Reno and McBride in Dead Heat! (Reno on the Ropes in Florida!!)

(Ft. Lauderdale) Sun-Satanel ^

[blam]

I heard a McBride commercial here in Mobile last night and he was 'ripping' Jeb.

[Wphile]

...the new taxes will be up for consideration on the ballot this year. If it passes, it's likely we'll see the new taxes and the government will have more money to keep growing.

Well, if the idiots in Florida vote themselves a tax increase, you can hardly blame the governor. Even here in liberal Washington State a tax increase initative would never pass.

[shetlan]

"Big boy" lobbyists are beginning to step up to the dem plate. They smell hope with a McBride win.

[caltrop]

In 1994, JEB was a solid conservative. He had to be to win the primary. He lost that year to Lawton Chiles in a very close election. In 1998, in spite of the heavy Republican shift in those four years, he turned left. He didn't have any primary opposition, largely thanks to the then Republican Party of Florida Chairman Tom Slade's effort to ensure he didn't have to face a primary (Slade became a very, very prosperous lobbyist in Tallahassee right after JEB's victory) and ran against an inept Democrat. In spite of those advantages, Bush only gained 120,000 votes over his total in 1994. Buddy MacKay, the Democratic candidate, lost 350,000 of the votes Chiles had in 1994. The Democrats lost the 1998 election more than Bush won it. In 1998, conservatives had nowhere else to go and could be takend for granted. The assumption that Reno would be the Democratic candidate led to that same approach until very recently when it became clear, as I've been making clear in posts to you over the past couple of months, that it might be a Bush - McBride race.

JEB will have to do some fancy footwork to dispel the impression, correct in my view, that he's a Rockefeller Republican. If he can he'll lose some of the voters he's spent his term appealing to in South Florida and perhaps get back some of the votes he's lost in the Panhandle and North Florida. Either way, his belief in bigger government (7 1/2% plus increases in the years of his term we can measure, for example) have put him in a bind.

Well financed conservatives can win statewide in Florida. It's a shame Bush doesn't fit that description. If the Democrats nominate McBride, Bush will be facing a very tough race with the real possibility he'll be a one termer.

[caltrop]

Wrong. In this case you definitely can blame Bush. The effort to impose the new taxes began in the State Senate by the term limited Senate President. Bush, who 15 years ago was Secretary of Commerce (an appointed position) under one term Republican Governor Bob Martinez, saw an almost identical proposal destroy Martinez who supported it. Bush has said he opposed it in private conversations to Martinez in the strongest possible terms. When the proposal came up this year Bush suddenly had amnesia and said absolutely nothing beyond something to the effect that he had no objections to the Senate discussing the matter. With redistricting on the table and the unspoken, but obvious, approval of the Governor for the proposal, Senate President John McKay twisted arms and got it passed. The House, under Speaker Tom Feeney, refused to go along. For a number of reasons, primarily redistricting, the House finally agreed to go along with McKay and Bush's compromise proposal to put it to the voters as a ballot measure creating a commission to make a recommendation. Bush could have killed this before it even came to light. He chose not to.

[BigWaveBetty]

Hmmmmmmm, Janet is the front runner for all this time until McLawyer starts running commericials this past week. It's like they'll vote for any dem who's not Janet.

Have you seen an interview with this McLawyer toad? To every question his answer is, "Blah, blah, blah, I've been saying that for 14 months now."

McLawyer is so dense he doesn't understand that the entire state sans Tampa has never heard of him and doesn't know what he has said! I can hardly wait for the debates.

C'mon Janet! We really, really want to see you get stomped!

[summer]

RE your post #44 - caltrop, Thank you for your thoughtful post. I read it several times. While you are certainly more of an official expert in these matters than I will ever be, I do think I have several valid points to make to you in response:

(1) Gov Bush's actual record of accomplishments( CLICK HERE) is NOT the record of a Rockefeller Republican, IMO.

(2) I think what irks some conservatives about Gov Bush is that he does not spend as much time as they would like on party politics. I'm not saying this is what irks you, but I know it bothers some of them because they have told me that.

And, in my view -- good for Gov. Bush that he would rather spend his time answering the email of a student, a teacher or a small business owner than wasting time on party politicing and in-fighting.

(3) When you say a "well financed conservative" could win a statewide election in FL, I disagree. It depends on the candidate and the opponent. I still believe Feeney would be crushed if he ever ran in a statewide race in FL, because I believe too many independents and swing voters would reject him, no matter how much money he has backing him. Back in Nov 2000, BTW, out in the Eastern end of Long Island, NY, a well financed candidate - whose fundraisers were attended by Bill Clinton -- failed to win a seat and his opponent was a retired librarian who ran her campaign out of her kitchen. I am not making this up. Liberal Long Island voters rejected the Clinton clone, and voted for the librarian. Now, how to explain that, since she did not have the financial backing? Well, she won. So, money alone, for a conservative candidate like Feeney, will not do it, IMO.

(4) FL, in many ways, has remained one of the most conservative states in this country, as it is the only state where gays are not allowed to adopt foster children. Now, I am not saying this is a good or bad thing, but, I didn't hear Gov Bush dropping everything on his schedule to accomodate Rosie O'Donnell and her request to change FL law. All Gov Bush had to say, and did say, was: "We will enforce whatever the law is on gay adoption." But, then, the state attorneys went to court against it.

More importantly, I did not hear McLawyer open his mouth one inch on this issue of importance to many Dem voters. I know you will say "Well, he couldn't because that was his strategy" but it is this reticence on his part, as well as his over reliance on the teachers union among other things, that I find very dismaying.

(5) In comparing McLawyer with Gov Bush, I don't think being a marine is required to be the chief executive of a state, and no offense at all to marines or anyone else who served in the arm forces. I also think McLawyer is way too inexperienced for the challanges we now face in this country and in this particular state. I much prefer having the brother of the president remain as governor while our country is at war. I do not want a governor who can not get through to the White House if FL is attacked. McLawyer will never get my vote, and I also think it is common sense to want to have someone in the gov office who has the experience and ability to lead the state. McLawyer has not demonstrated that at all to me.

(6) If this race is a Bush-McLawyer race, there is no doubt in my mind McLawyer will lose it.

(7) Finally, I think when Gov Bush reaches out to other people and other types of voters, some conservatives get all flustered, as if this proves he is really "not" a conservative. IMO, it is possible that Gov Bush is a better salesman for conservatives - what other state gov ever instituted a plan like One FL and then won over 65% of the state's voters? McLawyer would scrap that plan ASAP if he could, and frankly, while I was lukewarm to that plan at first, there is no fairer way to treated the hundreds of different minorities in this state, especially those non-English speaking students who are now required to meet all standards. Are blacks going to get a break on college admissions again just because they're black if McLawyer wins? What does a teacher say to the other tan, brown, red and beige students who also want that break and can't get it because of THEIR skin color?

Dems have really not thought through on issues like affirmative action in the backdrop of drastic demographic changes, as well as other issues, like homeschooling. They want what they think sells to their base: special treatment for blacks (but not the kid off the boat from Guatamala who is just not black enough to get the special breaks), and everyone goes to public school, like it OR NOT. That's not right. It's too restrictive; too narrow for me. And, for many other voters, including those who see themselves as being ON THE LEFT here in FL.

I hope Gov Bush crushes McLawyer if McLawyer is the opposition, and I still think this is what will happen: Gov Bush wins it by a landslide this time around.

[caltrop]

We're going to have to continue to disagree. I will agree with you, however, that not all well funded conservatives will succeed in Florida on a statewide basis.

[I still care]

I live in the Tampa area. Last year my friend and I were discussing this - McBride is the real danger. He would suck votes in central Florida where he has a good reputation. We were so happy when it looked like Jackboot Janet might win.

[Big Steve]

I'm sure McBride would take votes in the Tampa area, but Jeb could win the more populated Miami-Dade County, which should offset the problem.

[summer]

We're going to have to continue to disagree. I will agree with you, however, that not all well funded conservatives will succeed in Florida on a statewide basis.

caltrop, Thank you for your polite post in response. I sincerely appreciate it. I think that's why I enjoy talking with you, even though, as you said, we disagree.

And, as for this year's FL gov race, well, time will tell.... :)

[summer]

PS Also, thank you for acknowledging this:

not all well funded conservatives will succeed in Florida on a statewide basis.

[shetlan]

"McBride is the real danger..."

Lobbyists and dem "funders" are pushing hard for McBride. They know he has a good shot to beat Jeb.

[summer]

This is all a bunch of malarky. When the Nov numbers are in, I will proved right.

[summer]

This is all a bunch of malarky. When the Nov numbers are in, I will be proved right.

[paul544]

I'm not impressed. And any campaign you managed was not for a Republican. Nothing in your post, and I mean NOTHING, in any way changes my impression of Jeb Bush. You name these few things like they in some way impune his reputation. There is no governor in the country that could meet your lofty standards. You site Jeb's desire to strengthen his office as some reason not to vote for him? Is that the best you can do? You think Janet is a better option? You think surrendering the 4th most populus state in the country to the Democrats will do anything other than screw things up more?
I now return you to whatever lala land you are living in.

[caltrop]

Strengthening the Governor's office has been a long time liberal goal in Florida. It's clear, however, that you've no desire to be confused by the facts so I'll stop wasting your time and mine.

[summer]

caltrop, If true, then why didn't Chiles do that in the 8 years he was gov? I am genuinely curious as to your thoughts on this, as I know you've mentioned this point before. Also, the FL gov office was one of the weakest in the country before Gov Bush came into office -- and, BTW, it is still unique in this country, as I'm sure you know:

FL is the only state where a cabinet shares power with the gov. And, that is still true today.

[Lancey Howard]

This is exactly what I have feared from the beginning.
Reno is a stone-cold loser to Jeb and everybody knows it. Sure, plenty of rats would hold their nose and vote for Reno, but plenty more would sit the race out, or just vote for Jeb.

McBride, on the other hand, is the kind of unknown that rats might figure has a shot. You know, another "new kinda Democrat", ie., not your usual liberal scumbag Democrat. (Except of course, he is a liberal scumbag.)

In a Bush-Reno race, 22 percent of the Democrats would vote for Bush. In a Bush-McBride fight, 15 percent would choose Bush.

No surprise there.
I would say Republicans better wake up and do what they can to make sure Reno wins the primary. Then they can relax.

[Diddle E. Squat]

How stupid are you? Since Paul isn't Jesus, you'd rather let the devil win?

Since you feel Jeb isn't strong enough in fighting the Dems, you'd rather give the Dems 4 YEARS TO DO THEIR DESTRUCTION? That's like in the middle of a storm deciding that since the roof leaks in a couple of places, you'll just rip off the roof and go without one. In order to stop a few annoying raindrops, you are proposing getting totally drenched.