Market Watch 7/29/02 (Dow +447.49, NASDAQ +73.10, SPC +46.12)

Yahoo ^ | 7/29/02 | me

[steveegg]

It's the bears that are tanking :)

[junta]

Did you say that in 99 as well?

[Wyatt's Torch]

Also, private investors may have pulled money out, but where are they going to put it...in BANKS? Heck, right now I would be worried about having my money in Citibank, plus they pay really low interest.

Comments about CITI aside, I've been in cash a Treasuries for 2 years. Not much return but beats a decline.

[Dales]

Can't say that I had picked up on the trend at that time, no.

[Wyatt's Torch]

While I like the fact that the market is going back up, I really am scared by the idea of a market where so much is tied to emotions instead of logic.

This is exactly my point...I think ;-)

[steveegg]

Echoing everone else; it's the (at least temporary) disappearance of the fear factor. Absent that, the fundamentals are (or at least appear) to be there for an extended rally back to 10,000/1800/1300; recovering economy, the return of some realistic profits and the shakeout of the high-flyers.

[Wyatt's Torch]

Me either. I blew a bunch of money investing at exactly the wrong time. I started educating myself about deflation too late for the beginning of the decline but over the last 18 months I've done fairly well.

[Miss Marple]

I have my money evenly divided between CD's at the locally owned bank and in stocks and mutual funds. The stock stuff has declined a bit from it's high, but I did buy in a bit during the September crash, and therefore my loss is not as gloomy as some. Plus, looking at the value of each from 1 1/2 years ago, the stocks are still ahead of the 2.9% CD's.

I will probably switch the CD's to treasuries when they mature, but the stocks are going to be in the IRA account for at least another 15 years, so what the heck, I am not going to get upset.

[Principled]

Any significant rebound is a disaster for Daschle-Gephardt-McAwful, Inc.

Any disaster for Daschle-Gep-McWawful is a significant reboud for the USA!

[justshe]

There have also been multiple statements from administration sources that there are MORE hand-cuffs on the horizon. I think that helped too.

[Miss Marple]

Public mood is complicated. Clinton's loathesome comments may have entered into this as well, reminding people of how much he didn't do, even as he complains about being criticized unfairly.

The mine rescue, in a funny way, may also give people confidence in the war, because demonstrated right before their eyes was ingenuity, courage, and determination of American workers. The thing I have noticed is how competent these unsung heroes like miners and soldiers are, while the Wall Street experts seem to be either clueless or crooks. Honestly, I think I might buy some Halliburton stock (they provided that big drill that was used to drill the rescue shaft). Ha!

[Destructor]

"It'll be interesting to see if this rally continues, or if it is a bear trap. I personally believe the former."

Well said! One thing about Bear Markets is that they usually end abruptly, and catch a lot of people off guard. No doubt we haven't seen the end of the roller coaster ride, but now is the time to be optimistic! For America, the best is yet to come!!

[wardaddy]

Only when tanking...LOL.....I am late to work. I'm baffled by these indices. A sell off this morning would not have suprised me. What gives?

[M. Thatcher]

I really am scared by the idea of a market where so much is tied to emotions instead of logic.

Relax. Twas ever thus. It's called human nature, and it has been a constant from the market's inception.

[Tauzero]

Rally will end in 1-3 weeks, IMO. Possibly lasting into October, to give an "October surprise". :)

[wardaddy]

If this surge continues. We will be at 9500 long before November. Whether it holds or not is the question. I'm suprised at this morning's spike and I'm bullish overall in contrast to the overwhelming crowd of naysayers on this forum.

At some point with a nearly a 12-15% spike in less than a week, someone is going to take some profits. Whether or not there will be momentum to counter that will depend on perception and the instituional investor's timing. This is quite odd. If 8-14 passes with no heavy hammers dropping then will this spike have already been factored in or will that cause a surge.

What an incredible market! This market will be one for the textbooks.

[Coop]

My theory is...the mood. It didn't used to matter as much as it does now. I actually hope I am wrong. The implications of a market that is so tied into sentiment are chilling, frankly.

And I think your theory is right. The market is completely removed from the economic news right now, just as it was a few years ago. I think it's because there's so much "new money" in the market, and many of these folks react emotionally instead of logically (read: after extensive research).

[wardaddy]

Today they are. Now....me....the optimist is a bit worried about how to view this spike. There will be a pullback.

It would appear that folks are running to get back in long. The shorties are taking a beating today. It seems to be pure psychology...(helped by the miner story probably) and also the hope that by 8-14, we will not know of any other major scandals that we don't already suspect.

[Tauzero]

"The implications of a market that is so tied into sentiment are chilling, frankly."

The stock market is always and intimately tied to sentiment.

A case can be made that US stock markets appeared to behave more rationally when a smaller percentage of the population owned stocks (today's percentage is enormous and anomalous.) But the markets only appeared so then because of the poor regard most people had for stocks.

[wardaddy]

Your mood seems improved friend. Now...I'm a bit worried about the emotive factor on the upside. If this trend continues for another week, we will have far-outpaced the post 1987 recovery and in much much shorter fashion. Somebody is going to take those profits and the long term mutual fund 401K folks are going to have to ride out a dip.