Talent leads Carnahan in Missouri Senate Race ZOGBY poll shows: 47.3% to 40.8%

St. Louis Post-Dispatch ^ | 10/13/2002 04:56 AM | Jo Mannies

[rface]

Sen. Jean Carnahan, D-Mo., may be caught in an anti- incumbency wave that's threatening members of Congress around the country.

Zogby International's latest poll, conducted last week for the Post-Dispatch, shows Carnahan trailing Republican Jim Talent 40.8 percent to 47.3 percent just three weeks after the last poll had Talent slightly behind.

[rface]

This is HUGE! Talent wins? then he takes the seat as soon as the election is certified (early November)- get ready for a huge court battle - US Supremes maybe.

also of interest:
President Bush to visit Springfield, Missouri on Oct. 18 to Support Jim Talent for Senate

Ashland, Missouri

[Mark Felton]

" may be caught in an anti- incumbency wave that's threatening members of Congress"

Nonsense. The "Pinko-Dispatch" has it wrong again. This is an "anti-Democrat wave".

They don't know the 'worst' of it yet. Many, Many Dems will be going down... Remember, pre-election polls always err in favor of the Democrats.

[UbIwerks]

Good riddance to the big itch. I remember how she voted against Ashcroft for confirmation even though Ashcroft could've should've contested her coming to the Senate.

[Teacher317]

Talent wins? then he takes the seat as soon as the election is certified (early November)- get ready for a huge court battle - US Supremes maybe

Another court battle? Well, that is the Dems latest MO. (pun intended!)

Personally, I don't see the Dems failing to cheat enough for this race in particular, and in the Senate majority race in general, but I can hope.

Bump for great news!

[JZoback]

This poll is not valid

They have not counted the democratic voting dead yet.

[Teacher317]

I'm personally enjoying the number of super-Lefties that are going down in flames. The Progressive Caucus (aka the Socialist Democrats of the US... not a joke, either) has lost 4 of its 57 members in the primaries alone, as well as two retirements. Election day could see up to 5 more, with several races in close contention. Personally, my biggest prayer is that Paul Wellstone (MN), the only Senator in the Caucus, will get shot down... but that one isn't as likely as most of the others.

I know there are a few around somewhere for the 6-8 Senate seats that are in play, but is anyone keeping a list of close contests in the House?

[Oldeconomybuyer]

Great news!

Dump the Widder!

[knuthom]

The poll surveyed 800 likely Missouri voters

Did they include all the likely democrat voters, including the dead, the non-existent, the illegal aliens and the multi-registered democrat voters?

[Wait4Truth]

I sure hope this is true! The only downside for me is that I have gotten to the point where I don't trust Zogby's numbers. He is an avowed Democrat, his brother worked with Gore and supports the Muslims, and I think he plays games with the polls. I fear his game this time is to show the Republicans winning, then after the RATS get to discuss the economy, social security, health care, etc., he can turn the polls around and say voters are turning away from Republicans because they don't care about bread-and-butter issues...call me a cynic but I believe Zogby works with the RATS at all times. And I still believe he knew just how much fraud to build into his polls in November of 2000.

[PGalt]

Good news bump. The Democratic Crime Syndicate should be voted into extinction as a political force in the United States of America, and members jailed when appropriate.

[bulldog905]

The race isn't over, yet.

Carnahan could always have a heart attack or something, and die before election day.

Brain-dead Democracts win all the time.

Literally dead Democrats, like her late husband, also have won.

[MattinNJ]

This just shows how biased Zogby is. There is no "anti-incumbent" wave. Larry Sabato was just on the Beltway Boys last night saying how 95-98% of incumbents will win. He predicted a net pickup of 1 Senate seat and 6 representatives for the pubbies.

[wotan]

He predicted a net pickup of 1 Senate seat and 6 representatives for the pubbies.

Is Larry factoring in Strom Thurmond's imminent demise?

[Alas Babylon!]

You got that right! In my opinion Zogby is, as the election date looms closer, starting to lay off his special sauce:

Even so, pollster John Zogby said the results reflect "a seismic shift" in voter sentiment because the two candidates' numbers are almost reverse of what they were in the late September poll. Then, 47.6 percent backed Carnahan while 40.3 percent favored Talent. (That poll had a slightly greater margin of error.)

I didn't trust those September numbers. And now the switch? Could it have been much closer in September, and Zogby was wrong then? Who knows? Can't wait untill the night of November 5th!

[FryingPan101]

YES!!!! (uhhh...can we trust Zogby?)

[ReleaseTheHounds]

This is great news but I'm sure the MO. machine will be fully engaged on election day (and way past the time the polls close) to make sure the outcome favors the Demo.

Did you notice that Mrs. Carnahan was given the "honor" of providing the Demo response to President Bush's weekly radio message? Her message slammed the Adminstration on economic issues (which is not unfair criticism, in my opinion, unfortunately) but her (and the Demos) only policy recommendation to combat these economic problems is to extend unemployment benefits another 13 weeks. What inspired policy work!

Two weeks ago, this "honor" was given to Robert Torricelli. I wonder what other criminals the Demos will come up with to promote in the remaining weeks before the election. What slime!

Here's hoping the GOP in Missouri, Minnesota, South Dakota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, etc. etc. get out in droves and bring the Senate back under GOP control so that we can get some decent judges voted on and a positive economic package (lower taxes for investors, especially) moving forward.

[Man of the Right]

Carnahan will lose because Missourians want a Senator, not a symbol of a dead, forgotten politician representing them.

[Congressman Billybob]

You have that right. Not only is there no "anti-incumbent wave" in this election, there has been no such wave in the 20th century except for 1932 when we were in the heart of the Great Depression. People will say, "Well, what about 1994, when the Republicans gained 56 seats and took back the House?" The interesting secret about that election is 90% OF THE HOUSE INCUMBENTS WON EVEN IN 1994.

The only reason the Republicans gained so many seats in 1994 is this: That was the ONLY election in American history when ALL the incumbent defeats were in only ONE party. Obviously, a single defeat going the other way costs the dominant party two seats -- one to make up the loss, and one for the opportunity to win that seat being lost.

For a thorough review of incumbency's power in House races, click the second link below, "Til Death...." It gives the turnover rates in the House from 1790 through projections for 2002.

Congressman Billybob

Click for "Oedipus and the Democrats"

Click for "Til Death Do Us Part."

Click for "to Restore Trust in America"

[Always Right]

YES!!!! (uhhh...can we trust Zogby?)

Zogby numbers are good, its the spin you gotta watch out for. I am a little surprised that he indicates the war played little part, but didn't Carnahan oppose the Iraq Resolution?

[kaylar]

As a Missourian, I agree with you : It doesn't matter how the people vote , the voting fraud in St Louis will be sufficient to override any and all honest votes.

I gave up on this state over Prop B. If I could leave it, I would. Almost 70% of the state of MO voted in favor OF CCW, but St Louis and KC voted against it. Those two urban cancers alone are so populous, their votes overcame the rest of the counties of this sparsely populated rural state combined.

[Always Right]

The only reason the Republicans gained so many seats in 1994 is this: That was the ONLY election in American history when ALL the incumbent defeats were in only ONE party.

Don't forget the reason why it was ONE party. Newt Gingrinch got voters excited and gave voters a reason to vote for the Republicans. That strong message is what is lacking on either side in this election.

[rface]

I would like someone to explain to me what happens in DC if/when Talent wins.

As I understand it, the winner of this Missouri election is the Senator as soon as the election is certified. Talent or Carnahan will serve the remainder of the term (4 more years.) Carnahan served 2 years so far because she is sitting in the seat of an elected Senator who is dead (her husband) - this is a "special election" because of this fact.

If Talent wins I expect a court battle here in Missouri because the 'RATS won't give up this seat without a fight.....

an interesting fact:
The chief Justice to Missouri's Supreme Court happens to be (are you ready for this........
Rush Limbaugh's Brother!....bwaaaaHAHAHAHA

click the picture

.....so what can and will Dasshole do to prevent Talent from taking his seat in the senate come election day?....Someone help me out with this question.

ASHLAND, MISSOURI!!!!!

[AmericaUnited]

My friends, this is part of TSUNAMI 02, as exhilarating as TSUNAMI 94 was!

[section9]

Oh come now.

Just because Zogby comes out with polls that we like to see doesn't mean that we start worshipping his results all of a sudden.

Let's wait till other trends confirm this. Let's also see if John Thune starts pulling ahead of Johnson in SD.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[rface]

I agree that we should wait for another poll to confirm this Zogby....but I bet(hope) that there are internal #s in the Talent camp the show this same trend.

Zogby has to know that publishing these kinds of #s will send Missouri 'RATS into a depression and also Missouri Pubbies into exhilaration. I cannot think of a good reason for Zogby to put out numbers like this without having a basis in fact for them.

[Montfort]

You have made my day with that bit of news. Rush Limbaugh's brother!!!

What a great family. His parents raised some fine children.

[ffrancone]

ping! Great news in the Missouri Senate race! This article has been posted to TakeBackCongress.org if you need to get back to it.

[Antoninus]

Nonsense. The "Pinko-Dispatch" has it wrong again. This is an "anti-Democrat wave". They don't know the 'worst' of it yet. Many, Many Dems will be going down... Remember, pre-election polls always err in favor of the Democrats.

I hope you're right. However, with the Dumbocrats as desperate as they are, I expect to see voter fraud like we never have before. I hope our friends in the GOP (sometimes known as "The Stupid Party) are ready for it. You'd think they'd be on red-alert after what almost happened in 2000 and the signals the cRats have been giving (like in NJ with the Torch switch-eroo).

As Freepers, we need to mobilize and do what we can to watch the polls and make sure the funny business is contained as much as possible.

[Reborn]

Don't get all excited by these polls. I live in St. Louis County and I'm telling you right now that the CITY of St. Louis will have "voting problems" on election night, and the Broward, oops I mean St. Louis CITY BLOCKHEAD IDIOTS will have to have the polls open LONGER so that their dogs and empty lots will have the chance to vote. What has been done about this?

[Mudboy Slim]

WOOOO-HOOOOOOOO!!!

Senate balance after 5 November 2002--well, technically after the Senate's seated in January--shall be 53 or 54 GOPers with both Zell Miller and John Breaux going independent and caucussing with the Pubbies by Spring '03!! November '04 will then result in a Filibuster-proof GOP majority and a second term fer Dubyuh!!

The worm is turning...

Quite Sincerely...MUD

[Eric in the Ozarks]

KMBC TV in KCMO reportedlast night the race was 48 % Talent, 47 % Carnahan, but I'm not sure where their figures came from. It would be Morning in America again if Wellstone (yuk) and Carnahan both got the boot November 6.
Perhaps Kit Bond is just mad enough, after the last voting debacle, to sick the FBI on the St. Louis elections board on election day... Now, that would keep the dead folks where they belong.

[scooby321]

The Feds are all over these Fraud actions

[Behind Liberal Lines]

....an anti- incumbency wave that's threatening members of Congress around the country.

Yeah, this is the first I have heard of an "anti incumbency wave." Methinks the St. Louis Post Dispatch is spinning a possible Dem loss.

[mdwakeup]

Pretty much nothing would happen in DC if Talent won. The Senate would have to adopt a new organizing resolution, or else Dems would stay in control of committees. But you can bet Dems would filibuster any proposed organizing resolution, which would take 60 votes to break. So the bottom line is probably wait until January for all the new Senators to be sworn in.

[Dave S]

call me a cynic but I believe Zogby works with the RATS at all times. And I still believe he knew just how much fraud to build into his polls in November of 2000.

Cynic! :-) Actually when he's on TV he is generally pretty matter of fact. His poll numbers have traditionally been right on. I think he is personally more concerned about getting the numbers right to ensure his companies viability than he is helping the Dems.

[Dave S]

Zogby numbers are good, its the spin you gotta watch out for. I am a little surprised that he indicates the war played little part, but didn't Carnahan oppose the Iraq Resolution

I live in Missouri and care and I dont know how she voted. Bush won big so I didnt care. I knew two years ago I was voting for Talent. Maybe that voters dont know how she voted. I do know that the Dems had her preside over the Senate during a good party of the debate/vote for TV face time.

[Ben Hecks]

This is great news - hope Zogby is right on this one. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think there is a consent agreement in effect in St. Louis which enables DoJ and the MO Sec State to closely monitor the election process. This could reduce voter fraud. (maybe that's reflected in Zogby's poll).

[Common Tator]

This may be the side effect of the New Jersey situation.

Remember that much of Missouri is rural. Rural people tend to be play by the rules people. A wife taking a husbands place when he dies has a long tradition in this part of the country. Thus her stepping in to fill the role of her husband was accepted and considered normal and natural. Plus the fact that Ashcroft accepted the situation reinforced the fact that Republicans play by the rules.

New Jersey would prove to as a few of the voters that Democrats don't play by the rules and will by their standards cheat. That may very well have a real backlash at the polls in other states if not New Jersey.

It may not be seven percent that feel that way but if it is even 2 or 3 percent that switch it may be enough to win Missouri.

I am not too high on Zogby until a day or two before an election. The pollsters with an agenda don't get accurate until voting time.

There are two factors to polling. The polled vote counts in the bellweather precincts and the turn out in those precincts. Where pollsters differ is not on the raw numbers. If both pollsters poll the registered likely voters in a precinct the raw numbers will be almost identical. But the differing numbers come from factoring in the turn out for example in inner city Democratic precincts vs. the turn out in rural or suburban Republican precincts is where the pollsters differ. In the final numbers Zogby tends to get the turn ours right. I think that is because he is good at predicting the Democrat get out the vote effort. Much of that is just from observation of what the democratic party and unions are actually doing. Many other pollsters use statistics to predict turn out. Variations in poll standing over the election cycle re not so much voters changing their opinions as it is voters deciding to vote or not vote.

The 2000 election was the best get out the left vote effort in history. Gore got 51 million votes even as Ralph nader got 2.8 million more. The right turn out was fantastic too but it was only 51 million. There were 3 million more votes for the left than there were for the right. There are fewer right leaning voters than their are left leaning. That is just a fact and we must live with it and deal with it.

But I know from experience that getting out the Democratic vote is a huge job. Motivating Republicans to voe is a lot easier than it is to motivate Democrats. Say what you will about Al Gore as a candidate, but he got his voters to the polls. Some may have had to get out of a casket to do it... but Al got his people to the polls to vote. This year at least in Ohio the Democrat effort is not what it was in 2000. The Democrat effort is good, but it is not close to the 2000 effort. If that be the case all over the nation, then turn out figures based on the normal percent drop from a presidential year to an off year election may not apply. That may overstate democratic turn out. The Democrat turn out may not be as good as some pollsters expect.

I don't think the Democats or the media understand it, but media bias motivates republicans... It does not motivate democrats.

If that does turn out to be a lower democrat turn out than the normal drop off in a non presidential year, then this could be a pretty good year for Republicans.

I would very much like to see what the numbers are for other polls from the last few days. It would be wonderful to see the internal polls.

One thing for certain. If this poll is right, the Carnahan campaign will switch gears. Different ads with a different approach will tell you she thinks she is behind.

There ia an old saw that is pretty true.

When what a Candidate is doing is working they just keep on doing it. When what a candidate is doing is not working, they change what they are doing.

[Dog Gone]

Zogby has the knack for getting the polls right just before the election. I'll be very interested to see what he reports around November 1.

[rface]

well.....even if the Pubbies get a majority of the Senate Seats, that still doesn't make 60 votes come January. What prevents the 'RATS from ignoring an organizing resolution in January?

WHat happens if there is important business for the Senate to do in Nov and Dec. .....like a war in Iraq. Will the 'RATS continue a filibuster in an atmosphere like that?

[Dave S]

I gave up on this state over Prop B. If I could leave it, I would. Almost 70% of the state of MO voted in favor OF CCW, but St Louis and KC voted against it. Those two urban cancers alone are so populous, their votes overcame the rest of the counties of this sparsely populated rural state combined.

Poor boy. At least in your part of the state you dont even need to lock your doors at night. Face it, the anti CCW out marketed us.

[Illbay]

Dick Morris stated on Laura Ingraham's radio show last week, that an incumbent who does not break 50% this close to an election is toast--and I trust Zogby.

The thinking is that the incumbent does not suffer from name-recognition deficit, and those who are "uncommitted" this close to the election probably just won't vote.

FWIW, he used the same rationale to predict that Lautenberg may lose in NJ.

[Theodore R.]

If the party labels were reversed an a Carnahan "victory" were to tilt the Senate to the Democrats on Nov. 6, it would be a formality. There would not even be discussion of the matter. But if Talent wins, the Daschle forces will levy all their might, with their media allies, to prevent Talent's seating until Jan. 3. I am also fearful that T. Lott won't be "up to the job" of getting Talent seated in early November.

[madrastex]

The race isn't over, yet.

Carnahan could always have a heart attack or something, and die before election day.

If this happens, she will win anyway

[A Citizen Reporter]

Carnahan voted for the Iraq resolution. Which told me that she might be in trouble. However, I would never rely on Zogby poll for anything.

[copycat]

The Feds are all over these Fraud actions

I should hope so!! After the Torricelli ploy and keeping the polls open in St' Louis last cycle, you can bet the Dems are going to play hardball in each election in which they have a chance to win.

Remember in 2000, the D's defied long odds to take EVERY close election for the Senate.

[Ditter]

Great news!

[Always Right]

Carnahan voted for the Iraq resolution. Which told me that she might be in trouble. However, I would never rely on Zogby poll for anything.

I still think Zogby numbers tend to be pretty good especially compared to other pollsters, but he is one of the worst analysts out there.

[kaylar]

I'm a girl as one look at my profile would have showed, and are you insane!!??!! OF course you have to lock your doors at night out here. Good grief, some cops and POs have told me that I'd be amazed if I knew just how many houses in my little town are known and suspected meth houses. As the rural counties decline economically due to factory shutdowns, moves overseas, and the firing of local workers in favor of imported workers, the crime rate rise, especially since meth production is what's putting food on quite a few people's tables.I had a girl from CA tell me that she was amazed at the sheer number of people she saw in public who were "tweaking".

The figures I've seen state that well over 60% of MO voted for Prop B, but KC and St Louis were against it, and their votes alone overrid the rest of MO. And I don't believe money or publicity was the key. The people who were against Prop B had their minds made up, and no ads would have been able to overcome the 'guns are evil' brainwashing.

Fortunately, this state has certain people who are automatically allowed CCW licenses if they choose to apply. My DH is entitled to one, and as his spouse, so am I. So it's not a problem for us, but it makes me sick to think of the rest of the people given a choice between being unarmed prey or a criminal if they choose to believe their lives are worth protecting.

[copycat]

WHat happens if there is important business for the Senate to do in Nov and Dec. .....like a war in Iraq. Will the 'RATS continue a filibuster in an atmosphere like that?

Staring at a loss of power due to a Talent win? Absolutely.