"Two issues are at the center of the controversy. First is the risk to health posed by the smallpox vaccine itself. ... The second is whether immunizing the general public can wait until after a terrorist attack."
Posted on 11/01/2002 10:40:53 AM PST by Sabertooth
HEARTLAND INSTITUTE
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"Two issues are at the center of the controversy. First is the risk to health posed by the smallpox vaccine itself. ... The second is whether immunizing the general public can wait until after a terrorist attack." |
Smallpox Vaccine Controversy Grows
Administration considers making 'pre-attack' smallpox vaccinations available to general public
Author: Joseph Bast
Published: The Heartland Institute 11/01/2002
The Bush administration is about to announce a major shift in policy regarding vaccinating the general population against smallpox in case of a terrorist attack. The new policy could make the vaccine available to every American, not only health workers, in advance of a terrorist attack.
Smallpox, along with anthrax, plague, and botulism, is a deadly virus experts believe could be used as a weapon of mass destruction by terrorists. The last case of smallpox in the U.S. was diagnosed in 1971, and routine smallpox vaccination stopped in the U.S. in 1972. Smallpox is estimated to be fatal to one-third of unvaccinated individuals exposed to the virus. (See "Smallpox Facts," page 5.)
An Evolving Policy
Shortly after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, government sources reported only 15.4 million doses of smallpox vaccine, made in the 1970s, were available. Researchers soon discovered the doses would still be effective if diluted to one fifth their current strength. Diluting the vaccine would yield approximately 77 million doses, still too few to immunize the entire country.
In March 2002, however, it was revealed that 86 million doses of an identical vaccine created in the 1950s were being stored by Aventis Pasteur in a freezer in Pennsylvania. Preliminary tests on that supply suggest it is still effective, but it could take two years or longer before the drugs are licensed for use by the Food and Drug Administration. Health officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) say they favor waiting until the drugs are licensed. If diluted, the Aventis supply would yield 430 million doses.
The Department of Health and Human Services has signed or expanded contracts for 209 million new doses of the vaccine, which are expected to arrive early next year. Seventy million doses are expected to be on hand by the end of the year.
In June, the national Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, a government advisory committee, recommended inoculating approximately 15,000 health workers in designated hospitals and facilities. That number has since grown to approximately 500,000 people.
Public support for a faster and more broad vaccination program has grown as word spread of the expanded availability of the vaccine. In early August, Bill Frist, a heart surgeon and Republican senator from Tennessee, penned an influential essay for The New York Times saying "we should allow every American to make an informed choice as to whether to be vaccinated. We should immediately vaccinate all military personnel at a high risk of exposure, and allow voluntary vaccinations for those at lower risk."
On September 23, federal officials sent states guidelines for rapidly vaccinating the general population. Such mass immunization was apparently not thought necessary or likely just a few months ago. Then in early October, sources in the Bush administration said the vaccine could be made available to the general public in a matter of weeks, though more likely it would be released in stages and not reach the general public, absent an outbreak of the disease, until early 2004.
Opposition to Mass Vaccination
The American Academy of Pediatrics opposes mass vaccination before or even after a terrorist attack. Instead, it advocates "ring vaccination," vaccinating only those people who have contact with infected patients, then persons who may have come in contact with those persons, and so on. "ThatÕs the model for the successful eradication of smallpox throughout the world," says Dr. Robert Baltimore, a member of the American Academy of PediatricsÕ Committee on Infectious Diseases. "Ring vaccination is how smallpox became a disease of the past."
The CDC also supports ring vaccination, as well as preparations for mass vaccinations in case of a major outbreak.
Elizabeth Whelan, president of the American Council on Science and Health, called the administrationÕs plans to make the vaccine available to the general public in advance of an actual terrorist act "astonishing" and "dramatic."
In an October 3 Wall Street Journal essay, Whelan said the administrationÕs new policy will lead "millions of Americans [to] venture into what is basically a large, uncontrolled experiment." She poses a long list of questions she says cannot yet be answered, including how does one make an informed decision about whether or not to be vaccinated? In case of adverse effects from the vaccine, who would be liable? And do recently vaccinated individuals pose a threat to unvaccinated individuals at home or at work?
Whelan advocated "assured access to the vaccine only after it was confirmed that smallpox was indeed available as a terror weapon or even after exposure to smallpox had occurred."
Support for the New Policy
Other experts strongly endorsed the administrationÕs new policy.
"If the news reports are accurate, weÕre thrilled," says Jane M. Orient, M.D., executive director of the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons. Withholding the vaccine, according to an open letter to President Bush from Orient, "could cost thousands of lives in the event of an outbreak. The plan announced by the CDC to withhold smallpox vaccine until after an outbreak is fatally flawed, and would most likely lead to chaos and thousands of preventable deaths."
OrientÕs organization supports making immunizations available "with full disclosure and informed consent, to those who want them." In the past the organization has been vocal in opposing mandatory vaccinations.
"ItÕs a fantasy to believe that the control of small natural outbreaks provides guidance for large bioterrorist attacks," Edward Kaplan, a health analyst at Yale, told Newsweek. Terrorists could target airports or other transportation hubs, and by the time exposed persons began showing symptoms, they would be scattered across the country, making mass vaccination necessary.
Debate over Safety
Two issues are at the center of the controversy. First is the risk to health posed by the smallpox vaccine itself. According to data from the 1960s, when the vaccine was last used, approximately 15 out of every million people taking the vaccine will experience life-threatening side effects, and between one and two are likely to die from the effects. If 300 million people are immunized, approximately 350 people could die from complications. Particularly vulnerable are the elderly, the very young, pregnant women, and people with weak immune systems.
Recently immunized people, who carry a live virus called vaccinia, pose a threat to vulnerable unvaccinated people around them. "Anybody who comes in contact with a person whoÕs been vaccinated could be inadvertently infected with the vaccinia virus," according to Baltimore. "If, say, you choose not to be immunized, but people around you are immunized, there is a concern that the virus could spread to you."
This poses a special problem when medical personnel and first responders are vaccinated, since they cannot then come in contact with patients while they are contagious, which can last two weeks. Orient says the CDC believes at least 1.3 million volunteers will be needed to administer the vaccine.
Orient says other vaccines pose a greater threat and yet are widely used, pointing to the hepatitis b vaccine that has caused 440 deaths with only 20 million doses. Others say medical advances during the 40 years since the smallpox virus was last widely used could greatly reduce the death rate, though too little is known about how the disease reacts to modern medicines to be sure.
The second health issue is whether immunizing the general public can wait until after a terrorist attack using the smallpox virus is confirmed. While the vaccine is effective even if taken a few days after exposure, Orient says it will take up to a week for the vaccine to be distributed from national stockpiles, and then another 10 days to deliver 1 million doses. "Massive outbreaks in several population centers could mean a delay of up to a month to receive the vaccine, well after the window of opportunity to use the vaccine as a palliative."
Frist concluded his New York Times essay saying "I believe the threat of a smallpox attack outweighs the risks of providing smallpox vaccinations to a well-informed public. Along with the phased-in vaccination of military personnel and first responders, every American should be given this option. Such a policy is a sensible public health response that would enhance our national security."
Joseph Bast is president of The Heartland Institute, the publisher of Health Care News.
Good News = Our government is going to let us have the vaccines that our taxes paid for.
"ring vaccination"? Wow, a nice example of liberal b*llsh*it there. Sure, if smallpox breaks out in Chicago, or New York, or Los Angeles, hospital workers and government employees will have everything under control. They'll just implement something called "ring vaccination"-- no real crisis!
Imagine for a moment several smallpox cases breaking out in a major city, the resulting panic, the flight, and the inevitable spreading to other parts of the country. Does anyone who's not a child think that anything like a reasonable plan exists to deal with this crisis, something called "ring vaccination"?
Yes, I'm sure the folks in South Cental LA will line up in an orderly fashion and wait their turn to be vaccinated.
mmmnnn. hmmmmn...
I am not making any commission or profit from the vaccine so I imagine I have an ethical conflict of interest in promoting the non-vaccination if you have already been vaccinated. So sorry in making a judgement that should be reserved for a medical expert.
Oh, I was born well after those days.
For in addition to nuclear weapons, rogue nations like North Korea could be engineering terrible versions of smallpox. As Richard Preston, author of "The Hot Zone" pointed out in an op-ed in the New York Times last week, "Pox viruses are among the easiest viruses to engineer in the lab . . . . There is little doubt that Iraqi biologists know how to do it."The quote comes from this article. Despite this, I'm still in favor of taking on Saddam now; if we wait, our prospects will only get worse. :-(
Smallpox has a long incubation time between infection and dz symptoms, during the latent period people are not contagious, so yes, ring vaccination, for a bug like smallpox, is very appropriate, especially since the vaccine itself is a live virus with it's own possible complications, including death.
If it's that doubtful, then there is no need to be giving everyone a vaccine is there.
(P.S. How much you bench?)
Look at it like this: (1) If the bug is engineered so that a vaccine won't help, then there is no need to vaccinate - it won't help anyway. (2) If the bug has not been engineered, and the vaccine will help, then only those exposed need to be vaccinated. Smallpox has a long incubation time ~3 weeks, during this time you are not sick and you are not contagious. If you've been exposed to someone with smallpox, you go to the hospital and get a vaccine. The vaccine itself is a live virus, and has certain associated side effects, including death. The small threat of smallpox does not outweigh, the larger complications you'd see for mass vaccinations of the population. This is the biggest reason smallpox vaccination was stopped in this country in the first place.
As a front line health professional, you'll have to be vaccinated, and probably so will you're family. There is obviously a greater risk of infection to you and you're family than most of the population at large.
My experience was the opposite. I was first vaccinated at the age of, I suppose, 6 or 7. It didn't "take" (i.e., no scab formed). But, about twenty years later, before going overseas, a re-vaccination was required. This time, it "took".
A good working assumption is that the anthrax came from Iraq.
And it is a reported fact that the Iraqi biowarfare unit has experimented with camel pox -- which is, like chicken pox, a cousin of smallpox but no danger to humans. There is some concern that camel pox might be "engineered" into something else...
While Russia and the US are said to hold the only remaining samples of smallpox in the world, there are still occasional, limited outbreaks of smallpox in the third world. Each of these outbreaks provides an opportunity to collect a sample for culturing purposes. The most recent such outbreaks were in Pakistan...and Iraq.
So, a good working conclusion is that Iraq may well have smallpox within its biological arsenal.
Would they dare use it?
If they dared to use anthrax, then, probably, yes.
Ring vaccination came close to failing then, in an era of much less travel, fewer automobiles, and almost no air travel. Now we're supposed to put our confidence in it, rather than implement the mass vaccinations that used to occur?
So, all in all, I think smallpox is a much overblown, essentially irrelevant threat. That might not have been true a year ago, when vaccine stocks were low, but today, that's the true state of affairs. I wouldn't loose any sleep over it.
Thanks for your comments. You're a true and blue FReeper now;^)
Good News = Our government is going to let us have the vaccines that our taxes paid for.
If enough people are vaccinated, we won't have to worry about that 30% mortality, because herd immunity will stop the disease from spreading. The article does not point out that those at risk from the vaccine are at even more risk from the disease: the herd immunity of others will end up protecting them.
In 'years past' we didn't worry about planes flying into buildings either. We see where that got us!
Having been vaccinated, without regard to need, about >10 times in the service alone, (the military loved this in the '60s), and been vaccinated in '47 as a baby (HUGE scar), and throughout the 50's, with no ill effects whatsoever. I have no problems with this.
Since I was "nailed" in ONE day with typhus, typhoid, cholera, plague, and yellow fever shots (there were some others, I forget which), which laid me flat out for about 48 hours (it was an object lesson, since it was decided that since some senior Petty Officers, gwmoore included, had allegedly avoided getting shots, that making our group of (alleged) miscreants get them on the same day, would set an example for the lesser mortals ;-), I really don't fear more LOL.
I will gladly accept another vaccination, if it doesn't "take" I will happily KNOW i'm safe. If it "takes" again, then I will feel safe the same way, so its a win-win deal.
Keep the faith for Freedom
Greg
Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown
There was an smallpox outbreak in Iraq in 1972. The Iraqi biological weapons program began in 1975.
Ie: they almost certainly have the smallpox virus.
Second, it's a poor choice for a revenge weapon for a Third World country, because of the very high blowback potential.
For a Third World nation, yes. For a Third World dictator who assumes he would not survive a conflict with the US, no. He wouldn't care what happened to his own people, as long as he took the US down with him.
Third, there is no evidence that Saddam or anyone else is threatening us with smallpox, and a deterrent people don't know about isn't much use.
Before he started gassing people with biological weapons, he never warned anyone that he had such weapons.
Israel has had nuclear weapons for over two decades, and it's never openly admitted such. That doesn't stop their possession of nuclear weapons from being a fairly effective deterrent, though.
Fourth, although a smallpox attack could be nasty, the casualties would be unlikely to exceed hundreds or thousands, even with aerosol dispersal, compared to the millions or tens of millions of deaths that could easily be inflicted with the "Daschle" anthrax.
Why would it be 'unlikely' to exceed thousands of people? What distribution model are you basing this on?
In 1970, there was an smallpox outbreak in a West German hospital. One person managed to infect 20 people, even without ever leaving his hospital room.
So, in that one case, the multiplier was 20. One person infected twenty other people within a few days time.
The West German authorities were able to bring the outbreak under control by vaccinating everyone within the hospital and everyone Patient Zero came in contact to. This process is known as 'ring vaccination'.
If a terrorist were to release an smallpox aerosal within any US airport, it would be logistically impossible to use ring vaccination to bring it under control.
So I'm afraid your conclusions are based on a bit of wishful thinking. If Iraq were to attack the US with smallpox, the results could well be horrific. To date, the only way to stop such an attack would be a full scale smallpox vaccination program in the US. Assuming, of course, that Iraq hadn't developed a modified version of smallpox that vaccinia (the smallpox vaccine) wouldn't recognize.
That's why in an earlier post I was somewhat concerned when I found out that smallpox isn't hard to bio-engineer.
Ie: they almost certainly have the smallpox virus.
No, Iraq most likely does not possess the smallpox virus. We would have heard about it from Kamel, as I pointed out in my post. BTW, if we thought he had it, mass vaccination would be the preferred policy, not post-attack ring vaccination. Ergo, the US does not think he has it.
For a Third World dictator who assumes he would not survive a conflict with the US, no. He wouldn't care what happened to his own people, as long as he took the US down with him.
It is true that, as weapon of deterrence, the issue of blowback is less important. So this is not a dispositive point -- there are no dispositive points here, because we are dealing with the unknown. Nevertheless, Saddam is motivated by his ego, by his self-image as the leader who will restore the Arabs to greatness. Mounting a pin-prick smallpox attack against Westerners, who have plenty of smallpox vaccine, when it could easily lead to a world-wide pandemic that would wipe out much of the Middle East, doesn't seem like a very good plan if he wants to go out in a blaze of glory, does it? There are better ways to do what he needs to do, and he's already told us what they are ("WE HAVE THIS ANTHRAX YOU CAN NOT STOP US").
Before he started gassing people with biological weapons, he never warned anyone that he had such weapons.
Irrelevant, since the gas was not used as a deterrent.
Israel has had nuclear weapons for over two decades, and it's never openly admitted such. That doesn't stop their possession of nuclear weapons from being a fairly effective deterrent, though.
But everybody knows Israel has nukes. Nobody knows that Saddam has smallpox, -- indeed, all the indications are precisely to the contrary, he does not possess smallpox.
Why would it be 'unlikely' to exceed thousands of people? What distribution model are you basing this on?
There are several studies on this which you look up on the web, if you are interested. A smallpox attack would cause at most a few thousand deaths in the US under current conditions. The "Dark Winter" scenario, which projected a worst-case one-million deaths, was based on the assumption of limited vaccine supplies, which is no longer relevant, as I pointed out in my post.
In 1970, there was an smallpox outbreak in a West German hospital. One person managed to infect 20 people, even without ever leaving his hospital room. So, in that one case, the multiplier was 20. One person infected twenty other people within a few days time. The West German authorities were able to bring the outbreak under control by vaccinating everyone within the hospital and everyone Patient Zero came in contact to. This process is known as 'ring vaccination'. If a terrorist were to release an smallpox aerosal within any US airport, it would be logistically impossible to use ring vaccination to bring it under control.
It would be perfectly possible, because vaccination for smallpox can be done days after exposure. In general, the time course for responding to a smallpox release will be easily of the order days. Compare that to an anthrax release, where the treatment window is more like 24 hours -- or, if an antibiotic-resistant bacillus is used, there is no treatment window, only death.
So I'm afraid your conclusions are based on a bit of wishful thinking.
Actually, the wishful thinking is to focus on remote, hypothetical and overly-hyped threats such as smallpox , suitcase nukes and dirty bombs, when a far more serious, concrete threat has been explicitly communicated to us ("THIS IS NEXT WE HAVE THIS ANTHRAX YOU CAN NOT STOP US"). But, of course, there's a comfort factor in worrying about no-existent bogeymen, simply because they are non-existent.
If Iraq were to attack the US with smallpox, the results could well be horrific. To date, the only way to stop such an attack would be a full scale smallpox vaccination program in the US. Assuming, of course, that Iraq hadn't developed a modified version of smallpox that vaccinia (the smallpox vaccine) wouldn't recognize. That's why in an earlier post I was somewhat concerned when I found out that smallpox isn't hard to bio-engineer.
And the evidence that smallpox can easily be bioengineered is...?
The previous...totally "braindead approach recommended by CDC...of witholding the vaccine until an attack had taken place, was an open invitation to the muslim lunatic fringe to launch an attack. The same demonic mentality that revelled at the sight of our people jumping from the 95th floor of burning, collapsing WTC buildings would derive enormous satisfaction, driven by network TV, watching a non-immunized US population running around like chickens with their heads cut off seeking vaccine for their children and themselves.
``I have no doubt in my mind that Iraq does have the smallpox virus,'' said Dr. Ken Alibek, a top official in the former Soviet Union's biological weapons program before defecting to the United States in 1992. Source
Mounting a pin-prick smallpox attack against Westerners, who have plenty of smallpox vaccine, when it could easily lead to a world-wide pandemic that would wipe out much of the Middle East, doesn't seem like a very good plan if he wants to go out in a blaze of glory, does it?
I don't think that's likely at all: I still say that's a product of wishful thinking.
I'd say his ego is much more likely to want to take down as many of his enemies as he, regardless of many of his own people it would kill. Much as Hitler did during the last days of WWII when he ordered that all Germany's industrial infrastructure be destroyed so that nothing could fall into enemy hands.
And on what are you basing your assumption that any attack would amount to a mere 'pin-prick' attack?
The vaccine is useless unless it has been administered to a given population. The second it's actually needed, you're going to see huge distribution problems.
Think about it: in order for the vaccine to be truly effective, you have to administer it to 300 million people within the space of a week or so.
That ain't gonna happen. Hence a large part of the push towards vaccinating people before an attack actually occurs.
Irrelevant, since the gas was not used as a deterrent.
I have to disagree with that one, too. I'd say the fact that he know he's used weapons of mass destruction in the past without ever announcing that he had *any* would be supremely relevant in this situation.
The "Dark Winter" scenario, which projected a worst-case one-million deaths, was based on the assumption of limited vaccine supplies, which is no longer relevant, as I pointed out in my post.
Again, merely possessing enough vaccine for everyone isn't a complete solution: you still have to be able to distribute said vaccine in the event of a terrorist release of smallpox. And the problems of distributing 300 million doses within a few weeks are not trivial.
And that's assuming the virus isn't released outside the U.S. You don't think the U.S wouldn't be adversely affected by the loss of 1/3 of it's overseas markets?
It would be perfectly possible, because vaccination for smallpox can be done days after exposure.
????? Only if you know who's been exposed in the first place. If the virus is released inside an airport, or a football stadium, or a subway car, it's going to be virtually impossible to determine exactly who's been exposed.
But everybody knows Israel has nukes. Nobody knows that Saddam has smallpox, -- indeed, all the indications are precisely to the contrary, he does not possess smallpox.
I'm sorry, this is getting ridiculous. Even if there wasn't a lot of information to suggest that he does in fact have smallpox, the mere doubt would be enough to act as a deterrent.
Here's some sources, if you don't believe me.
In 1994, U.N. inspectors at an Iraqi medical complex found a freeze-dryer labeled ``smallpox'' in Arabic, said former inspector Jonathan Tucker. Source
Tests on Iraqi soldiers captured during the 1991 Persian Gulf War found that some had been vaccinated for smallpox, according to a declassified Defense Intelligence Agency report. Source
"It’s a 50-50 possibility that Iraq and Iran have genetically modified biological weapons and may have some of the potential to weaponize them today to be used as weapons of mass destruction,” U.S. representative Curt Weldon (R-Pa.) said yesterday. Source
And the evidence that smallpox can easily be bioengineered is...?
1. Pox viruses are apparently quite easy to engineer because they readily accept foreign genes.
3. "It was a simple idea, and it was wrong. You can engineer the body's response to the virus instead!"
And those are just the web page sources I could find. Now, if you want to contiune believing that it's not a likely method of attack, that's your choice. But I believe you're deliberately ignoring the available evidence.
Personally I give more credence to Hussein Kamel, the individual who actually ran the Iraqi CBW program until 1995 and spilled the beans on it to the West, forcing the Iraqis to come clean on their hidden program, than I would to Ken Abilek, and blowhard Soviet defector who recently raised eyebrows in the scientific community by starting his own HerbalLife-style quack medicine company.
And on what are you basing your assumption that any attack would amount to a mere 'pin-prick' attack?
On the basis of scientific studies which indicate that that a smallpox attack would not claim more than a few hundred to a few thousand lives, maximum, given the availability of sufficient vaccine to treat the entire population. Show me one study that indicates higher.
Think about it: in order for the vaccine to be truly effective, you have to administer it to 300 million people within the space of a week or so.
The rate of spread of infection and the likely time frame for a response is factored into the studies which show casualties maxing out at hundreds to thousands. Smallpox spreads slowly and will be easily contained. There are pros and cons to ring vaccination versus pre-vaccination. The latter would minimize casualties if there was an attack, while the former would minimize unnecessary deaths due to side effects of an attack (that the Bush administration favors ring vaccinations tells you they don't think Saddam has smallpox). Either way, total casualties would be small compared to an anthrax strike (routinely estimated at a kill of several hundred thousand to several million people per release, plus total economic loss of targeted cities).
I'd say the fact that he know he's used weapons of mass destruction in the past without ever announcing that he had *any* would be supremely relevant in this situation.
Saddam Hussein has never used weapons of mass destruction on his own people or anyone else. Poison gas is not a WMD, anymore than cluster bombs or fuel-air explosives are weapons of mass destruction.
If the virus is released inside an airport, or a football stadium, or a subway car, it's going to be virtually impossible to determine exactly who's been exposed.
Doesn't matter, because we already have a safe vaccine, plus isolation is straightforward and the time frame for post-vaccination is days, not hours.
In 1994, U.N. inspectors at an Iraqi medical complex found a freeze-dryer labeled ``smallpox'' in Arabic, said former inspector Jonathan Tucker.
Ooh, I'm, so scared!
Tests on Iraqi soldiers captured during the 1991 Persian Gulf War found that some had been vaccinated for smallpox, according to a declassified Defense Intelligence Agency report.
Guess what? I'm vaccinated for smallpox.
"It’s a 50-50 possibility that Iraq and Iran have genetically modified biological weapons and may have some of the potential to weaponize them today to be used as weapons of mass destruction,” U.S. representative Curt Weldon (R-Pa.) said yesterday.
Please, let's talk evidence, not hedged-around BS propaganda from the mouth of some no-name congressman.
And the evidence that smallpox can easily be bioengineered is...?
From one of your links: "So what are the chances of some mad dictator or terrorist group subverting the Australian discovery to build a viral Doomsday device? Pretty slim thinks Dr Annabelle Duncan, the Chief of CSIRO Molecular Science and former deputy head of a United Nations team that investigated the development of bio-warfare agents in Iraq following the Gulf War." So much for that theory.
Okay, you obviously have problems losing an argument.
You dispute the testimony of one of the world's top experts on bio-warfare by calling him, among other things, a Soviet blowhard, and yet seem to think that Iraqi defectors have absolutely nothing to gain by telling the US government exactly what it wants to hear.
On the basis of scientific studies which indicate that that a smallpox attack would not claim more than a few hundred to a few thousand lives, maximum... Show me one study that indicates higher.
How about showing me the study you're basing this on, as I asked?
Smallpox spreads slowly and will be easily contained
If it's so easily contained, why was it so hard to eradicate it from nature in the first place?
It took a huge global vaccination program run over years to get rid of it the first time around.
And no, I don't buy your argument that it will be easily contained. If released within an environment where you cannot easily tell who exactly has come into contact with the virus, such as an airport, it's going to be exceedingly difficult to vaccinate those first few victims.
In 1994, U.N. inspectors at an Iraqi medical complex found a freeze-dryer labeled ``smallpox'' in Arabic, said former inspector Jonathan Tucker. Ooh, I'm, so scared!
You ought to be. Unless of course you can come with a believable, legitimate reason as to why an Iraqi medical complex should have a freeze-dryer lying around labelled 'smallpox'.
Tests on Iraqi soldiers captured during the 1991 Persian Gulf War found that some had been vaccinated for smallpox, according to a declassified Defense Intelligence Agency report. Guess what? I'm vaccinated for smallpox.
Guess what? Are you also vaccinated against anthrax? Because apparently those same Iraqi soldiers apparently had been vaccinated against anthrax as well.
Oh, and by the way: unless you're currently part of a medical response team or a member of the military, you're probably not vaccinated against smallpox. Immunity starts to lapse after about 8 years for most people.
"So what are the chances of some mad dictator or terrorist group subverting the Australian discovery to build a viral Doomsday device? Pretty slim thinks Dr Annabelle Duncan...So much for that theory.
Um, only if you're willing to ignore the *other* references within that source who seem to think it is quite possible.
And I note that you overlooked the source that stated quite clearly "Pox viruses are among the easiest viruses to bio-engineer".
Anyway, if you want to believe that smallpox isn't really a threat, go right ahead. I'd like to be able to say it's your funeral, but unfortunately it might be ours as well.
Hussien Kamel, Saddam's son-in-law, is the reason we know about Iraq's CBW program. He ran that program, he spilled the beans after the UNSCOM weapons inspectors gave Saddam a clean bill of health, which lead to Iraq's forced disclosure of a massive anthrax and botulinum-based CBW program, he and his family were murdered by Saddam in retaliation. Try educating yourself before you pontificate about subjects you don't know anything about, like biological weapons, or our current confrontation with Iraq. Abilek is a phony self-promoter and pusher of quack medicine. Again, try educating yourself before you pontificate on subjects you know nothing about -- like Ken Abilek.
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