The Iraq Obsession

STRATFOR ^ | 12 August 2002 | Staff

[dennisw]

Not too shabby an analysis!

[stalin]

Our window of oportunity is closing. We should have removed him by now. It looks like the administration is either waiting until closer to the next presidencial election so he can win a second term or is waiting for public pressure to remove Sadam dies down because they really don't want to do it in the first place.

[stalin]

The last thing that we want in the Islamic world is democracy. We need brutal Kings in Iraq , Kuwait , Saudi Arabia , with an American boynet in their backs doing our bidding.

We should take control of the oil.

The Germans and French and anyone else that bitches about American mideast policy can pay $50 a barrel while the British and the rest of our friends pay $15.

[Travis McGee]

Kick their ass and take the gas!

[alloysteel]

The US does not have an "obsession" with removal of Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq. We have a duty, much as a homeowner would have in opening a sewer line clogged with root growth. First, remove the tree, then dig up the sewer line, and clean out or replace as needed. Dirty, tedious, expensive, and diverts resources from other aspects of life, but necessary. Of course, removing Saddam from power may mean a whole lot of life changes for the Hussein family, but at the moment we are not particularly concerned with his comfort or his quality and enjoyment of life.

[Mr. Mojo]

Not too shabby an analysis!

These wannabe intel officers at Statfor are as anti-Israel a bunch as you'll find. A week after 9/11 they predicted - hoped? - that there was going to be a sea change in U.S./Israeli relations in the coming months, and that a complete break in relations isn't out of the realm of possiblity.

Basically, they're idiots.

[jwfiv]

Great read. Thanks for posting it.

Trouble is, the writer neglected to mention another reason to knock Saddam off his throne.

If we do nothing, practice containment/appeasement, he will surely give a nuke bomb to al-queda, or a bug bomb. Maybe millions of Americans turned to ash in a moment.

Not cool.

How can Stratfor neglect to mention such an obvious eddy in the stream?

[kjam22]

We should take control of the oil. The Germans and French and anyone else that bitches about American mideast policy can pay $50 a barrel while the British and the rest of our friends pay $15.

I agree with your sentiments. Unfortunately that isn't what we'll do. We'll spend billions installing some marginally friendly muslim diectator that promises to have elections now and then. He won't be able to control his own "hardline" factions and we'll have the same issues then that we have now.

[stalin]

unfortunately , I agree with you. Afganistan will be the same way. Already is.

[Jim Scott]

The use of the word 'obsession' on the Bush administrations part is misplaced but otherwise, not a bad analysis, although nothing original here.

Saddam Hussein must be removed - obviously, by force - and his ability to develop WMD ended. The practical as well as the psychological advantages to this plan are inescapable.

The recognition of the Palestinian desire to destroy Israel, not to live in peace, is correct and the Bush administration now recognizes it, too. A good move forward.

I believe the oil issue is overblown but it will always be a factor. More importantly, what do we do with Saudi Arabia after Iraq has been defeated and a friendly government installed? I expect the Saudi King and his Princes will roll over and either flee for europe or else become solid U.S. allies. I would bet on the former. Good riddance.

[stalin]

good analogy. I doubt we'll do what's needed though. The line may get some rotor rootering....maybe. but no digging or repairing is likely to be acomplished. It's just too difficult.

Politicains do what is politically expedient not what is necessary for furture prosparity. They take the path of least resistance. Somtimes that path of least resistence requires some bombing and maybe a regime change now and then becase political pressure demands it but actually fixing the problem is almost never a political requirment in the short term and politicains are usually only looking as far as the next election.

That's what got us into this mess in the first place.

[stalin]

I think that if we make it clear that we mean business the Saudis and Kuwaiti's will shift gears as rapidly as they did in the first Gulf war and become our staunch allies again. They are giving us a touph time because we are pussies.

Arabs only respect force. US military might is of no concequence unless we have the credability to use it. Our credability has been badly tarnished since the first Gulf war. Afganistan didn't help because we didn't use ground forces. We need to reasert our dominance and replenish our credability by kicking some serious butt on the ground killing our enemies and controling enemy territory with US ground forces.

[stalin]

Yes !!!

[dvwjr]

You will find that recent FR sign-ups are not taken seriously for about 3-6 months. Too many liberal disruptors, so have patience.

The Bush foreign policy team has their eyes on the prize. After taking down Iraq, the rest of the Middle East will become more pliant. The Arabs are much like the Germans, either at your throat, or at your feet. They still have to be dragged from dictatorships after WMDs and monarchies after survival before the Arabs nations can join the rest of us in the 21st century.

dvwjr

[Monti Cello]

It looks like the administration is...waiting...

I don't think we are waiting, we are just getting prepared to do it right. As the article points out, the key aspect of the invasion will be its theatrical value. We had better be prepared and thorough.

We have to demostrate the Islamic world that we are a dedicated and methodical exterminator.

[stalin]

I hope that you're right. We can forget having a coelition this time. That is probably a good thing.

[dennisw]

Stratfor usually publishes non-sense when it comes to the MidEast and Israel. Maybe this was a different "analyst" who wrote it. I thought it was a good piece.

Stratfor seems scaled down from what they used to put out at their website. My guess is they're down to just a few writers. Maybe even just one and a part time webmaster.