Nutso State has Nukes

National Revenue Online ^ | 10/22/2002 | John Derbyshire

[Mitchell]

I responded too quickly to your last post. I was, of course, referring to Stalin's terror as the era of irrationality from which the current Russia has emerged.

Stalin was irrational in much the same way as Mao (murderous and cruel beyond belief, eternally suspicious, and, at the policy level, sticking to provably failed policies that led to, for example, famine and extreme social disruption). These people obviously weren't completely crazy in the sense that they couldn't function in society; they were personally very successful in achieving their warped goals, they could think logically about military and political strategy, and they were not suicidal. But they were insane by any normal standard.

[Mitchell]

Ever read "One Point Safe"?

No, I haven't. What's it about?

[Mitchell]

the Russians seem reluctant to open the archives on Stalin's terrors.

I just came across something called Revelations from the Russian Archives. It's a collection of documents at the Library of Congress which starts to get into some of the information newly available on Soviet history.

[Poohbah]

It's about how bad the stockpile security problem is in Russia.

[Mitchell]

It's about how bad the stockpile security problem is in Russia.

Yes, it's bad. And with the proliferation of nuclear weapons to other unstable countries, the long-term security problem is becoming worse and worse.

[Poohbah]

Just think...20,000 "physics packages" guarded by people who haven't been paid in a year.

[babyface00]

What's surprising to me, is that one hasn't been acquired and detonated already by some fanatics.

Of course, one of the inherent problems with nuclear weapons is that, if you only have one, and you detonate it, then you don't have much of a bargaining position afterwards, and a lot of people are really angry at you.

This problem doesn't, unfortunately, concern your average Islamic fanatic.

[hchutch]

Yeah... and that ain't the only stuff that's been less guarded.

Back in 1998, someone bought an operable Scud missile with everything but the warhead. Bill Gertz had that story, IIRC.

How long have other folks not been paid? Hmm... I wonder if I can get that Su-30MK and Ka-52 that I've always wanted (Cessna's just don't do it for me - I got a need for speed). Rummy wouldn't mind, would he?

[Mitchell]

Just think...20,000 "physics packages" guarded by people who haven't been paid in a year.

And all someone needs is one.

[Poohbah]

The line that movie came from--the one with George Clooney and Nicole Kidman--was inspired by One Point Safe.

[Poohbah]

Of course, one of the inherent problems with nuclear weapons is that, if you only have one, and you detonate it, then you don't have much of a bargaining position afterwards, and a lot of people are really angry at you.

Too bad we showed everyone how to do it in 1945: bluff like crazy.

[sharktrager]

When it was clear, and as China advanced from nuclear to thermonuclear status, the issue of preemption arose again, this time among the decision makers of Brezhnev's U.S.S.R. In late 1969, a Soviet diplomat in Washington made discreet inquiries among officials of the Nixon administration as to what U.S. reaction might be to a Soviet nuclear strike against China. The responses were entirely negative — Nixon was already cooking up his opening to China — and the matter was dropped, Brezhnev apparently being unwilling to go ahead without U.S. support. The option was probably unrealistic at this point in any case, the Chinese having already manufactured a number of nukes and dispersed them around the country.

What a huge missed opportunity. First he should have said "no problem" to Russia, then he should have picked up the phone..."Hey Mao, guess what I have to tell you..."

[sharktrager]

No sane person supervises the deaths of at least 30 million people.

[Poohbah]

In a clinical sense, he may have been crazy.

In a real-world sense, he was probably the sanest of the players in World War II. He knew what he wanted, why he wanted it, and went about getting it.

[Poohbah]

What a huge missed opportunity. First he should have said "no problem" to Russia, then he should have picked up the phone..."Hey Mao, guess what I have to tell you..."

You know why it's called "international relations," right?

It's because it consists of nations trying to screw each other :o)

[dead]

[sharktrager]

Actually, I would argue that the extent to which Churchill played Roosevelt and the United States shows a degree of cunning that surpasses Stalin.

Stalin did work to achieve what he wanted, but he did not do so in an extremely clever manner. Churchill, on the other hand, utilized misdirection and deception to achieve what he desired. He also was extremely effective at persuading the alliedleaders to undertake military actions designed to improve the view of the British military (although the performance of their generals often showed dissapointing results for his efforts.)

Ultimately, the least clever of the leaders was clearly Roosevelt, and Truman was not an improvement.

[hchutch]

I have to agree. And he didn't let anything stop him, either.

[GOPJ]

Annual tax -- per country, per nuke. One nuke will break the average bank, less per nuke after the first 100. Proceeds used to offset the cost of major countries saving the behinds of countries invaded by oil grabbers, thugs, etc. This is NOT to be administered by the UN. Administered by a joint group consisting of the US, the Brits, Australia, and Russia.

[secretagent]

From your link:

The willingness of the new Russian Archival Committee under Pikhoya to cooperate in preparing this exhibit with the Library of Congress dramatizes the break that a newly democratic Russia is attempting to make with the entire Soviet past. They are helping to turn material long used for one-sided political combat into material for shared historical investigation in the post-Cold War era.

I hope they can keep going with this project.