not just here but across the country, maybe around the world. It not only brought us together in a common cause on our computers but also gave us something tangible as well when we saw him ride by in real life.
I think Teds??? ride ranks up there with the first DC gathering, and was a moment when we saw our ideas that for the most part had been limited to computer postings, gel into a concrete event.
It was a defining moment and brought so many of us, especially along the route together.
prisoner6
Maybe 2 years ago, but rents are falling in SF. Have you advertised for renters lately? Rents are just slightly more in SF than the East Bay right now. People are trying to save money so they choose the East Bay not realizing parts of SF have really come down in price. There is a whole lot of unemployed people in SF right now. Guess what happens to SF real estate prices when interest rates go up and those equity cash outs go underwater?
Cost per square foot of a new home about $105 as opposed to San Fran of $325. Excellent new developments near I 215 as new sections of the beltway are opened up.
Excellent return predicted whether there is a real estate bubble or not.
My company did work for that bid green aerodynamic building right where the canal makes a sharp turn.
If I recall correctly it was supposed to be the first building in the world designed kinda like a wing because of the wind loadings.
I spent a lot of time there remember being told that Wacker Drive had the highest rate of increase in real estate value in the US. (at the time...ummm around 1990)
And I really did fall in love with Chicago, but of course I wasn't there in the winter. That would have changed my mind big time.
When I was there I spent tons of my free time just driving around and taking things in. One thing that WAS bad was making a wrong turn in the middle of the night and ending up alone in one of those HUGE underground areas, probably around Wacker.
I was the only car moving and when the "residents" who inhabit that area spotted me they started rolling dumpsters and things to block the exits. Luckily a cop car had spotted me, knew I was lost and helped me out.
One of these days I do want to go back, but it's gotta be when it's warm! And I'm staying outta that undergroung thingy!
prisoner6
Sacramento area prices peaked in the early 90's, and didn't recover until about 99. They have appreciated considerably more since then, but history will probably repeat itself.
As for Davis, it is way overpriced.
I was thinking you are a brave person renting out housing in SF. You haven't be sued into the poor house yet? If you don't follow all the rules very precisely you get nailed. The renter laws in SF are very pro-renter, anti-landlord. Unless I was a lawyer I wouldn't want the risk. What's your opinion of SF renters? Have they been ok to you?
Is that in a cardbord box on Lower Wacker Drive? :-)
The least affordable place in America for the folks that live there relative to incomes? Yep, you guessed it, Salinas, California. Who would have thunk it? Elkhart, Indiana is the best buy, followed right up by Kokomo. Indiana in general appears to be dirt cheap. I guess no one wants to live there but Miss Marple.
The cheapest place in terms of median house prices on the list was Syracuse, New York. Hurry to snatch up the bargains.
But you also get snow, then rain and tornados, then hot and humid and then all them darn leaves that have to be raked up. A few days thrown in between that are reallly nice and it is ready to snow again.
LOL! Yeah the roads ARE intimidating. Then again I'm from Da 'Burgh and I'm used to crazy drivers and crazy highways.
And for living I prefer Rural America to the Big City any day!
prisoner6
,,, where's your sense of adventure Parsy? I've only been to Chicago once and would go back there without hesitation. Great town.
prisoner6
prisoner6
When United moved their repair facility here from San Francisco, a lot of their people re-located. I cannot tell you how many I have met (a lot located in my area because we are near the Interstate and they can get to the airport in 15 minutes), and they ALL go ON and ON about being able to afford a house!
Not only that, but many of them went from apartments or very modest homes to four-bedroom, professionally landscaped homes with lots of extras in upscale subdivisions. They also like the area because of the emphasis on schools, youth sports, and family activities.
We aren't as sophisticated as San Francisco, but if you want to raise a family, this is a good place to live.
Absolutely correct!
Living in a subdivision or a condo under a homeowners association is not anyway to live in the freest country on earth.
Sounds to me like you got lost on Lower Wacker, which is the downtown skid row.
I spent 8 years in Chicago and love the city. The 333 Wacker building you're talking about really is beautiful.
A lot of people want to live in SF; the East Bay to them is a different and unacceptable world. I don't see any tenants leaving for the East Bay. The only tenants I've had move in the last couple of years have gone back east.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.