I know this is old and has been posted in other threads (That's where I grabbed it from), but due to all the zogby talk in so many threads I wanted to bring this to the forefront.
Bottomeline: Zogby was NOT the most accurate. In fact there were several others that were more accurate. Also Zogby completely screwed up the NY Senate race.
Thanks for the effort. I hear too that Zogby's alleged accuracy does not translate into state races either. Plus, I think too that he has sold himself to the Rats. And yes, come election eve, he'll have more accurate numbers based on "late trends" to keep his reputation. I don't trust him these days...
posted on 11/01/2002 1:18:11 PM PST
I'm not carping, but do you know WHICH polls these numbers represent? In the last few days before an election pollsters sometimes adjust their numbers. Sometimes they change them the morning of election itself. That way they can, if they choose, use earlier poll numbers to influence voters and then correct the numbers at the last minute so they look better on the record.
As I recall, Zogby massaged his numbers at the last minute, but I don't recall the details.
posted on 11/01/2002 1:23:24 PM PST
Until they start polling dead people, dogs, and people who vote multiple times, all key democrat voter groups, these polls are worthless. That is the real reason the polls were wrong in 2000.
posted on 11/01/2002 1:26:22 PM PST
Could you post a link to the most accurate of these polls that has data on the various senate races?
posted on 11/01/2002 1:43:24 PM PST
Zogby and CBS were the only polls that showed Gore winning the popular vote. That's what happened. The other polls showed Bush winning the popular vote. That's not what happened. He nailed Gore dead on, and missed Bush by 2 percentage points. That's well within the margin of error.
We all know that's not how presidents are elected, but as for polls, Zogby is pretty dang accurate. Those who argue otherwise when it comes to his presidential polls are using million man math.
posted on 11/01/2002 1:52:54 PM PST
Thanks for posting this. Obviously one has to only look into the White House and see who is the President to see that Zogby was wrong. To think otherwise means you believe the lies of the RATS that Gore really won, which he did not.
I think that because Zogby is very tight in only using proven voters who voted in the last two elections, his polls are suseptable to error when turnout is higher than normal. That's because Democrats are usually more likely to stay at home than Republicans. So when turnout is high, he tends to err in favor of the Pubs. That would also explain why he was off on the Nader vote. Many of those voting for Nader were probably not regular voters.
posted on 11/01/2002 2:33:53 PM PST
Thanks for the great info! I have always wondered if there is some scorecard somewhere that ranks these organizations for accuracy over time. I would love to see something like a sports league standings table with a running accuracy rate and who is first, second, third, etc. I figure if there is such a chart the pollsters hide it. It would be great to whip out though when you hear all these different polls and spins.
And he screwed up Illinois thinking that Moseley-Braun would win--and he screwed up the SC primary on behalf of McCain. He's ok with national trends but doesn't understand the complexity of individual states or regions other than east or west coast.
posted on 11/01/2002 7:39:20 PM PST
zogby poll is wrong its not a tie or the economy stupid
Paul Begala called his book "It is still the economy stupid" and now John Zogby appears and says the same thing. I wonder if Carville thought this plan up? Mind you this poll was taken before the Wellstone mess that the democrats did the other night.
The new zogby poll is out and John says its the economy that is on voters minds and that America is at a tie again.
I hate to shatter zogbys dream but from what I see the defense of this nation is number one and we are about to see a republican landslide next week in the 2002 election. Just like the profilers were way off with the sniper, so is Zogby with the 2002 election.
posted on 11/01/2002 8:36:27 PM PST
Zogby supporters, like Clinton supporters will NEVER EVER admit their guy's corrupt.
Zogby polls are designed to influence.......not reflect. Much the same is true of ALL the media polls. Notice the FNC poll that Dick Morris gleefully reported that didn't coincide with ANY other polls and was completely off the mark.
Bump for future reference...
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