http://www.deanesmay.com/archives/000267.html#000267
A Bucket Of Cold Water
Anti-Bush simmering in the blogosphere has of late been turned to a boil, mostly over the administration's handling of Saudi Arabia. I first started seeing it on left-wing sites, like that of the reliably Bush-bashing Ara Rubyan, who most memorably showed a picture of Bush smiling and standing next to the Saudi Crown Prince as if it were an endorsement of all bad things Saudi. Then the generally right-leaning Diane E. Moon began regularly lambasting Bush over unsubstantiated allegations of corruption and overly friendly relations with the Sauds. Suddenly, libertarian Bill Quick and a host of his readers have pledged to vote the Democratic ticket in November, despite their loathing of everything the Democratic Party stands for today, and even despite their belief that Democrats are mostly dovish. Their rationale for this is based entirely on the fact that the Bush administration continues to call the Saudis our allies.
Far be it from me to suggest that the Saudi government isn't awful. I think that all these folks have their hearts in the right place. But their heads aren't in the right place at all. At least, not yet.
The first thing to understand is that the Saudis are our enemies. The second thing to understand is that they are our allies. The third thing to understand is that it is entirely possible for them to be both.
The urge to be hostile toward the bastards is commendable. But there are several reasons that this urge needs to be kept under control--for now. Let us look at this from a Realpolitik standpoint:
1) Arab governments are, without exception, brutal tyrannies where, ultimately, only one thing matters: power. You get respect by showing power. You lose it by showing weakness. We must understand this about Arab rulers before we can understand anything else.
2) It is not possible for us to punish the Saudis. Embargoing their oil is impossible. Note that I did not say "politically impossible" or "economically too damaging." I said it's impossible, period. Oil markets do not work that way. Unless we were to somehow blockade their country, which is also impossible, they would sell as much oil the day after any hypothetical U.S. Embargo than the day before.
3) We cannot go to war with the Saudis without much more evidence than we have now, and a lot more preparation. If you really want to set off a powderkeg, just imply to the Muslim world that the Americans are about to attempt to conquer Mecca and Medina, based solely on the circumstantial evidence we have so far against the House of Saud.
Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey, Indonesia--forget it. The entire muslim world would be against us. We would also likely lose the Brits and everyone else; I doubt even Canada would be with us. Are we ready for that? Before you angrily shout, "Hell yeah, fuck them!" please stop and ask yourself if that will really lead us to long-term success.
Strategically, this would be a complete disaster.
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Since it is impossible for us to cripple the Sauds economically, and war against them is out of the question without a great deal more time and preparation, what remains? Making demands that we cannot possibly enforce? Let's go back to what I said before: in the world of despots, you get respect by showing power. You lose it by failing to show it.
The fastest way of all to lose respect is to make demands that you cannot possibly back up with force.
(By the way, "Oil" and "The Oil Companies" have not a God Damned Thing to do with any of this, except in the most trivial ways. If anything, oil companies would have explosive profits, would be swimming in money, if we lost access to Arab oil. On the other hand, if we conquered Arab oil fields, oil companies would be ecstatic, since they'd no longer have to share money with Arab despots. There is no major downside to war in the Middle East for the oil companies. People who posit that the oil companies have anything to do with any of these calculations simply are not thinking clearly.)
So, what is left for us to do? Declare them our enemies? Be rude to them and seize their U.S. assetts? Great. We get the satisfaction of saying "fuck you." They get to flip the bird back, call us thieves and weaklings, and put all of their support behind Islamo-fascism. Instead of only half of it, as they do for the moment.
Insulting them may make Ara, Diane, Bill, and others feel good. But what will it accomplish beyond that?
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So. If force is impossible for right now, and substantial economic harm cannot be inflicted, and if demands cannot be backed up with the threat of force, what exactly is a smart strategy? That's dictated by recognizing a couple of other things:
1) First and foremost, the Saudi government is despotic, but it is not a dictatorship. It is a divided oligarchy with competing factions, and a Crown Prince who does his best to maintain his balance atop them all. It is entirely possible for such a government to act as both our enemy and our ally. Which is exactly how they're acting.
2) Ultimately, the House of Saud members are Looking Out For Themselves. The Saudi Royal Family's only real religion is power, their only true God being their own pampered tushies. Some among them think their best route to maintaining power lies in moving away from the West. Some think it's in moving toward the West. The overall strategy the Crown Prince and his inner circle are persuing is playing both sides of the fence until they're sure which is the winning side: us, or Islamo-fascism (or "Islamism" or whatever else you want to call it). Otherwise, they'll maintain the status quo for as long as possible.
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If I'm wrong about any of the above, please let me know. But if I'm right--and I think most of you must recognize that I am--then what is the best strategy?
It's simple. We must recognize that the road to victory runs straight through Bagdad, with a possible useful detour through Tehran. That was as true six months ago as it is today.
Taking Bagdad rids us of a dangerous despot and at least one more supporter of terrorism. But, frankly, what's more important is that it demonstrates to the Arab world that we are a force to be reckoned with, and that we will use deadly force in that region. It also gives us a substantial military stronghold right in the middle of the Arab world.
Another blow against terrorism. A military stronghold in the center of the region. A major boost to our prestige in a regime where prestige means more than anything.
I call that win-win-win. What do you call it?
Once we have Bagdad, we vindicate the forces in the House of Saud's oligarchy who say that Islamofascism is a long-term loser and that the West is the wave of the future. We also loom as a reasonable threat to others in the region in a way that we never could by simply being truculent to the Sauds.
In the meantime, what must we do? I suggest:
1) Maintain friendly personal relations. With despotic oligarchies, these things have far more weight than they do with any other type of regime, even a liberal democracy.
2) Maintain business relationships.
3) Utilize their status as titular allies to get their backdoor help in lining up other Arab regimes to assist us, rather than pissing them off and therefore causing them to try to hinder us. Even if they don't want our bases on Saudi land, their support, or their opposition, can often be the dealmaker (or breaker) in using neighboring nations to launch our attacks on Iraq.
Gosh. That all looks an awful lot like what the Bushies are doing, doesn't it?
It should be clear that publicly, the Sauds are too afraid to help us openly in our war aims. But we have every reason to believe that elements within their government are willing to make back-channel efforts to help us in places like the UAE, Qatar, and countless other Arab and Muslim regimes. To the extent that we're willing to maintain in public that they are our allies, they will continue to do at least some things to help us, and avoid doing at least some other things to hinder us.
This is as much a struggle for which faction is victorious within Saudi Arabia as it is anything else. We cannot declare war on them, because we simply are in no such position now. So, in short, we must:
A) Keep calling them our allies,
B) Keep talking to them and pressuring them for whatever help we can, and
C) TAKE BAGDAD AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.
As I've said before, and will keep saying until someone finally acknowledges it: winning the war with the Axis required alliance with Stalin. In 1942, we had every reason to see Stalin as evilr. We also knew that even as we allied with him, he was still our enemy; as the Venona transcripts from the 1940s show, we knew that the Soviets were acting to infiltrate on us, spy on us, and that they ultimately aimed to overthrow our government both before and during our mutual war against Germany and Japan.
We knew they were doing this. We knew. We allied with them anyway. Why? Because it was necessary.
It is not a lie to call the Saudis our allies. If they do some things to help us--and they are doing things to help us--then they're our allies.
So. Say all you want about the bastard Saudis. Say all you want about their horrific legal system. Say all you want about Saudi treachery. You are right, about all of it. But they are our allies whether we like it or not. And we must continue to say "nice doggie' to them until we find an appropriate stick. Or brick, as the case may be.
So please stop kvetching when the President smiles while standing next to Stalin, while businessmen continue to try to keep up appearances and financial ties with Kruschev. And for God's sake, please encourage the Bushies to use this relationship with the two-headed snake to further our long-term goals, rather than bashing them for it.
Because the goal here isn't to make you feel good. The long-term goal is to win.
If you think I'm wrong about any of this, please explain what you think the right strategy is. I'm listening. I really am.