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Posted on 10/17/2002 6:36:10 PM PDT by Dog Gone
WASHINGTON (AP) -- North Korea's declared determination to become the world's eighth nuclear power has prompted a flurry of U.S. diplomatic activity as the Bush administration, its policy of engagement with Pyongyang having run aground, ponders its next steps.
Undersecretary of State John Bolton met Thursday with officials in China, a major trading partner of North Korea's and perhaps the one country capable of extracting concessions from the communist nation through economic sanctions, an administration official said.
At the White House, reporters were told the Chinese were stunned upon learning of North Korea's acknowledgment to U.S. officials that it was pursuing a nuclear weapons program.
A U.S. delegation had confronted North Korea with evidence gathered over the last several months, including recent bills of sale, that Pyongyang had been working to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons. That equipment most likely was part of a gas centrifuge program to separate the weapons-grade uranium from ordinary fuel-grade uranium, private analysts said Thursday.
North Korea's earlier nuclear efforts relied on plutonium, which makes smaller, lighter bombs but is much more difficult to produce and work with than enriched uranium.
White House spokesman Scott McClellan said President Bush believes North Korea's admission is ``troubling, sobering news.'' He said Bush is seeking a peaceful solution.
Privately, White House officials said Bush and his senior advisers decided to confront the problem in a low-key fashion. Bush, for example, made no public statements on it Thursday.
Stressing the diplomatic approach, national security adviser Condoleezza Rice said, ``I think were going to see that no one wants to have a nuclear-armed North Korea and that effective international pressure may have an effect on North Korea.''
Rice suggested it would be a mistake to equate the situation in North Korea with that of Iraq, a country the United States is contemplating using force to disarm.
``We've tried everything with Saddam Hussein. Nothing has worked,'' she said.
China, Russia, Japan and South Korea are among the countries which have a stake in a nuclear-free North Korea, Rice said in an interview taped for the Thursday edition of ABC's ``Nightline.''
Secretary of State Colin Powell told a news conference in New York the United States was not planning military action against North Korea at present.
The North Koreans told U.S. officials earlier this month that they no longer consider valid a 1994 agreement with the United States under which Pyongyang promised to renounce nuclear weapons.
It was not clear to U.S. officials whether the North actually has a nuclear capability or whether it is still in development. At a minimum, North Korea apparently is close to joining the United States, China, Russia, Britain, France, India and Pakistan as declared nuclear powers. Israel is thought to have hundreds of nuclear warheads but has never confirmed it has a nuclear weapons program.
Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld told a Pentagon press conference that he believes the North Koreans not only have a weapons program but have already produced some weapons.
He cited an intelligence report in which the CIA said North Koreans ``may have one or two,'' and added, ``I believe they have a small number of nuclear weapons.''
Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., said North Korea must allow international inspections of their nuclear facilities and must agree to destroy whatever weapons of mass destruction they have.
``Pyongyang's reckless brinkmanship must be met with firm and united resolve by the allies of freedom and democracy,'' said Rep. Henry Hyde, R-Ill., chairman of the House International Relations Committee.
U.S. officials said they believe a nuclear-armed North Korea would alarm China because it would prompt Japan, China's historic rival, to carry out a military buildup of its own, forcing China to respond in kind.
After his meetings in China, Bolton also planned to travel to Russia, Britain and France to discuss how to bring pressure to bear on North Korea.
Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly was in Beijing with Bolton and planned subsequent stops in Japan and South Korea.
Kelly led the U.S. delegation to Pyongyang from Oct. 3-5 that confronted North Korean officials with information that the North was developing nuclear weapons in violation of the 1994 agreement.
At first the North Koreans denied the allegation but then acknowledged at the final meeting, on Oct. 4, that Kelly's contention was correct.
Powell said the North Koreans tried to blame the United States for their decision to renege on their promises.
But, Powell said, ``we pointed out to them that this violation of theirs preceded this administration and has been going on for years.''
As for why the North Koreans made the admission, Henry Sokolski of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, said Pyongyang may see the bombs as a deterrent against a pre-emptive strike by the United States. Also, he suggested, Pyongyang may reason it can get away with the disclosure now because the United States is too focused on Iraq to take action.
At the meeting, the North Koreans' demeanor and tone was especially belligerent and vitriolic, a separate U.S. official said, but added that they made no threat against any specific country. Instead, they uttered vague threats such as, ``We will meet the sword with the sword.''
Even without nuclear weapons, North Korea boasts a formidable military establishment. It has chemical and biological weapons deployed near the Demilitarized Zone and its troop strength is the fifth-largest in the world, with more than 1.17 million personnel, according to Pentagon estimates. It also has 200-300 interceptors and attack aircraft, including the MiG-21s and MiG-23s.
Even though the North Korea repudiated the 1994 agreement, the Bush administration was not ready to announce its death, preferring to consult with other countries first.
Officials said the administration is talking with allies about shutting down a program under which the United States provides North Korea with 500,000 tons of heating oil annually.
The program is designed to help North Korea meet its energy needs during a transition period before the planned construction of two light water nuclear reactors, with financing mostly by South Korea and Japan.
Those reactors were also part of the 1994 deal to bring about a nuclear weapons-free North Korea but that plan seems certain to be scrapped because of Wednesday's disclosures about Pyongyang's weapons plans.
TONIGHT! 6pm PDT/9pm EDT Unspun With AnnaZ and Guest Hostess DIOTIMA!
ELECTIONS and OMISSIONS!
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Meaning a challenge to the Chinese to step up.
Same here. Not even remotely surprised.
Herr Klinton and that ugly windbag halfbright sold us a bill of goods.
That doesn't stun me either.
They "governed" just as a commie mole would.
We will never serioulsy contemplate a pre-emptive strike on North Korea; different culture, different logistics, and a completely and thoroughly brainwashed population. We will just hope they go away.
Look out! If it comes down to military action, it would be sudden and amazing. N Kor is on the edge of disaster, and it is up to them to realize this. They got creamed last time they tried military action until volunteers came flooding in from China to rescue their 'cousins.'
No one is actually stunned, but former Clinton admin staff is in denial, an early coping stage.
Bush ain't stunned. He put NK in the "Axis of Evil" for a reason.
The AP doesn't get it.
Nor does the word "Carter". He was the weasley bastard that convinced Clinton that the North Koreans could be trusted.
And he gets a Nobel Peace Prize for his perfidy. And he doesn't reject it.
Apparently so. He knows a lot that he hasn't seen necessary or advisable to pass on to the general public. Clinton also knew more than he let on. Bush is being straight with everybody, and Clinton wasn't, that's a big difference.
Also, it appears that no one on this thread is stunned, which is not stunning.
A weak inspection system is going to fail quicker.
If you think N. Korea just trumped the US, you have a mindset that requires additional study.
Wonder what the Chicoms would let us get away with in N. Korea?
He also continued the program of supplying them with nucluer material that Bubba-1 originated. Seems like the last time this was done was only a couple of weeks ago.
The author really missed the point on this story. We weren't stunned - we've had satellite intelligence on this for years. The Chinese weren't stunned at the nuclear program, they've been paying for it. But they were stunned that the North Koreans told anyone, especially without talking it over first with their paymasters. That is extremely significant.
It tells me that Kim is attempting to assert a little independence here and that he may already have a bomb or some bombs, perhaps even more than the Chinese know. If so the Chinese will find out and they will not be pleased. North Korea is putting the move on South Korea and Japan here, and playing the U.S. and China off against one another. The Chinese want Taiwan and we want a nuclear-free North Korea. The North Koreans are betting that a compromise will result in neither China nor the U.S. getting their way. Interesting ploy - it can continue for quite some time in that little state of stasis, as long as the Chinese figure they have more to gain vis a vis Taiwan than they do to lose by stomping on the North Koreans to bring them back into the fold.
Now, if we and the Chinese ever get together on this the game is over very quickly, but I suspect the Chinese value the North Koreans more as a thorn in the U.S. side than they feel threatened by its possessing nuclear weapons. But they are neighbors with these lunatics and we are not. They may well find that they'll lose enough control to go over from socialist solidarity to a MAD standoff with their former clients. From there it gets interesting.
They already are having problems with NK over an economic zone NK established on the border which they view as a threat. I don't understand it fully, but the Chinese are hot about it, and they're trying to prosecute Chinese citizens on tax evasion charges.
The Chinese are not going to be happy with a new nuclear neighbor. North Korea is stalinist, maybe even more so than Stalin himself. And they are a loose cannon. China can't be sure that a NK nuke won't end up being sold to a dissident group within China. They can't be sure, because the North Koreans do not behave rationally. At least they haven't to date.
I think the discussions coming up between Bush and Jiang will be extremely important and I doubt we'll learn much of what transpires directly. We will be able to deduce it within the next year.
Don't believe me? Go to google and type in a search with only the following three words:
North Korea 1993
Wake up people.
It's okay for them to have nukes today because they threatened to try to develop them in 1993?
At the White House, reporters were told the Chinese were stunned upon learning of North Korea's acknowledgment to U.S. officials that it was pursuing a nuclear weapons program.
It is beyond comprehension, because it's not true. We knew they had nukes. We confronted them. They lied. We told them we had proof. They told the truth. The same pressitutes who are making a big deal out of this were the same airheads that were stunned when Bush included N. Korea in the "Axis of Evil."
The headline is misleading, the article is deliberately obscure, but you really have to read past the headline, and remember who was President in 1994.
When Billyjeff Clinton made his phony "peace" deal with North Korea I thought it was a made-to-order failure, like Nevil Chamberlain's "peace" deal with Adolf Hitler in 1938. Maybe the writer of this article was stunned. If so, he is a geopolitical moron.
Congressman Billybob
Clinton , on NBC's Meet the Press, also declined to rule out a pre-emptive strike against North Korea 's nuclear facilities, from which international observers have been banned.
Ah, yes, the usual from The Stainmaker. And what was the result of this little problem?
Jimmy Carter mysteriously appeared in North Korea with a breakthrough - supposedly something that was totally unknown to Clinton and his toad minions - concerning this very problem! How very convenient!
Carter set up deal whereby the North Korean communists would agree to stop research on their nuclear missile program (without any inspections that could be problematic), then we would help them with a few nuclear reactors, and Clinton and his pals could get back to setting up the logistics of funneling illegal campaign cash from communist China to the DNC.
It's all very nice, isn't it? And now? Carter gets a Nobel and The Stainmaker can continue flying around the globe ducking responsibility for all of it.
The bastards should be exiled to North Korea.
I've been saying it for years, and I've been saying it here at FR recently - North Korea is by far the most dangerous nation in the world right now. We won't be able to deal with them the way we have dealt with Iraq in the early 90s, and have been talking about dealing with them for the last several months. DPRK is a whole different game.
Then, BTW, there are the other troublesome nations: Libya (yes, Qadaffi is still in charge, and he's still unpredictable, and he still hates America), Iran, Syria, Pakistan, Sudan, Cuba (they still try to export the "Revolution"), China, and even Russia is disturbingly unreliable. On top of this, terrorists are numerous and everywhere. We have supported and strengthened them in Kosovo. Things are far from over (in fact never will be over) in Afghanistan. Haiti is still being Haiti.
Before we occupy any other countries, I think we need to think about pulling out of a couple. The only other alternative is to build up such a massive military that everyone in the United States is required to serve a year or two at a certain age. Can we afford that, in terms of economics or liberty? Would such a military be reliable? Would such a military be American? Will we really reduce the threat of terrorism by occupying more countries in the Middle East?
I believe we are slowly committing suicide, nationally. Theoretically, I wouldn't mind if we took over the world's oil supply, because in a lot of cases we have a strong case that the oil is ours, and does not belong to a bunch of backwards, cruel, Satan-worshipping camel jockeys who only frustrated our efforts to find it and tap it. But I'm concerned about what is best for us, in terms of the combination of security and liberty. I think our policies are minimizing both, instead of optimizing that combination.
One more thing: I don't trust anything anyone appointed or advanced by Bill Clinton says about anything (Tenet, and yes, Mueller).
And what has this woman been studying the last four decades??? North Korea, yield to international pressure, all of a sudden?
And why do supposedly trained journalists write the word we're as "were?"
Now, where did we put those plans for the peacekeeper missile, looks like its time to replace the MMIII's with nice shiny new Peacekeeper II,s? Looks like the ABM program is spot on. Some much for the dummycrats whining about the cost. Hey tommy and friends, the ABM stuff not for sadam, its for kim.
As for the danger of NK, I quite agree that it is a evil regime and I have been in favor of doing something about it for a long time. Certainly back to Clinton's capitulation and tribute-paying arrangement from the early 90s.
As for the idea that we are overextended in empire not republic terms and all of that, to me it does not sit particularly well with the realistic assessment of NK that you obviously "get". NK being a dangerous mess is not a reason to sit back and prepare to be nuked, it is a reason to clean up said mess. Such problems counsel forward engagement not isolation.
Are we as a country awake to everything such forward engagement is likely to entail, as a policy? No, there I quite agree with you. Or rather, only a minority here is. Will it require a giant conscript military? No, military technique has moved on and the giant conscript armies of the first half of the 20th century are no longer the decisive form of military power. They will not be needed to deal with the threats from the periphery. Is our current professional military living off of capital and understaffed? Yes. Because we dramatically reduced its funding over the last decade while simultaneously increasing its mission commitments, as we planned for post cold war peace and tranquility but post war disorder and chaos appeared instead.
How much are we talking here? Everyone serving in the military? No. Giant portions of the economy spent on defense? Not unless 5-6% is giant. We are spending a lower portion of our economy on defense than at any time since Pearl Harbor, 3.5%. Actually, it hit 3% before 9-11 and even the pro-military Bush administration did not plan to significantly increase defense funding, until 9-11.
A serious buildup, in terms of what it would deliver in the way of capability to deal with these sorts of threats, would be perfectly feasible as 0.5% of GDP increases per year over one presidential term. The idea that we can't possibly afford such a thing is to me obviously silly - it is a matter of 1/6th of average economic growth for a short period of time being put to that purpose instead of others. We haven't made such a decision, but it is fully within our capabilities if we do so.
Next there is the issue of what pressure can do to North Korea. I think it can do quite a lot, a lot more than you seem to imagine. You think it is ridiculous because it is such an intransigent and evil regime and has resisted outside civilizing influences for decades - which is certainly true. It is also true that the policy that has been applied to them is consistent appeasement and coddling, along with as low a profile as possible. Partly in deferrence to South Korean wishes in the matter, partly to sooth Japanese fears, partly because of Chinese or Russian interference and support, largely because no one in this country wanted to refight the Korean war.
But the craziness of the regime is a weakness, not a strength, if a far more active form of pressure is applied. That craziness makes it singularly unattractive to its citizens and would-be supporters, and change (in the obvious nationalist form of future unification with the richer south) potentially inviting. And it also should allow the formation of an international consensus against them, one that even China would be unwilling to "buck".
What could be do with a more active policy agreed on by all of those countries? Plenty. We could confront the NKs not once in a blue moon but daily. We could flood propaganda into the country aggressively. We could take all defectors instead of shoveling those who cross the Chinese border back to famine and repression. We could cut off all forms of aid, and reduce the country to a desert within a few years - but won't, out of humanitarian concern for the populace. Instead we could let in food only. We could insist on inspectors and aid workers accompanying that food to distribute it, and dare the NKs to shoot them instead. We can offer large financial rewards to defectors, along with sanctuary, and promise even more for anyone who successfully changes the regime by any means, iron or poison. We can prowl off their coast line daily with warships they cannot hope to confront without immediate destruction, instead of backing away from every gunboat to avoid "incidents". We can overfly the country, spray leaflets, air drop food parcels randomly. If desired, we can support rebels within the country or insert our own or South Korean special operations teams.
We don't do such things now because our policy has been appeasement, aka try not to make the lunatics mad. An aggressive confrontational policy would instead dare them to go to war, defy them constantly, get in their face, shove levers between their rulers and their populace, and generally make their rulers' lives hell. While promising their rank and file the moon if they desert or surrender or stage a coup if ordered to march against the south, and promising them swift violent death if they instead obey any such orders. NK would not be able to withstand such pressure by merely being intransigent and evil. They might risk an attack on the south and a general military confrontation - or they might not. But they would not be able to just sit there and take it for long.
Obviously, all of the above are things we can choose to use or not. We can choose the timing, when we are particularly ready to stop appeasing and start harassing and after preparation with allies, etc. NK is not a powerful state in the grand scheme of things. Dangerous yes, but able to withstand the combined multifaceted power of the US, Japan, South Korea without superpower support of their own - not remotely.
I am sympathetic to your overall sense that the US is getting pulled into many overseas commitments and does not seem to be awake to what that will involve. I disagree with you about avoiding that burden - I don't think we really can. But you are right that it is more serious than many here understand, or than our current defense budget is prepared for in the long run, and that it ought to be faced realistically, with open eyes about how large a task it all really is. Some will undoubtedly recoil from the size of the task when they see it, and agree with you on the subject. I'm not one of those. I agree it is bigger than many respect, and think that means we should get serious about it, not run away from it.
For what it is worth...
First, I think I did unfairly categorize Rumsfield's remarks as surprise.
Second, when we talk about North Korea, China is the biggest problem. They will always be a problem in our dealings with North Korea (or the Middle East, for that matter) because they truly are our rivals, in every way.
Third, my understanding of North Korea, based on reading and a friend who is in China trying to relieve the starvation and spiritual condition of North Koreans, is that the brainwashing is so thorough that even defectors are intensely patriotic toward the regime (as crazy as that sounds). They actually have come to worship their leaders, and being converted out of that religion is very difficult. They are deeply conditioned to see all truth as lies. Their isolation and constant propaganda, and details about their culture which have made this conditioning so effective, has made the population of North Korea perhaps the most brainwashed in history. I don't believe this is the case so much with Hussein, Qaddaffi, and the ME despots. I believe a rebellion, or resistance, inside NK is completely impossible. Perhaps rigorous efforts in propaganda (for the truth, of course) is the most important action we could take now. But that will be a tough, uphill battle. Of course, the existence of South Korea makes this a more hopeful effort.
Finally, I don't think our demise as a nation, if God does not mercfully avert it, will come from the outside anyway. I think it is already happening on the inside.
Thousands of Islamic potential terrorists are already living amongst us.
Half the country can defend the snuffing out of life in the womb (even when just the head is legalistially still in the womb), and half the voters strongly support one of the most criminal enterprises in the world today - the Democratic Party. They know they're criminals, and deep down that's why they support them. The Republican Party is becoming more and more like them, and seem to be urged by their base and leadership to go that direction.
I LOVE Mexicans, and have made friends with many, but they are overtaking our culture, and do not have the historical foundation and understanding and committment to liberty that has built this nation. They have much to contribute to American culture, but if the immigration is not controlled, and they are encouraged to not assimilate, it furthers America's cultural decline, and does nothing in the long run to help the Mexicans.
If these trends in insanity, disunity, and cultural degradation continue, America cannot stand. The inevitable results will be either a chaotic civil war (with who knows what final outcome), or a brutal police state. Either one of those outcomes means the end of America. If we become a police state, we are n longer America, but a sad, nightmarish land that used to be where America was. The reason I say all this is to say that our foreign policy is a mess, but that it is only one factor in the demise of our country, just as it was with the Roman Empire.
We can only do what we can to turn things around. May God have mercy and make our efforts fruitful. Good "talking" with you.
It is not in China's interests for Japan to rearm, and in particular to deploy an independent nuclear deterrent. But NK nukes and missles strongly push Japan toward taking that step. Which they have all the technical means for, incidentally. China has in the past discouraged nukes for NK largely because of this - also because they do not want a less than predictable client to have its own "key" (any more than Kruschev wanted to leave a launch decision to Castro, who incidentally would have).
China does not want NK to have its own nukes, and threaten Japan, and prompt Japanese re-armament, or threaten to drag China into a war at a time and place not of China's choosing. China would have problems with a unified Korea. But nothing like the problems it would have with a nuclear Japan. So on this issue, NK is more isolated than on any other.
As for the level of propaganda and brainwashing, I know NK is a deified state. But I notice that such things have fallen apart rather more easily than often predicted, when defeat punctured the illusion of invincibility around the ruler. I agree there is no prospect of a popular uprising in NK on their own. Palace coups are, however, always possible in tyrannies, especially when defeat in foreign war threatens if a given tyrant's course is maintained. We have not been putting much pressure on, or sending in much truthful propaganda - as you say, that is probably the first order of business if we choose to stop appeasing and start confronting the NK regime. I for one think we should - think we should have quite some time ago, in fact.
As for the general declinism and cultural rot stuff, I am not so pessimistic as you, but I agree about a number of the problems you mention. To me, though, "declinism" is itself a "foreign import" and symptom - I might even say a pagan idea. Chesterton speaking of the vitality of the west says somewhere that it has died many times, but that Christian things have this uncanny way of not staying dead. It is a good line lol. His point more simply stated is that we have come through much bleaker passages before, many times.
By the evidence of mere history, sure one would expect the present drift of things to lead toward a more centralized US state, combined with a professional military involved in holding actions across the world. That need not be any violently repressive tyranny, but there is certainly a danger in that direction (a more likely one than civil war, incidentally - the US left does not have it in its belly, as presently constituted anyway). The age of the Antonines was not the reign of Caligula. Also, by any objective measure, the sins of late Rome were far beyond anything that ails us yet.
But I am not even that pessimistic. I do believe in American exceptionalism, whether one sees it on something like Chesterton's basis or simply on a "whig" one, Madison's "trial" of whether mankind is capable of self-government, or Lincoln's "last best hope". We may confound the pessimistic historians and combine republicanism - of perhaps only attenuated virtue, to be sure - with a relatively soft world dominance and a measure of sophisticated rottenness.
In the end, though, it is not a matter of fortune telling, but a matter of action by us.
"I tell you naught for your comfort
Yea, naught for your desire
Save that the sky grows darker yet
and the sea rises higher"
GK Chesterton, the Ballad of the White Horse
http://www.dur.ac.uk/martin.ward/gkc/books/white-horse2.html
Officials said the administration is talking with allies about shutting down a program under which the United States provides North Korea with 500,000 tons of heating oil annually.
COMMISSION TO ASSESS THE BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES
--- Snip ---
a. North KoreaCommission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United StatesThere is evidence that North Korea is working hard on the Taepo Dong 2 (TD-2) ballistic missile. The status of the system's development cannot be determined precisely. Nevertheless, the ballistic missile test infrastructure in North Korea is well developed. Once the system is assessed to be ready, a test flight could be conducted within six months of a decision to do so. If North Korea judged the test to be a success, the TD-2 could be deployed rapidly. It is unlikely the U.S. would know of such a decision much before the missile was launched. This missile could reach major cities and military bases in Alaska and the smaller, westernmost islands in the Hawaiian chain. Light-weight variations of the TD-2 could fly as far as 10,000 km, placing at risk western U.S. territory in an arc extending northwest from Phoenix, Arizona, to Madison, Wisconsin. These variants of the TD-2 would require additional time to develop and would likely require an additional flight test.
North Korea has developed and deployed the No Dong, a medium-range ballistic missile 3 (MRBM) using a scaled-up Scud engine, which is capable of flying 1,300 km. With this missile, North Korea can threaten Japan, South Korea and U.S. bases in the vicinity of North Korea. North Korea has reportedly tested the No Dong only once, in 1993. The Commission judges that the No Dong was operationally deployed long before the U.S. Government recognized that fact. There is ample evidence that North Korea has created a sizable missile production infrastructure, and therefore it is highly likely that considerable numbers of No Dongs have been produced.
In light of the considerable difficulties the Intelligence Community encountered in assessing the pace and scope of the No Dong missile program, the U.S. may have very little warning prior to the deployment of the Taepo Dong 2.
North Korea maintains an active WMD program, including a nuclear weapon program. It is known that North Korea diverted material in the late 1980s for at least one or possibly two weapons. North Korea's ongoing nuclear program activity raises the possibility that it could produce additional nuclear weapons. North Korea also possesses biological weapons production and dispensing technology, including the capability to deploy chemical or biological warheads on missiles.
North Korea also poses a major threat to American interests, and potentially to the United States itself, because it is a major proliferator of the ballistic missile capabilities it possesses--missiles, technology, technicians, transporter-erector-launchers (TELs) and underground facility expertise--to other countries of missile proliferation concern. These countries include Iran, Pakistan and others.
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