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Zogby was NOT the most accurate in 2000 Presidential poll
National Council on Public Polls (NCPP) ^ | January 3, 2001 | National Council on Public Polls (NCPP)

Posted on 11/01/2002 1:14:58 PM PST by for-q-clinton

January 3, 2001

PRESIDENTIAL POLL PERFORMANCE 2000

The accuracy of the election projections based on the pre-election polls of 2000 was surpassed only by the polls of 1976 and 1960, according to a study release today by the National Council on Public Polls. This year's final polls had an average error of 1.1 percentage points on the estimates for George W. Bush and Al Gore. The error on the third place finisher, Ralph Nader, was 1.3 percentage points.

These results were based on the work of 10 polling organizations that used traditional methods for conducting their polls.

Poll Bush/Gore
Error
Nader
Error
Harris Poll 0.0% 2.0%
CBS News 0.5 1.0
IBD/CSM/Tipp 1.0 1.0
ICR/Politics Now 1.0 4.0
Gallup/CNN/USA Today 1.0 1.0
Pew Research 1.0 1.0
Zogby/Reuters 1.0 2.0
ABC News/Wash Post 1.5 0.0
NBC News/WSJ 1.5 0.0
Battleground 2.5 1.0
Average 1.1 1.3

The 2000 election was a tie between Bush and Gore and was the closest election since the Kennedy-Nixon election in 1960. Democrat Gore had a slight edge in the CBS and Zogby polls, while seven of the other polls leaned to Republican Bush. The Harris poll had it tied. Four years ago, all 9 polls erred in favor of overstating Democratic Clinton. Challenger Nader was overstated by 7 of the 10 polls this year. Two got the Nader vote correct. All other polls overstated Nader's vote. Third party candidates typically get less support in the election than they do in the final pre-election polls.

Two other organizations used methods that previously had not been used. Harris Interactive conducted its polls on the Internet among a panel of e-mail users and forecast a tie. Rasmussen's Portrait of America poll was off by 4.5 percentage points on each of the top two candidates. Rasmussen had its interviews conducted by a computer playing a recorded voice with no live interviewer intervening.

Alternative
Method Polls
Bush/Gore
Error
Nader
Error
Harris Interactive 0.0% 1.0%
Rasmussen 4.5  


The ten traditional polls used random samples of telephone households and live interviewers to obtain vote intentions from likely voters. Screening questions that were unique to each poll identified likely voters. More detailed methods statements are available from the individual polling organization.

2000-Preliminary Gore Bush Nader Undecided Other
Election Results 48% 48% 3%   1%
Zogby 48% 46% 5% 0% 1%
CBS 45% 44% 4% 5% 2%
Harris (Phone) 47% 47% 5% 0% 1%
Gallup/CNN/USA Today 46% 48% 4% 0% 2%
Pew Research 47% 49% 4% 0% 0%
IBD/CSM/TIPP 46% 48% 4% 0% 2%
ICR/Politics Now 44% 46% 7% 1% 2%
NBC/WSJ 44% 47% 3% 4% 2%
ABC/WashPost 45% 48% 3% 3% 1%
Battleground 45% 50% 4% 0% 1%
           
Alternative Methods          
Harris Interactive 47% 47% 4% 0% 2%
Rasmussen 49% 40% 4%    

For this election, 2 of the 10 polls overstated Gore's vote while 7 overstated Bush. In the 1996 election, 8 out of 9 polls overstated Democrat Clinton. One poll each year neither under- or over- stated the winners' percentage.

Presidential Poll Performance 2000 Error Calculator

Final National Presidential Poll Results, 1936-2000

For more information about this and other polling issues, contact NCPP Polling Review members:

Harry O'Neill (Chairman)
Roper Starch Worldwide
609-921-3333 x228 (office)

 
Warren Mitosfky
Mitofsky International
212-980-3031 (office)
 

For more information, please contact us at: info@ncpp.org


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: accuracy; election; polls; zogby
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To: Gophack
See #14. Very interesting, IMHO...
21 posted on 11/01/2002 3:03:10 PM PST by eureka!
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To: Common Tator
Very interesting analysis. I imagine that you are right on the money. For example, the Democrats are all sending Capitol staff (here in CA) to one Central Valley District (17 -- Dem incumbent Barbara Matthews vs. Rep challenger Brian McCabe) because they are worried about her. We always know where the Dems have their big concern -- look at where they send their staff.

The race between Simon and Davis is going to be very close. I think last month I predicted Simon by 2-3 pts. I think it's Simon by 1, 45 to 44 with 6 for Camejo and 5 split among all the other candidates. Very, very close. Close enough where cheating could make a difference. Everyone needs to be vigilent at their polls and watch for improprieties. Volunteer to be a poll watcher in solid Dem areas. Democrats have stolen races in California before, particularly in the Central Valley. We need to make sure they can't steal the governorship.

22 posted on 11/01/2002 3:21:39 PM PST by Gophack
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To: Common Tator; Gophack
Anybody heard anything about the Dole race in NC?
23 posted on 11/01/2002 3:50:54 PM PST by NotJustAnotherPrettyFace
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To: NotJustAnotherPrettyFace
Everything I've heard has been positive, but that's just national media. I will say, however, that this morning I was listening to talking heads (Rep and Dem) on close races, and the Dem was very optimistic about Mondale and Carnahan, and on Dole she said, "It's a tough battle, but turnout will help us." Far less optimistic than the other two. The Republican said, "North Carolina is a Republican state, Dole wins."
24 posted on 11/01/2002 3:55:35 PM PST by Gophack
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To: drjimmy
What about Phil Graham, he's of arabic descent, but the key is, he's not an islamic animal, and he's american first.
25 posted on 11/01/2002 4:04:23 PM PST by Sonny M
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To: GOPyouth
Yes but his statewide polls were way off. He had minnesota for Gore by like 9, and Gore won by 2.5%, and had California in a dead heat and Bush lost by double digits.
26 posted on 11/01/2002 4:47:24 PM PST by rb22982
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To: for-q-clinton
Thanks for the great info! I have always wondered if there is some scorecard somewhere that ranks these organizations for accuracy over time. I would love to see something like a sports league standings table with a running accuracy rate and who is first, second, third, etc. I figure if there is such a chart the pollsters hide it. It would be great to whip out though when you hear all these different polls and spins.
27 posted on 11/01/2002 4:52:20 PM PST by JDGreen123
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To: for-q-clinton
And he screwed up Illinois thinking that Moseley-Braun would win--and he screwed up the SC primary on behalf of McCain. He's ok with national trends but doesn't understand the complexity of individual states or regions other than east or west coast.
28 posted on 11/01/2002 7:39:20 PM PST by MHT
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To: Common Tator
Well, Gore's worst error was in trying to win Florida, when he SHOULD have been back in his home state of Tennessee campaigning there. If only he had won TN, the whole question of Florida would have been moot.....
29 posted on 11/01/2002 7:41:59 PM PST by MHT
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To: rb22982
Zogby didn't do a Minnesota poll in 2000. Here's a list of his final state projections in 2000, along with the acutal results in parentheses:

California: Bush 44% Gore 47% (42%-54%)

Florida: Bush 46% Gore 48% (49%-49%)

Illinois: Bush 43% Gore 50% (43%-55%)

Michigan: Bush 45% Gore 51% (46%-51%)

Missouri: Bush 48% Gore 47% (50%-47%)

New York: Bush 37% Gore 56% (35%-60%)

Ohio : Bush 48% Gore 45% (50%-46%)

Pennsylvania: Bush 42% Gore 50% (46%-51%)

Tennessee: Bush 52% Gore 45% (51%-47%)

Washington: Bush 43% Gore 50% (46%-50%)

Wisconsin: Bush 46% Gore 48% (48%-48%)

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/2000/polls.htm


30 posted on 11/01/2002 8:24:14 PM PST by Ed_in_LA
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To: for-q-clinton
zogby poll is wrong its not a tie or the economy stupid

Paul Begala called his book "It is still the economy stupid" and now John Zogby appears and says the same thing. I wonder if Carville thought this plan up? Mind you this poll was taken before the Wellstone mess that the democrats did the other night.

The new zogby poll is out and John says its the economy that is on voters minds and that America is at a tie again.

I hate to shatter zogbys dream but from what I see the defense of this nation is number one and we are about to see a republican landslide next week in the 2002 election. Just like the profilers were way off with the sniper, so is Zogby with the 2002 election.

31 posted on 11/01/2002 8:36:27 PM PST by TLBSHOW
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To: Common Tator
." It was very like 20.

Funny, I seem to recall it was more like 54 in the house.

32 posted on 11/01/2002 8:51:43 PM PST by going hot
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To: for-q-clinton
Zogby supporters, like Clinton supporters will NEVER EVER admit their guy's corrupt.

Zogby polls are designed to influence.......not reflect. Much the same is true of ALL the media polls. Notice the FNC poll that Dick Morris gleefully reported that didn't coincide with ANY other polls and was completely off the mark.

33 posted on 11/02/2002 7:13:45 AM PST by OldFriend
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To: Common Tator
Good analysis, thanks for the information.Dick Morris asserted for a longtime that his internals(polls) had Clinton way ahead of Dole in the spring of 1996 and the election was in the bag.No wonder they were so cocky.
34 posted on 11/02/2002 7:28:27 AM PST by habs4ever
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To: for-q-clinton
Bump for future reference...
35 posted on 11/03/2002 9:20:48 AM PST by 69ConvertibleFirebird
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To: MHT
Gore did not campaign in TN because it is too conservative. He knew he had a better chance in FL.
36 posted on 11/04/2002 6:34:27 AM PST by Tennessean4Bush
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