California: Times poll called skewed.

"Capitol Watch" email from California Political Review | October 3, 2002

[Coop]

No surprise here, but still an interesting read. Thanks

[BlackRazor]

I think you'll find this interesting, in light of what you posted the other day.

[tubebender]

BUMP...

[heleny]

Polling experts criticized the Times' projection that election turnout will favor Democrats by 13 percent, 53 to 40: four points more than Democrats' statewide registration advantage

So that's how the LAT inflated their poll numbers for all the democrats. Someone mentioned it on the first thread about the poll, too. I doubt that low turnout will necessarily help the democrats in a clean election, since they have such an unlikeable candidate. But, maybe the LAT is compensating for expected vote fraud in a low-turnout election.

I wonder whether the LAT "normalizing" method also had other unrealistic extrapolations. Lets say they normalized the Hispanic portion of responses to the census data of Hispanic people as a fraction of total population in the state instead of to the percent of registered voters who are Hispanic, which is lower but unknown. This would really help the democrats' numbers, too.

[dpwiener]

Thanks for the ping.