Posted on 08/23/2002 7:13:39 AM PDT by Enemy Of The State
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| PHOTO: CHEN CHENG-CHANG, TAIPEI TIMES |
WARNING: Ex-Japanese ambassador Hisahiko Okazaki warned yesterday that if the two powers fail to address inconsistencies in their Taiwan policies, war could result
By Monique Chu
STAFF REPORTER
Policies designed to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, now exercised by both Washington and Beijing, are by nature "vulnerable," and should be altered to avoid a collision between the two powers, former Japanese ambassador Hisahiko Okazaki warned yesterday.
Okazaki, addressing the first US-Japan-Taiwan Trilateral Strategic Dialogue seminar, discussed the course of world history over the next fifty to one hundred years.
"Only China can be regarded as the next challenger to the Anglo-Saxons," said Okazaki, speaking at the Westin Hotel in downtown Taipei.
| "If China confronts the US, I am afraid that it will meet with the same fate as other nations who have challenged Anglo-Saxon hegemony." |
| Hisahiko Okazaki, former Japanese ambassador |
"If China confronts the US, I am afraid that it will meet with the same fate as other nations who have challenged Anglo-Saxon hegemony," Okazaki said, adding that the Taiwan factor is the most pivotal element in future Washington-Beijing ties.
Okazaki went on to argue that both Washington and Beijing "appear to agree on the maintenance of the status quo in the Taiwan Strait," a situation the diplomat perceived as "vulnerable" by its very nature.
"The US declares that it would not support Taiwan independence. But how long can the US persuade Taiwan to refrain from seeking formal independence?" said the 72-year-old veteran diplomat.
"It can't keep preventing the Taiwanese from freely expressing their own will through democratic procedures."
If a majority of Taiwanese do vote for independence, Okazaki argued that the US would "most likely defend a fellow democracy," given what he observed as the current climate in the pro-Taiwan US Congress.
The Cambridge-educated economist, who during the past 50 years has climbed the Japanese bureaucratic ladder with impressive defense as well as foreign ministry experience, then urged the US to revamp its longstanding policy toward Taiwan.
"The US should stop asking for artificial restraint and let Taiwan's democracy work. It should refrain from repeating the empty words `one China,' or `non-support of Taiwan independence,'" he said.
The US should not intervene in the future course of Taiwanese politics, he warned, adding: "The US should instead watch carefully the natural course of events, while committing itself to the defending the freedom of Taiwan."
Evaluating Beijing's policy toward Taipei, Okazaki, currently serving as director of the Tokyo-based think tank, The Okazaki Institute, said China's policy of maintaining the status quo is "short-term," as Beijing has claimed it would not wait indefinitely for unification.
But with some Chinese leaders proposing that Beijing could "negotiate" with Taipei after its military forces occupy the island, Beijing's concept of maintaining the status quo could put the US and China on a "collision course," Okazaki said.
"But the question is whether this would be perceived as a peaceful negotiation. In the context of the Taiwan Relations Act, it would be considered an act of intimidation, one that the US would most likely not accept," Okazaki said.
"China should never underestimate the fact that the Anglo-Saxons can sometimes be tremendous fighters, formidable adversaries ... Be careful about dealing with the Anglo-Saxons," Okazaki said, triggering a roomful of laughter from an audience from the US, Japan and Taiwan.
Osaki argued that such a conflict could eventuate if and when Beijing believed that the loss of Taiwan would result in the loss of Tibet and/or other territories.
Beijing, however, could quickly defuse the situation by seeking a peaceful settlement with Taipei by agreeing to a "separate Taiwan," said the former minister and ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Thailand.
Only one thing is for sure and that you can take to the bank, if the bible says an army of 200 million wipes out a third of mankind, it will happen eventually. If atmospheric conditions or weapons like the pulse prohibit the use of anything with electronics then all armies will be back to WW1 tactics and weapons. As far as being on horseback goes, we have already seen our military on horseback in Afghanistan, so it's no big leap to figgure in horses in future battles in that area.
1. A Portion of far northern Pakistan now effectively under Chinese control - and with the blessing of Islamabad. Does anyone need to ask who is fueling the ongoing insurgency in Afghanistan?
2. Due south of there, at the port of Gwadhar, the PRC work along side the Pakistani Navy to construct what will be the first new Naval base of the 21st century. Can you say Strait of Hormuz?
3. Although, supposedly, "Maoists" and the CCP are currently quite at odds, nonetheless, Beijing funnels arms and money to groups in India (communist insurgents) who then push it into Nepal for the Maoists.
4. In Myanmar, the PRC (with help from Pakistan, and, gasp... Russia, build military infrasture including but not limited to Navy bases, ELINT, missile bases, and roads... lots and lots of roads.
5. Did I mention roads? How about roads and useful idiots. The superhighway from Kunming PRC (HQ for 14th Army, missile forces, TELs, tanks etc) to Bangkok is within weeks of completion. Funding? Well naturally the PRC, but also, businessmen in Bangkok who foolishly believe that the current benevolence shown by the PRC in the form of trade and business will blossom. And yet, look at #4 above - building up a nation historically at odd with Thailand. Myanmar now has the largest Armed forces in SE Asia and increasingly, the best hardware. Wuzzup widdat?
6. A similar situation as #4 and #5 vis a vis Laos, albeit quite a bit further behind. Of course, the PLA have been there for years, so they are only feet away from the heart of SE Asia at any given time.
7. The Spratleys, and many other areas of the S. China Sea have, since the 1980s, been occupied illegally by the PRC with no real opposition, particularly by the US and Australia, who in the past would have. Big mistake. Can you say Strait of Malacca?
Any questions?
It's not the Japanese that had to wake up.
The fact of the matter is that this nation has been swallowing DNC propaganda on the entire origin of WW-II!
Ask yourself a simple question: How is it that during FDR's first three terms, the FDR administration supported two nations (Russia and China) that eventually became massive socialist superpowers?
Somehow, the reality that Japan is the strongest trade partner for our nation escapes mention!
Japan is only looking out for her own destiny. China isn't entirely a threat to Japan, but certainly the amount of Japanese investment in China and Hong Kong is substantial.
"Russia acknowledges that there is only one China, the government of the People's Republic of China is the only legitimate government representing all of China, and Taiwan is an inalienable part of China," the treaty said. "Russia opposes any kind of independence for Taiwan."
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