Market Watch 7/29/02 (Dow +447.49, NASDAQ +73.10, SPC +46.12)

Yahoo ^ | 7/29/02 | me

[Wyatt's Torch]

or the Fed is manipulating the market, trying to goose it higher so the institutionals have a chance to cash out before it crashes again.

I have never been a conspiracy theorist when it comes to manipulation of financial markets. But after what happened to gold and JPM and CITI last week, I'm not so sure. There is still a LOT of fundamental weakness and it does not explain the 15% run-up since Wednesday.

[Slicksadick]

Pension funds changed asset ratio mix to hold substantialy more stock. IMHO one of the many reasons.

[Dales]

What changed since last week

My theory is...the mood. It didn't used to matter as much as it does now.

I actually hope I am wrong. The implications of a market that is so tied into sentiment are chilling, frankly.

[Principled]

I think the market will be over 10,000 by election day ...

Wouldn't that be a kick!

[Wyatt's Torch]

Pension funds changed asset ratio mix to hold substantialy more stock.

Interesting. What did they move it out of? Cash? Any link to some data? Thanks.

[Sally II]

Speaking of sentiment, tomorrow the consumer confidence report comes out. It may not pay to stay bullish by the marekt's close today.

[mwl1]

I'll add my $0.02... O'Neil and the administration have been successful in the past several days in conclusively demonstrating that the economic recovery is gaining momentum. Therefore, investors feel more positive about future earnings.

[Wyatt's Torch]

My theory is...the mood. It didn't used to matter as much as it does now.

I could buy it if the change in mood was related to the fact that a "corporate responsibility" bill was finished. Not what was in it just that it (the bill and its' associated regulation) couldn't get any worse. Markets don't particularly care for meddling govenment wonks who have no idea what havock they can wreak.

[Dales]

It wouldn't shock me to see tomorrow be a pullback. Actually, last Wednesday (see above) I said one of the first three days of this week would be one.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Any significant rebound is a disaster for Daschle-Gephardt-McAwful, Inc.

[Slicksadick]

This am's talking heads said it was moved from bonds. If todays gains hold, does this mean a 10% rise from last weeks lows changes us back to a bull market?

[Dales]

I make no claims as to what would have caused the mood to change. All I am noting is that I sensed the mood had changed.

[Wyatt's Torch]

conclusively demonstrating that the economic recovery is gaining momentum. Therefore, investors feel more positive about future earnings.

Not to be a complate cynic but have they conviced the same people that never saw the decline coming in the first place? Additionally, what are they using as "conclusive" evidence that there is a recovery? GDP growth? Productivity improvement (hey to LS;-)?

[spokeshave]

I still want to know WHY? What fundamentally changed since last week? If anyone can answer this, I'll leave it alone.

NINE for NINE....the rescue of the miners...the stoic intense rescue effort as played out on national TV...recognition of God and country as an inspiration.

Markets are sum total of rational (and irrational) perceptions.

The good guys got a big win

[Dales]

I don't doubt that will help, but the market started this rally before the miners were even trapped.

IF it is sentimentality driven, it may be the lump sum of any number of things, from Greenspan's speech to the picture of the Adelphia executives being carted off to who knows what.

[Wyatt's Torch]

to the picture of the Adelphia executives being carted off

Forgot about that one. That highly publicized white collar perp walk and the "corporate responsibility" deal both occurred on Wednesday. The latter happened just prior to the big jump in the afternoon.

[Miss Marple]

You know, as a side issue, I was thinking how much more I enjoyed hearing the young miner, Blaine Mayhugh, speaking at his press conference, than hearing the mournful intonations of Daschle, Lieberman, and the rest.

This really has nothing to do with the stock market, but since you were talking about the miners I thought I would just chime in. LOL!

[Dales]

Right.

I hope I am wrong. While I like the fact that the market is going back up, I really am scared by the idea of a market where so much is tied to emotions instead of logic.

[Dales]

Phenomenal story, isn't that one? I simply can't imagine what those men went through, and the engineering that went into the rescue operation is just breathtaking. What a great testimony to the power of the human will and mind, coupled with divine providence.

[spokeshave]

Yes ..and there were no grandstanding dems in the entire episode...I think this was a big subliminal message to the sheeple.